ES Daily Plan | September 23, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market gapped higher after a strong overnight session, negating the closing weakness from Wednesday’s FOMC. However, Friday’s session immediately ended the daily one-time framing up after breaking Thursday’s low, leading to the formation of a 2-day balance. The key question now is how strong Thursday’s break from balance was under the surface. As outlined in the Weekly Plan, a strong market will continue to establish value within the highlighted blue distribution, while the 5698 HVN will act as a downside magnet if it fails to do so.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5769, marking Friday’s spike base, coinciding with Thursday’s VAL. Holding below this level would target 5740, with a final target at the prior ATH (non-back-adjusted) at 5721.25 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5769 would target 5785, with a final target at the current ATH at 5797.50 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5769.
Break and hold above 5769 would target 5785 / 5797
Holding below 5769 would target 5740 / 5721
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.92 and 15.36. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5797 with VIX below 15.36 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5721 with VIX above 16.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks! Let's smash this week!