ES Daily Plan | November 23/24, 2023
For those who celebrate, Happy Thanksgiving!
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
The market continues to explore higher prices after breaking out from yesterday's inside day. The session established an excess high. As excess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of another, it becomes crucial to monitor the developments in the coming sessions. For those who celebrate, Happy Thanksgiving!
For the next two sessions, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4572, where sellers stepped in an defended today after the formation of an excess high. Break and hold above 4572 indicating a continuation of this imbalance phase, would target the unfilled daily gap at 4591, effectively negating today’s excess, as well as the final upside target of 4604, representing a weekly NVPOC. Holding below 4572 would target the unfilled daily gap at 4554.75. Break and hold below 4554.75 would end the pattern of higher lows on the daily and target 4544, as well as the final downside target of 4530.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4572.
Break and hold above 4572 would target 4591 / 4604
Holding below 4572 would target 4554 / 4544 / 4530
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.40 and 12.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4604 with VIX below 12.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4530 with VIX above 13.40 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Happy Smashgiving!!! 🙏
Happy Thanksgiving. Great content as always. Thank you