— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into Friday’s session, the auction was in a short-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The key question was whether stronger buyers would step in following the cleanup of Monday’s structure or whether sellers could sustain downside pressure. Buyers reclaimed 7822 (Smashlevel) overnight and, after several attempts, regained 7848 (UT1) during RTH, ultimately breaking the pattern of lower highs on the daily timeframe and ending the week on a stronger note.

Session Recap

Friday’s session broke the pattern of lower highs on the daily timeframe, suggesting that stronger sellers remain absent from the tape. However, the auction remains in short-term balance, consolidating near the ATHs.

In the short term, two levels have my attention: last week’s VAH at 7866 and 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high.

Reclaiming 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7866, last week’s VAH, which aligns with the prior SPX ATH (7816.17). Holding below 7866 would target the prior ATH at 7848 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest. Acceptance below 7848 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7830 (DT1), with 7807 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7866 would shift focus to Tuesday’s IB high at 7887 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest, with 7915 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915
Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.58 and 14.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Smashelito’s ES/SPX Newsletter

ES Daily Plan | October 12, 2026