ES Daily Plan | December 30, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Last week, the market worked on cleaning up the poor structure left by the multi-distribution trend day on December 18th. However, buyers fell short of completing the fills on Thursday, leaving an excess high that ultimately resulted in weakness on Friday, marked by a break below the 6071 level, signaling an intraday bearish state.
As outlined in the Weekly Plan, Friday’s session established a double distribution profile following a true gap down that remained unfilled. Staying within the lower distribution would be a sign of weakness, leaving Tuesday’s and Thursday’s buyers in a tricky spot. Buyers' primary objective is to reclaim the upper distribution, with the ideal scenario involving a gap fill and acceptance within Tuesday’s value. Sellers maintain short-term control as long as the gap remains unfilled.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6034, marking the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Holding below this level signals weakness, targeting 6005, with a final target at 5980 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 6034 would target 6050, with a final target at the resistance area between 6063 and 6071 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6034.
Break and hold above 6034 would target 6050 / 6063 / 6071
Holding below 6034 would target 6005 / 5980
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.76 and 15.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6071 with VIX below 15.14 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5980 with VIX above 16.76 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
WoW 5980 is of interest!
last 10 mins of RTH trading saw a fierce rally back to last downside target!