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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
There’s not much to add after today’s rather uneventful session. As we discussed, it’s not uncommon for price action to be muted the day after an emotional session like Monday’s, which can make for tricky trading conditions. Traders who tried to trade Monday’s price action again today were unlikely to find much success. Notable aggressive buying activity was absorbed today above the prior ATH at 7838, as we can observe on the delta profile.
Contextual awareness is one of the most important skills as a trader, allowing you to adapt quickly as market conditions change. That said, there’s nothing bearish about today’s session despite the lack of upside follow-through, as the auction was simply digesting Monday’s move. The fact that only one of Monday’s six sets of single prints was cleaned up today is a bullish indication.
The overnight session delivered failures above 7838 (UT1) for traders working the short side, while weakness after the Euro opened found responsive buyers following a Look Below and Fail of 7816 (Smashlevel). The RTH session was choppier, with aggressive buyers attempting to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838, only to be absorbed by passive sellers. Non-emotional, choppy environments are great for scalping rotations off orderflow activity.
There was an interesting sequence in the M-period, the final 30 minutes of RTH. Another attempt above 7838 was made by aggressive buyers, which was absorbed and followed by aggressive sellers stepping in, forming a reversal bar with relatively large volume. The VPOC of the reversal bar was then retested, where aggressive buyers were once again absorbed, triggering downside continuation (see Figure 1).
Session Recap
Today’s session saw consolidation at the upper end of Monday’s range as the market digested Monday’s significant move, which is often the case following a trend day.
The developing weekly profile has formed a P-shaped profile following today’s session. The main distribution is of short-term interest, where we can apply the balance guidelines as a framework. The current ATH is weak, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion and suggesting that stronger buyers may be lower.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7816, the top of Mondat’s F-period single prints, which aligns with last month’s VAH. Holding above 7816 would target the prior ATH at 7838 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest. Acceptance above 7838 would signal intraday strength, targeting the Weekly Extreme High at 7855 (UT2), with 7889 (FUT), the 300% IB extension, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7816 would shift focus to 7800 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest, with 7775 (FDT), the HVN, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7816.
Holding above 7816 would target 7838 / 7855 / 7889
Break and hold below 7816 would target 7800 / 7775
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.84 and 13.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7889 with VIX below 13.56 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7775 with VIX above 14.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Have a good session tomorrow.
Thanks, Smash.