ES Daily Plan | September 19, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Just a quick reminder that I have transitioned to the ESZ24 (December) contract. Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. I suggest marking 5629.75 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. Regardless of whether you choose to back-adjust or not, the crucial point is that my intraday targets remain the same.
The market displayed its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting, serving as a reminder of why it’s wise to step aside and let others handle the price discovery process. This approach helps preserve both your financial and mental capital for the rest of the week, which often provides better trading opportunities. If you avoided trading during the last four periods, you likely had a better session than most traders. The outlier upside target for today, outlined in the previous plan, was 5755. Today’s HOD: 5755.75. Take note of the significant excess high formed in the J-period after printing a new all-time high. This excess is particularly important as it was established following a failed attempt to sustain above the prior ATH at 5721, making it a key reference point that buyers need to negate quickly, as excess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of another. We have carried forward plenty of poor structure from the rally initiated September 11th, which will become relevant if sellers gain momentum and see a downside continuation. Prior to the excess high, buyers have a resistance area to regain between 5721 and 5731, where notable order flow activity took place during today’s session. Refer to the delta profile. The daily has returned to a 3-day balance following the weakness seen in the closing session, which included a break below Tuesday’s low.
The market demonstrated its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting, resulting in a new all-time high (5755.75). Following this, an excess high formed—a crucial reference to monitor going forward. The session closed at its lows, forming a downward spike, which is of immediate interest.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5682, marking today’s spike base. Holding below this level would target 5669. Acceptance below 5669 would then target 5642, with a final target at 5629 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5682 would target 5701, aligning with the weekly VWAP, with a final target at the resistance area between 5721 and 5731 (currently testing) under sustained buying pressure, where notable order flow activity occurred today.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5682.
Break and hold above 5682 would target 5701 / 5721 / 5731
Holding below 5682 would target 5669 / 5642 / 5629
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.28 and 17.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5731 with VIX below 17.16 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5629 with VIX above 19.28 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Asia session emotional! Smash how did you get 5755 OMG, million dollar level!
Thanks! What a move overnight!