ES Daily Plan | June 17, 2024
Buyers continue to maintain control following Wednesday's CPI breakout and upside gap. In terms of immediate focus, I’m keeping an eye on Friday’s ESU24 (September) settlement at 5502.25.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan published yesterday, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESU24 (September). Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I have marked the settlements for both ESM24 (June) at 5437.50 and ESU24 (September) at 5502.25 from Friday’s session, reflecting a +64.75 point difference. I suggest marking 5437.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for tomorrow’s session are based on Friday’s session from the ESU24 (September) contract. Contract rollovers often lead to confusion. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to keep my past levels unchanged and simply deal with the roll gap. Regardless of whether you choose to back-adjust or not, the crucial point is that my weekly levels of interest remain the same.
Buyers continue to maintain control following Wednesday's CPI breakout and upside gap. Particularly noteworthy is the market's lack of interest in filling this gap, highlighting the absence of meaningful selling pressure. In terms of immediate focus, I’m keeping an eye on Friday’s ESU24 (September) settlement at 5502.25.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5502, representing Friday’s ESU24 (September) settlement. Break and hold above 5502, signaling strength, would target an upside continuation toward the resistance area from 5530 to to the final upside target of 5540. Holding below 5502 would target the support area from 5475 to final downside target of 5465.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5502.
Break and hold above 5502 would target 5530 / 5540
Holding below 5502 would target 5475 / 5465
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.20 and 12.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5540 with VIX below 12.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5465 with VIX above 13.20 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you, buddy, Let's have another tremendous week!