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ES Weekly Plan | January 23-27, 2023
🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 3 Day | H: 4033.50 L: 3901.75
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends: 3901.75
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 4 Month | H: 4141 L: 3502
Weekly Extreme High: 4105
Weekly Extreme Low: 3870
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow.
This chart doesn’t include Monday's shortened session. On Tuesday, an attempt was made to push the price above the previous week's high, but this was met with selling activity, creating an excess high which held for the rest of the week. Examining the volume profiles, we can conclude that the unfinished business at the highs remains unresolved. On Wednesday, sellers managed to end the daily OTFU, taking out four daily lows in the process. Note from previous week's plan:
"Overall, this directional move to the upside is not in any huge trouble as long as the support area holds (weekly breakout). Trouble for buyers kicks in with established acceptance below 3910".
3910 was the prior Weekly Extreme Low, which was tested and held on Thursday. This is the second time the weekly breakout is defended. The lack of initiative sellers at the highlighted support area attracted responsive buyers, resulting in trend day to the upside on Friday. The LOD on Friday was 3912.25, which once again respected the 3910 level.
For this week, the main focus will to be on the 1/18 spike base 3956, this is also where change took place on Friday’s trend day. Buyers want to maintain this breakout point, while sellers are looking to establish acceptance below it to put Friday's rally into question. Its worth noting that there is poor structure down to 3956 that may require some technical fills. The upside magnet is 4018, in the absence of interest in fills. Weekly OTFU remains intact with daily in balance.
The weekly level of interest is 3956. Holding above 3956 would target the high volume node 4018. Break and hold above 4018 would target the resistance area from 4070 (100% range expansion from the prior 3 week balance) to the Weekly Extreme High 4105, where selling activity can be expected. Note how this resistance area coincides with the prior 4 week balance high. It is also noteworthy that the Monthly Extreme High for January is at 4125, which was prior Weekly Extreme High, major confluence.
Break and hold below 3956 would target would target the support area from 3905 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3870, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with both the yearly ON and RTH opening price, making it a crucial area for buyers to maintain. Conversely, sellers want to see another test of the weekly breakout to end the weekly OTFU.
Upside levels of interest: 4018 | 4070 | 4105 | 4125 | 4160
Downside levels of interest: 3905 | 3870 | 3847 | 3785
Economic Calendar: January 23-27 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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