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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Note: Monday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Both during the holiday session and overnight, 7711 (Smashlevel) served as a key pivot. Sellers took control of it during the Euro session, leading to a test of Thursday’s true gap at 7691 (DT1), producing a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup. Given the importance of 7691, it was not surprising to see buyers step in and defend it ahead of the RTH open.
The RTH session kicked off with an inside-day breakdown after immediately rejecting 7711. Thursday’s true gap at 7691 was subsequently filled. As always, I don’t consider true gaps or poor structure officially filled or cleaned up unless it occurs during RTH. With the gap now officially filled during RTH, that is out of the way.
During the Initial Balance, the auction built value below 7691, a short-term bearish development. It was therefore important for buyers to find acceptance back above the gap area—something they ultimately struggled to do for the remainder of the session. Additionally, the VIX held above its resistance level at 15.24 throughout the session. The closing periods were marked by sustained weakness, with the auction coming a few ticks shy of tagging the final downside target at 7670 (FDT) (LOD: 7672.25).
Session Recap
Today’s session rejected the strength seen on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a fill of Thursday’s true gap at 7691.25 and a close back within Wednesday’s upper distribution.
As previously discussed, building value within Wednesday’s range would be a bearish development, opening the door to cleaning up the poor structure toward the prior ATH at 7648, a key inflection point.
The main objective for buyers is to regain acceptance within Friday’s range, making the composite LVN at 7711 a key level to reclaim.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7691, Wednesday’s high. Holding below 7691 would maintain downside pressure, targeting 7670 (DT1). Acceptance below 7670 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the prior ATH at 7648 (DT2), with 7633 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming 7691 shifts focus to the composite LVN at 7711 (UT1), with 7735 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7691.
Holding above 7691 would target 7711 / 7735
Break and hold below 7691 would target 7670 / 7648 / 7633
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.46 and 14.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7735 with VIX below 14.94 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7633 with VIX above 16.46 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
thanks Smash!