ES Daily Plan | September 24, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Today’s relatively uneventful session saw trading activity remain confined between the initial upside target of 5785 and the initial downside target of 5740. The overnight session saw a liquidation break when the European session opened, coming within 5 handles of 5740 (ONL: 5745.25). During this sequence, the VIX tested its resistance level of 16.92 (HOD: 16.95). The RTH session remained quiet, characterized by a 23-handle range, with the 5785 level capping the upside (HOD: 5784.50). It’s worth noting that buyers have successfully shifted the 5D VPOC (short-term value) higher from 5698 to 5771, serving as a bullish indication in the context of Thursday’s move from balance. Value continues to follow price.
Nothing changed contextually following today’s quiet session. The market continues to establish value at higher prices, above the 5730-40 LVN, which is bullish in the context of Thursday’s move from balance. Responsive two-sided activity is expected within the current 3-day balance area, while a directional move requires acceptance beyond its extremes. As always, a lack of continuation following a breakout or breakdown attempt typically triggers strong moves in the opposite direction.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5781. Holding below this level would target 5754 and 5740, with a final target at the prior ATH (non-back-adjusted) at 5721.25 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5781 would target the current ATH at 5797.50, with a final target at 5820 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5781.
Break and hold above 5781 would target 5797 / 5820
Holding below 5781 would target 5754 / 5740 / 5721
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.64 and 15.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5820 with VIX below 15.14 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5721 with VIX above 16.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you, love your analysis 🙋♀️
Thanks! Why is 5781 es the smash level?