ES Daily Plan | March 9, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into Friday’s session, we discussed that a reclaim of 6850 would signal strength, while building value below the Smashlevel at 6815, within Tuesday’s lower distribution, would be a sign of weakness and open the door to another breakdown attempt. Sellers stepped in and defended 6850 overnight, marking the high of the full session. All downside targets down to the FDT at 6748 were tagged ahead of the RTH session, which opened on a true gap down. The RTH session established value clearly lower relative to Thursday’s session, following notable selling activity on every attempt by buyers to gain traction within Thursday’s range. The broken VIX resistance served as great confluence (see Figure 1).
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, sellers secured their first daily close below the multi-week balance range on Friday, with value established cleanly lower. The key now is to monitor whether the market will accept or reject Friday’s lower value, which will provide clues about what the market wants next.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6791, while failure to do so, meaning unchanged or lower value, would maintain downside pressure and keep the downward imbalance intact.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6762, Friday’s Initial Balance high. Holding below 6762 would target Friday’s excess base at 6726 (DT1). Acceptance below 6726 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6692 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6670 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6762 would target the multi-week balance low at 6791 (UT1). Acceptance above 6791 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6815 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6836 (FUT), the short-term value (5D VPOC), under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6762.
Break and hold above 6762 would target 6791 / 6815 / 6836
Holding below 6762 would target 6726 / 6692 / 6670
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 32.24 and 26.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6836 with VIX below 26.74 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6670 with VIX above 32.24 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks for this newsletter, have a great session, as you say, we have to stay agile.
Thanks Smash!