ES Daily Plan | November 21, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today as the context remains unchanged, with the market still trading within the daily balance area after today’s inside day. As outlined in the Weekly Plan published on Saturday, the main focus this week was on Friday’s session from last week, which represents last week's lower distribution.
The RTH session kicked off with a liquidation break after buyers failed to sustain above 5942, despite the overnight session holding above this level. Ongoing war headlines continue to move the tape around. The current balance area was fully traversed during the initial balance (the first 60 minutes of trading), effectively clearing all downside targets in the process. Note how today’s session effectively filled the highlighted poor structure from Tuesday, which is a common occurrence during balanced conditions, as poor structure tends to act as a magnet in the absence of initiating activity. It’s worth noting that the 20D VPOC (medium-term) has shifted higher from 5870 to 5920, now aligning with the 5D VPOC (short-term value), indicating that the market is coiling for a directional move. There's no need to anticipate when this will happen; it’s better, as always, to apply the general balance guidelines.
Heading into this week, the main focus was on Friday’s range, which represents the lower distribution from last week. Responsive two-sided activity within Friday’s extremes has been the main theme this week, with the daily now forming a 4-day balance area. Another close at the top of the balance, and another need for initiating buyers to step in to avoid a rotation back to value.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5942. Holding below this level would target 5925 and 5911, with a final target at 5897 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5942 would target the resistance area between 5968 and 5979, effectively filling last week’s gap.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5942.
Break and hold above 5942 would target 5968 / 5979
Holding below 5942 would target 5925 / 5911 / 5897
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.06 and 16.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5979 with VIX below 16.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5897 with VIX above 18.06 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you buddy! Took longs when I had the chance around 10:30ish.
Nice work! Interesting M-period today 👀