ES Daily Plan | October 7, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

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Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | October 5-9, 2026

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Catalysts

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers initially defended the Smashlevel at 7838 overnight; however, they were unable to gain meaningful downside traction. This was a level buyers needed to reclaim to maintain continuation higher, which they ultimately achieved heading into the European session. Once reclaimed, 7838 was defended, triggering a notable continuation higher. The initial upside target at 7855 (UT1) was reclaimed and defended in the process ahead of the RTH session.

The overnight strength carried into RTH, with the session opening on a true gap higher. With overnight inventory 100% net long, the expectation was for a counter-auction (pullback), after the open. Failure to see one is typically a sign of a very strong auction. Two key references when gapping higher are the opening level and the overnight high, both of which buyers immediately took control of. Note how aggressive sellers got absorbed at the opening level, and also note how the pullback to the overnight high in the B-period offered a great opportunity to join the move (see Figure 1). The chart also shows notable selling exhaustion, which is always of interest in a strong uptrend, as late shorts became trapped when the auction failed to move lower.

Figure 1

The final upside target at 7895 (FUT) was tagged in the D-period. Regardless of the context, it’s always unfavorable to chase new positions near these levels, especially with VIX remaining above its support level. The 7895 level ultimately capped the upside, triggering a rotation lower. There was a notable delta divergence at 7895, opening the door for a reversal (see Figure 2). However, this is a more advanced setup given that it’s counter-trend.

Figure 2

Session Recap

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Monday’s directional move away from value was followed by a true gap higher today, which remained unfilled. The auction is in a state of imbalance across all timeframes, searching for new value. Apply your playbook accordingly.

Buyers are not in any meaningful trouble unless today’s gap at 7847.50, which aligns with the weekly VWAP and last week’s high, is negated.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7887 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7847 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7866, the base of today’s excess low. Holding above 7866 would signal stability and target 7887 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest. Acceptance above 7887 would signal intraday strength, targeting the 100% IB extension at 7915 (UT2), with 7943-50 (FUT), the 200% IB extension/Weekly Extreme High, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7866 shifts focus to the unfilled bull gap at 7847 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest, with 7811 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Holding above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915 / 7943-50

• Break and hold below 7866 would target 7847 / 7811

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.72 and 14.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7950 with VIX below 14.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7811 with VIX above 15.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.