ES Daily Plan | July 10, 2024
Price exploration higher continues
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Today's session was notably quiet overall, leaving little to analyze. Buyers continued their price exploration higher, resulting in yet another all-time high (ATH). The upside momentum stalled after reaching the initial target of 5640, and most of the session traded within the initial balance, defined as the range from the first hour of RTH. For those unfamiliar with my TPO charts, the initial balance range is always highlighted by a white vertical line along the daily profiles. Buyers successfully shifted the short-term value (5D VPOC) higher from 5531 to 5633, serving as a bullish indication in context of the prevailing uptrend. Value continues to follow price.
Buyers pushed the market to another ATH, but sellers managed to close within the previous day’s range, leaving an excess high in the H-period. The market is one-time framing up across all time frames. The primary objective for sellers is to break the pattern of higher lows on the daily, which could potentially trigger a liquidation break. Failure to do so maintains the prevailing upside pressure.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5628, representing today’s low. Holding above 5628, maintaining the daily one-time framing up, would target an upside continuation toward 5643, with a final target at 5660 in case of continued strength. Break and hold below 5628, ending the daily one-time framing up, could lead to a potential liquidation break, targeting the support area from 5613 to 5605. Acceptance below 5605 would then target the final downside level of 5585, marking the breakout point—a crucial area for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5628.
Holding above 5628 would target 5643 / 5660
Break and hold below 5628 would target 5613 / 5605 / 5585
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.02 and 11.98. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5660 with VIX below 11.98 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5585 with VIX above 13.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you!
Sneaky transformation from range to trend!