ES Daily Plan | November 19, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session kicked of with a push higher that found selling activity at the bottom of Friday’s B-period single prints. The rest of the overnight session saw rotational activity around our intraday pivot of 5900, which became the most traded price by volume (VPOC). The overnight low was also the full session low, coinciding with VIX testing its resistance level of 17.04 (HOD: 17.00).
The RTH session was interesting early on, with an immediate push below the 5900 level. Sellers defended the subsequent pullback and retest of 5900, aiming for a downside continuation. However, aggressive sellers' attempts to push for new session lows were met by passive buyers, who effectively absorbed the selling pressure. A visual of this sequence has been added to the chart for reference. Once the 5900 level was regained following the sellers' failure, buyers took control of the auction, setting the stage for structural fills of Friday’s single prints. These fills were completed during the D-period, tagging the initial upside target of 5925—a crucial short-term level, as discussed. Holding above 5925 would have served as a bullish intraday confirmation, but buyers ultimately failed to do so, leading to a rotational afternoon session.
Assume sellers are in control as long as value is building within Friday's range, favoring a downside continuation. Buyers will ultimately need to fill the 5968.75 gap and establish acceptance back within the prior balance area and last week's value area to regain full control.
Early failure from initiating sellers resulted in structural fills of Friday’s single prints and the formation of a double distribution inside day. Balance guidelines apply, meaning to go with the break of the inside day and monitor for continuation or lack thereof. Friday’s extremes are immediate targets, which could unlock a directional move if breached.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5925. Holding below this level would target 5900, effectively filling today’s single prints, with a final target at 5879 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5925 would target the bottom of the upside gap at 5942, with a final target at the 5968.75 under sustained buying pressure, effectively filling last week’s gap.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5925.
Break and hold above 5925 would target 5942 / 5968
Holding below 5925 would target 5900 / 5879
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.42 and 14.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5968 with VIX below 14.74 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5879 with VIX above 16.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Brilliant stuff!
Kinda funny to watch the market negated the implusive move up!