Really clean read of that session. The part that stuck with me was the gap fill in A followed by sellers failing to hold below the overnight low. I've been measuring ES gaps in ATR terms and it lines up with what you describe: when the open lands outside the prior day's RTH range, the gap fills less often than its size alone would suggest, about 43.6% vs 48.1% expected over ~1,700 sessions since 2010. So a fast fill like Thursday's is already the less common branch, which probably made the failed follow-through below the overnight low more telling. Curious if you weigh gaps differently when they open outside the prior range vs inside it.
The 7778 Smashlevel doing double duty as last week’s low and the pivot for both the 7807 and 7754 paths makes it a clean line to judge the day on. Interesting that the overnight LBAF at 7778 lined up so well with the plan.
Thanks Smash!
Thanks smash
Thanks Smash. Have a great weekend
Weird session no? I closed my long during the B-period thinking sellers would put up more of a fight.
Thanks Smash !!!
Thanks Smash!
Really clean read of that session. The part that stuck with me was the gap fill in A followed by sellers failing to hold below the overnight low. I've been measuring ES gaps in ATR terms and it lines up with what you describe: when the open lands outside the prior day's RTH range, the gap fills less often than its size alone would suggest, about 43.6% vs 48.1% expected over ~1,700 sessions since 2010. So a fast fill like Thursday's is already the less common branch, which probably made the failed follow-through below the overnight low more telling. Curious if you weigh gaps differently when they open outside the prior range vs inside it.
The 7778 Smashlevel doing double duty as last week’s low and the pivot for both the 7807 and 7754 paths makes it a clean line to judge the day on. Interesting that the overnight LBAF at 7778 lined up so well with the plan.