ES Daily Plan | November 17, 2023
The daily has returned to a 3-day balance following the break of the previous day’s low. The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted from 4429 to 4523, confirming the recent directional move.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Important notice: I will be away from my desk for the next few days. As a result, the daily plans will be given in a concise format without commentary. Regular, detailed plans will resume on Monday, the 20th. Stay nimble.
The daily has returned to a 3-day balance following the break of the previous day’s low. This shift signals a healthy transition in the market dynamics from an imbalance characterized by initiative activity to a state of balance defined by responsive activity, as the market awaits further market-generated information. The upper extreme of the balance area has unfinished business, characterized by a poor high and untested overnight activity, while the lower end is marked by the large A-period excess from Tuesday. The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted from 4429 to 4523, confirming the recent directional upside move.
Sellers aim to keep defending the 4525 level, targeting the lower end of the 3-day balance area, while buyers aim to regain 4525, targeting the unfinished business at the highs and a potential upside continuation.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4525, representing the Weekly Extreme High from the Saturday-published Weekly Plan. Break and hold above 4525, indicating continued strength, would target the ON high at 4541, which remains untested in RTH, as well as the final upside target of 4555. Holding below 4525 would target the today’s low of 4502. In the case of continued weakness, the target is fills of Tuesday’s A-period excess towards the opening level of 4487.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4525.
Break and hold above 4525 would target 4541 / 4555
Holding below 4525 would target 4502 / 4487
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.96 and 13.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4555 with VIX below 13.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4487 with VIX above 14.96 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
4525 keeps providing points! Thank you and have a great weekend!
Have a wonderful holiday season my captain!