— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Catalysts
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Given today’s uneventful session and the unchanged context, there’s no need for an extensive analysis. Buyers remain unable to reclaim last week’s VAH at 7866 (UT1), while sellers have struggled to gain meaningful traction below the prior ATH at 7848, keeping the auction in short-term balance. The last three sessions have closed within a couple of handles of one another, highlighting the lack of directional conviction.
Session Recap
Trading activity during Monday’s and today’s sessions remained contained within Friday’s range, suggesting the auction is coiling for a directional move, with tomorrow’s CPI release potentially serving as a catalyst. A meaningful shift in tone would require acceptance outside last week’s value area.
Reclaiming last week’s VAH at 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7866, last week’s VAH, which aligns with the prior SPX ATH (7816.17). Holding below 7866 would target the prior ATH at 7848 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest. Acceptance below 7848 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7830 (DT1), with 7807 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7866 would shift focus to Tuesday’s IB high at 7887 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest, with 7915 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.
Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915
Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.94 and 14.60. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.60 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.94 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! We should get a move tomorrow!
Thanks Smash !