ES Daily Plan | June 19/20, 2024
Moving forward, I will treat today’s session as an inside day, meaning I will go with the break from it and monitor for continuation or lack thereof.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Just a quick reminder that I have transitioned to the ESU24 (September). Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. I suggest marking the ESM24 (June) settlement at 5437.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. Regardless of whether you choose to back-adjust or not, the crucial point is that my intraday targets remain the same.
Today's trading activity, during both the overnight and RTH sessions, occurred at the upper end of yesterday’s multi-distribution trend day, showing no interest in corrective activity despite yesterday’s five (!) sets of single prints. Sellers attempted to push lower during the D-period; however, passive buyers absorbed this effort, preventing sellers from even filling the first set of single prints at 5541.25. A replay of this sequence will be available on Substack.
Buyers managed to print a new all-time high, but we carry forward today’s high as unfinished business due to a non-excess high. Sellers might prefer an immediate upside continuation that ultimately fails, potentially triggering a strong counter-move after establishing an excess high. An immediate pullback without resolving the unfinished business is likely to continue attracting reloading buyers. As discussed, buyers remain unchallenged as long as they hold above Monday’s F-period single prints, with their primary objective being to shift the 5D VPOC higher.
Consolidation at higher prices followed yesterday’s multi-distribution trend day—a price action commonly observed after an emotional trading session, as the market processes the move. The lack of interest in even partially filling yesterday’s structure was noteworthy, highlighting the absence of meaningful selling pressure. Moving forward, I will treat today’s session as an inside day, meaning I will go with the break from it and monitor for continuation or lack thereof. Our weekly levels are the upside targets, while a downside break, effectively ending the daily one-time framing up, would target fills of Monday’s structural deficiencies.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5545, representing the lower end of our distribution of interest. Holding above 5545, signaling strength, would target the Monthly Extreme High for June at 5565. Break and hold above 5565 would target an upside continuation toward 5580, as well as the Weekly Extreme High at 5595. Break and hold below 5545 would target fills of today’s poor structure toward the support area from 5525 to the final downside target of 5515. In the case of continued weakness, the target is filling Monday’s D and C-period single prints toward the IB high.
CME - US Juneteenth Holiday Trading Schedule - June 18-20, 2024
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5545.
Holding above 5545 would target 5565 / 5580 / 5595
Break and hold below 5545 would target 5525 / 5515
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 12.84 and 11.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5595 with VIX below 11.76 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5515 with VIX above 12.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thanks for the guidance. Much appreciated
Good stuff. Love the graphic.