— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session delivered solid trading opportunities, kicking off with responsive sellers stepping in at 7752 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1). Buyers’ failure to reclaim 7752 maintained downside pressure, resulting in a rotation toward the next level of interest at 7718 (DT1), last week’s unfilled gap.

As previously discussed, as long as acceptance is not established below 7718, effectively negating the gap, buyers are not in any trouble. The 7718 level delivered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF), triggering a rotation back to 7752 and ultimately coming a few ticks shy of tagging 7771 (UT1) (see Figure 2).

Buyers were unable to hold above 7752 early in the RTH session, once again introducing weakness. Building value within Thursday’s Initial Balance was a short-term bearish development, so it was no surprise to see the auction eventually fill last week’s gap at 7718 after extending the Initial Balance to the downside. The gap is now officially filled after being tested a couple of times during the overnight sessions.

The downside momentum notably stalled after filling the gap. The market formed a poor low, from which a closing squeeze unfolded during the closing periods. The poor low can be a clue of weak sellers, as stronger sellers should have been able to gain traction below a crucial level such as 7718. However, sellers remain in control of the auction in the short term, and buyers’ main objective is to shift value higher rather than allow the continued development of overlapping lower value on the daily timeframe.

Session Recap

Last week’s gap higher and subsequent trend day left behind poor structure, which the market has been cleaning up since then, ultimately completing the gap fill today at 7718. The easy work for sellers is done. To push the auction lower from here, stronger sellers need to step in, and today’s poor low suggests they have yet to emerge.

Today’s session closed between the weekly VWAP at 7743 and the monthly VWAP at 7714. Reclaiming 7743 and today’s excess base at 7747 would be a short-term bullish development, while acceptance below 7714 and the filled gap at 7718 would maintain downside pressure.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7747, today’s excess base. Holding below 7747 would maintain downside pressure and target 7718 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest. Acceptance below 7718 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7687 (DT2), 7669 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7747 shifts focus to the HVN at 7772 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest. Acceptance above 7772 would signal intraday strength, targeting Friday’s IB high at 7794 (UT2), with 7811 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7747.

Break and hold above 7747 would target 7772 / 7794 / 7811
Holding below 7747 would target 7718 / 7687 / 7669

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.86 and 15.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

Break and hold above 7811 with VIX below 15.22 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7669 with VIX above 16.86 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Smashelito’s ES/SPX Newsletter

ES Daily Plan | September 30, 2026