ES Weekly Plan | July 15-19, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟩 DAILY: OTFU | ENDS: 5642.50
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5615.25
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5246.75
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the market showed no interest in technical fills towards the breakout point of the prior 11-day balance area at 5585, a scenario that was highlighted as the most bullish in the previous Weekly Plan. While Monday’s and Tuesday’s sessions were relatively quiet, the rest of the week saw highly emotional price action unfold. Wednesday saw a trend day to the upside, followed by Thursday concluding as an outside day down. Friday squeezed higher to new all-time highs, coming within 7 handles of the Weekly/Monthly Extreme high of 5715, before sharply reversing into the close. I did mention that the quicker the market approached 5715, the more cautious I would be about chasing new longs, and this approach paid off as both Wednesday's overnight session and Friday’s session saw selling activity near 5715.
For this week, our main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the weekly one-time framing up by keeping the previous week’s low intact, which aligns with the Monthly VWAP. Buyers are continuing to establish value at higher prices following the breakout from the 11-day balance area. I've highlighted a distribution of interest on the added 4-week volume profile. Sellers' primary objective is to establish acceptance below this area, effectively ending the weekly one-time framing up and potentially adding downside pressure. Failure to do so keeps buyers in firm control.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5648, representing the upper end of Thursday’s main distribution, below which sellers were trapped. Holding above 5648, signaling strength, would target the high volume node (HVN) at 5688, as well as the Monthly Extreme High of 5715. Acceptance above 5715 would then target an upside continuation toward the resistance area from 5745 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5770, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 5648 would target the previous week’s low at 5615, aligning with the Monthly VWAP. Acceptance below 5615, ending the weekly one-time framing up, would target the support area from 5585 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5560, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the breakout point from the prior 11-day balance area, making it a crucial area for buyers to defend.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5648.
Holding above 5648 would target 5688 / 5715 / 5745 / 5770* / 5800
Break and hold below 5648 would target 5615 / 5585 / 5560* / 5530 / 5490
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you Smash! HAGW!