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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session was marked by two-sided activity, with responsive sellers stepping in at 7735 (UT1) overnight, which was highlighted as a potential Look Above and Fail area. During the RTH session, 7711 (Smashlevel) was rejected early on, leading to a rotation to 7690 (DT1), a level at which sellers ultimately struggled to gain meaningful traction below. The session then rotated back to 7711, where we closed out the week. Note the poor high, with three daily highs closely clustered together, contributing to the bullish imbalance on the weekly profile.
Session Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key question after notably rejecting the prices from Wednesday’s lower distribution is whether buyers can break the pattern of lower highs on the weekly timeframe that has been in place since the all-time highs were established.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7715 (UT1), Friday’s Initial Balance high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7684 (DT1), Friday’s Initial Balance low.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7697, a low volume node (LVN), which aligns with last month’s VAL and Friday’s halfback. Holding above 7697 would target Friday’s Initial Balance high at 7715 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest. Acceptance above 7715 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7735 (UT2), with 7757 (FUT), the daily NVPOC, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7697 would shift focus to Friday’s Initial Balance low at 7684 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest, with 7669 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7697.
Holding above 7697 would target 7715 / 7735 / 7757
Break and hold below 7697 would target 7684 / 7669
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.52 and 14.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7757 with VIX below 14.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7669 with VIX above 15.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
Thank you Smash!