ES Daily Plan | July 17, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Keeping it brief as I'm still feeling under the weather. Overnight session rejected the highlighted spike area (ONL: 5673), ultimately resulting in a notable 45+ handle move higher. Buyers successfully shifted the short-term value (5D VPOC) higher from 5643 to 5700, serving as a bullish indication in context of the prevailing uptrend. Value continues to follow price.
Sellers failed to break the pattern of higher lows, encountering buying activity within Monday’s spike area overnight. Meanwhile, buyers managed to achieve another higher high, thereby negating Monday’s excess high in the process. The upward spike formed in the closing session is of interest in the short term.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is at 5716, marking the spike base. Holding above this level, accepting the closing strength, targets 5731 and 5747, with a final target of 5760 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 5716 targets the high volume node (HVN) at 5700, aligning with the Weekly VWAP. Acceptance below 5700, signaling intraday weakness, would open the door for a retest of Monday’s spike area from 5676 to 5666.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5716.
Holding above 5716 would target 5731 / 5747 / 5760
Break and hold below 5716 would target 5700 / 5676 / 5666
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.74 and 12.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5760 with VIX below 12.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5666 with VIX above 13.74 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
35PT gap!! And the initial narrative is organized around the opening level.