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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session opened within Thursday’s highlighted single prints, below 7747 (Smashlevel), leaving participants who initiated trades in Thursday’s upper distribution on the wrong side of the auction. It was therefore reasonable to expect sellers to defend 7747, which they ultimately did during the A-period. The rejection of Thursday’s upper distribution led to a clean-up of the poor structure and a rotation back into the lower distribution, where we closed out the week.
Session Recap
Thursday’s true gap higher led to a double distribution trend day to the upside, which was rejected on Friday. Friday formed an inside day after cleaning up Thursday’s single prints.
While an inside day technically does not end the daily one-time framing higher, it does suggest short-term balance.
The key in the short term is to monitor how the auction behaves relative to Thursday’s gap at 7691.25. Continued value development above this level would be short-term bullish and keep Thursday’s shift in tone intact.
Failure to do so, which would also mean that the auction is unable to build value within last month’s value area, would be a bearish development.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7711, Friday’s low. Holding above 7711 signals stability and targets 7735 (UT1). Acceptance above 7735 would signal intraday strength, targeting Thursday’s VPOC at 7757 (UT2), with 7775 (FUT), last month’s VPOC, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7711 shifts focus to Thursday’s true gap at 7691 (DT1), with 7670 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.
Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7757 / 7775
Break and hold below 7711 would target 7691 / 7670
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.24 and 13.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 13.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7670 with VIX above 15.24 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
thanks smash, great plans as always. I have been trading gold as of late as ES is sometimes not moving too much, if / when you go paid service, could you cover gold or other commodities too?
Thank you