ES Daily Plan | March 10, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session kicked off with notable weakness, opening on a true gap down within the highlighted HTF area between 6692 and 6670, from which the market flushed hard. Liquidity was extremely light, meaning the tape was moving quickly and with a lot of emotion (see Figure 1). Emotional markets tend to attract emotional decisions, which is why it’s often best to take a step back and avoid getting caught in poor locations. We came a few handles shy of testing the weekly support area between 6570 and 6540, with an ON low at 6584, highlighting the intensity of the overnight move. The drop from the overnight open was retraced during the European session as the market returned to the 6692-6670 area.
The RTH session also attempted an immediate push lower, breaking the FDT at 6670 in the process. Did you notice how the VIX remained below its resistance level of 32.24 during this sequence? If you’ve observed the VIX levels recently, a common behavior has been for the resistance area to be breached, adding downside pressure, but today’s session diverged from that pattern. Regular readers are aware that chasing below the FDT is not an ideal trade location when the VIX is not confirming weakness by holding below its resistance. Change took place in the C-period, as sellers reclaimed 6692 and broke out of the Initial Balance range. From that point, focus shifted to Friday’s low, where today’s true gap would be considered filled. Note where today’s TPOC is located, right at Friday’s low, confirming it’s importance. The closing session saw a vicious news-driven squeeze, leading to a close back within the multi-week balance.
The overnight weakness was completely retraced today, with the auction closing back within the multi-week balance area and forming a double distribution trend day with notable single prints in the L-period. The key now is to monitor whether today’s closing strength will be accepted or rejected.
Intraday strength would be indicated by value building within today’s upper distribution, which would also imply a rejection of Friday’s value. The upside magnet is the HVN at 6880 if this is a failed breakdown scenario. Sellers aim to quickly negate today’s closing move by returning to today’s lower distribution below 6741.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6778, the lower end of today’s upper distribution. Holding above 6778 would target today’s high at 6819 (UT1). Acceptance above 6819 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6850 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6880 (FUT), the HVN, under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6778 would shift focus to the breakout single prints at 6741 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6700 (FDT), today’s afternoon pullback low, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6778.
Holding above 6778 would target 6819 / 6850 / 6880
Break and hold below 6778 would target 6741 / 6700
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.88 and 23.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6880 with VIX below 23.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6700 with VIX above 27.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks, Smash, have a great session.
What I learned from VIX was a game changer. Thanks for all the education, thank you from the bottom of my heart!
Looking at the VP during L and M and it was a lot compare to the rest of the session.