ES Daily Plan | January 3, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Similar to the start of the week, the overnight session kicked off with an immediate push higher to test the single prints dividing Tuesday's double distribution, only to be rejected. Failing to accept within Tuesday’s upper distribution resulted quickly in a full traverse of the lower distribution, tagging and exceeding the initial downside target at 5919.
In the event of a failure to hold below 5919, the target was filling the poor structure from that very quick drop, as mentioned on X. The 5919 level was quickly reclaimed and passive buyers managed to hold the pullback, ultimately retracing the entire drop and fully traversing Tuesday’s range.
The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s upper distribution, with the initial balance (the first hour of RTH) characterized by volatility. The A-period tested and rejected the lower distribution from Tuesday, while the B-period ended the daily one-time framing down. However, buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 5980 level, which would have been bullish intraday. The C-period opened at our intraday pivot of 5950, and from that point onward, buyers began to struggle to gain traction within the upper distribution. Change took place in the F-period as the pace to the downside accelerated, with momentum carrying into the G-period, which tagged the final downside target of 5880 almost to the tick. The break of 5898.25 marks the end of the monthly one-time framing up, and the weekly is now one-time framing down. The afternoon session saw a bounce after failing below 5880, closing near Monday’s and Tuesday’s lows, a short-term inflection point.
Today’s session formed a marginal outside day to the downside, following a look above and fail of Tuesday’s high. The December low at 5898.25 was breached, ending the monthly one-time framing up. However, the session closed back within December’s range after tagging the final intraday downside target of 5880, negating a trend day down. Immediate attention is on whether the market can regain acceptance within Monday’s and Tuesday’s range; failure to do so would signal continued weakness.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5919. Holding below this level would target 5900. Acceptance below 5900 signals weakness, targeting 5880, with a final target at 5856 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5919 would target today’s TPOC at 5946, with a final target at the resistance area between 5965 and 5975 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5919.
Break and hold above 5919 would target 5946 / 5965 / 5975
Holding below 5919 would target 5900 / 5880 / 5856
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.90 and 16.95. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5975 with VIX below 16.95 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5856 with VIX above 18.90 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Smash, I honestly can’t say thank you enough. Ever since I started following your levels and getting your chartbooks my trading has become so much more clear and less stress. I can’t ever say thank you enough.
Loving the chartsbooks! I’m just able to see the levels and areas so much easier and efficiently.
Wild session! Thanks!