ES Daily Plan | December 6, 2023
The market remains in a short-term state of balance, characterized by two-sided activity and coiling for a directional move while awaiting additional market-generated information.
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Given the uneventful nature of today's session, which mostly stayed within the highlighted main distribution of interest in blue, and the unchanged context, there's no need for an extensive analysis.
The market remains in a short-term state of balance, characterized by two-sided activity and coiling for a directional move while awaiting additional market-generated information. As always, the longer a consolidation lasts, the more significant the move out of it tends to be. All levels remain unchanged.
Note from the previous daily plan that remains active:
“I have highlighted the main distribution of interest in blue on the composite volume profile located to the far right. Buyers aim to establish acceptance above the upper end of this distribution, targeting Friday’s upper distribution, while sellers aim to defend 4579, targeting a traverse to its lower end.”
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4579, which represents upper end of the main distribution highlighted in blue on the composite profile. Break and hold above 4579 would target fills of structure towards 4593, as well as the final upside target of 4605, located at the upper end of the 9-day balance area. Holding below 4579 would target 4565, as well as the the support area from 4555 to the final downside target of 4545.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4579.
Break and hold above 4579 would target 4593 / 4605
Holding below 4579 would target 4565 / 4555 / 4545
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.42 and 12.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4605 with VIX below 12.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4545 with VIX above 13.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.