ES Daily Plan | December 8, 2023
The market remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting additional market-generated information following today's inside day, while concurrently forming an inside week.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Today’s session negated yesterday’s triple distribution trend day to the downside, leading to a cleanup of yesterday‘s poor structure. The final upside target of 4593 was reached in the process, where the upside momentum significantly stalled. This aligns with the market's inclination to address structural deficiencies in non-breakout scenarios, such as yesterday's session, as discussed.
The market remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting additional market-generated information following today's inside day, while concurrently forming an inside week. The NFP data is set to be released before the market opens tomorrow. We continue to work with the same levels until a stronger directional move breaks us out of this balance area.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4593, a level where sellers have shown activity in the last two sessions. Break and hold above 4593 would target 4605, as well as the final upside target of 4615. Holding below 4593 would target a rotation back to 4579, as well as the support area from 4565 to 4557, in the case of continued weakness.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4593.
Break and hold above 4593 would target 4605 / 4615
Holding below 4593 would target 4579 / 4565 / 4557
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.64 and 12.46. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4615 with VIX below 12.46 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4557 with VIX above 13.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Great analysis as always. Keep up the great work brother.
Thank you, buddy! Another great day/ scalped longs and trusted your levels.