ES Daily Plan | July 15, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Beautiful absorption for a continuation higher during Friday’s session - Link
On Friday, the market fully retraced Thursday’s multi-distribution trend day after buyers picked up the PPI flush. However, a sharp reversal unfolded into the close following the cleanup of the overnight ATH at 5707.75. Friday’s closing session echoed the highly emotional price action seen on both Wednesday and Thursday. This two-sided activity may continue as long as we remain within Friday's range, with buyers aiming to further establish value above the highlighted composite distribution of interest.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is at 5674. Holding below this level targets 5648, with a final target at the poor low of 5630 in case of sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below would open the door to retracing Friday's M-period liquidation, targeting the resistance area between 5688 and 5698.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5674.
Break and hold above 5674 would target 5688 / 5698
Holding below 5674 would target 5648 / 5630
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 12.98 and 11.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5698 with VIX below 11.94 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5630 with VIX above 12.98 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you! Let's Smash!