ES Daily Plan | September 2/3, 2024
ES Daily Plan | September 2/3, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Friday, weakness was observed during the morning session. However, after finding responsive buyers below the composite value, a reversal unfolded in the afternoon, resulting in the formation of an upward spike. As outlined in the Weekly Plan, nothing has changed contextually, as the market remains in a balanced state—now extending into a 10-day balance area. Balance guidelines apply.
Responsive activity is expected within this multi-day balance, while a more decisive directional move would require acceptance outside its extremes. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the multi-day balance area and monitoring for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). If there is a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5646, marking Friday’s spike base and aligning with the composite value resistance. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting 5676, with a final target at the resistance area between 5690 and 5700 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 5646 would open the door for a composite value traverse toward the support area between 5620 and 5610.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5646.
Holding above 5646 would target 5676 / 5690 / 5700
Break and hold below 5646 would target 5620 / 5610
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.70 and 14.30. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5700 with VIX below 14.30 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5610 with VIX above 15.70 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
