ES Daily Plan | March 11, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
During the overnight session, the auction started cleaning up the poor structure from Monday’s double distribution trend day, marked by the single prints from the L-period highlighted on the chart. I usually don’t consider poor structure truly cleaned up unless it occurs during RTH. That said, there are instances where an overnight cleanup is enough, especially in a strong trending environment, so it still carries meaning. In any case, it generally provides trade opportunities regardless of whether it happens during RTH or overnight, which is what truly matters. Buyers were responsive within the single prints area, offering a couple of look-below-and-fail setups at the Smashlevel, 6778.
The RTH session opened right in the middle of Monday’s upper distribution, not an ideal trade location, so patience was required early on. Just like the overnight session, RTH traded lower and partially filled Monday’s single prints, where responsive buyers were once again active. Singles can be seen as a gap. If they are only partially filled, it’s generally a bullish implication, opening the door for continuation if the top (or bottom if reversed) is reclaimed. Buyers remaining in Monday’s upper distribution were in control of the auction, and an upside continuation unfolded in the C-period, which led to a reclaim of 6819 (UT1). Did you notice how the auction was consolidating above 6819 (intraday bullish), building acceptance, while the VIX, unlike during the overnight session, dropped and held below its support level at 23.12? This development opened the door for a push higher, which ultimately unfolded in the H-period. The next level of interest at 6850 (UT2) was tagged, marking today’s high, from which a liquidation break followed.
Defending Monday’s single prints, which were partially filled, led to an upside continuation today. However, the afternoon session fully retraced these gains. Returning within Monday’s upper distribution keeps the context unchanged: Monday’s trend day remains intact.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6806, with the HVN at 6880 serving as the upside magnet. Weakness would be signaled by a return into Monday’s lower distribution, with 6741 as the key level for sellers to break or buyers to defend. CPI is on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6772, today’s excess base. Holding above 6772 would target today’s IB high at 6806 (UT1). Acceptance above 6806 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6839 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6880 (FUT), the HVN, under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6772 would shift focus to the breakout single prints at 6741 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6700 (FDT), Monday’s afternoon pullback low, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6772.
Holding above 6772 would target 6806 / 6839 / 6880
Break and hold below 6772 would target 6741 / 6700
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.02 and 22.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6880 with VIX below 22.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6700 with VIX above 27.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you
Have a great session tomorrow, and may life bless you with health and abundance. Thank you.