ES Daily Plan | November 22, 2023
Today’s session unfolded rather uneventfully as trading mostly remained within Monday’s middle distribution, forming an inside day.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Today’s session unfolded rather uneventfully as trading mostly remained within Monday’s middle distribution, forming an inside day. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the inside day and observing for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof (Rejection). If there's a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction.
I will continue to monitor the 4554 level, which capped today’s upside. An inside day break to the upside would primarily aim for traversing Monday’s upper distribution. Conversely, a downside break would target a traverse of Monday’s lower distribution, with the high volume node (HVN) just below at 4520 potentially acting as a downside magnet.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4554, which represents the lower end of Monday’s upper distribution. Break and hold above 4554 would target a distribution traverse towards 4569. Break and hold above 4569, indicating a continuation of this imbalance phase, would target the unfilled daily gap at 4591. Holding below 4554 would target the upper end of Monday’s lower distribution at 4544. Break and hold below 4544 would target a distribution traverse towards 4530, as well as the final downside target of 4520, representing the short-term value (5D VPOC).
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4554.
Break and hold above 4554 would target 4569 / 4591
Holding below 4554 would target 4544 / 4530 / 4520
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.94 and 12.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4591 with VIX below 12.76 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4520 with VIX above 13.94 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you 🌼
Hello Smash! Great analysis! Would be great if you decide to provide NQ levels ✊