ES Daily Plan | December 11, 2023
ES Daily Plan | December 11, 2023
Starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESH24 (March) contract. In terms of immediate focus, I’m keeping an eye on Friday’s ESH24 (March) settlement at 4660.25.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan published yesterday, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESH24 (March) contract. Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I have marked the settlements for both ESZ23 (December) (4607.50) and ESH24 (March) (4660.25) from Friday’s session (+52.75 difference). I suggest marking 4607.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for tomorrow’s session are based on Friday’s session on the ESH24 (March) contract. Contract rollovers often give rise to confusion. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I personally prefer to keep my past levels unchanged without adopting this approach and simply deal with the roll gap. Nevertheless, regardless of your choice to back-adjust or not, the pivotal aspect is that the intraday levels of interest remain the same.
With a series of significant events unfolding this week, including CPI, PPI, FOMC, Retail Sales, and OPEX, it will be very important to remain adaptable and responsive. In terms of immediate focus, I’m keeping an eye on Friday’s ESH24 (March) settlement at 4660.25.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4660, which represents Friday’s ESH24 (March) settlement. Break and hold above 4660 would target an upside continuation towards 4676, as well as the final upside target of 4690, representing a high volume node (HVN). Holding below 4660 would target the support area from 4643 to 4633, where buying activity can be expected. In the case of continued weakness, the ESZ23 (December) settlement is located at 4607.50.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4660.
Break and hold above 4660 would target 4676 / 4690
Holding below 4660 would target 4643 / 4633
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 12.88 and 11.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 4690 with VIX below 11.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4633 with VIX above 12.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you, buddy,! Let's have a great week!
Thank you for displaying the December's levels too 🙏!
We're used to them.
All the Dara readings you've mentioned are impactful to the institutional trading desks.
In fact , these data are the catalyst for intraday wide fluctuations of the ES_F.
Additionally, are catalysts for reprising of equity indexes.
Until now, data support the idea of a soft landing which is the fuel for higher levels of ES_F and all risk assets.
Wish you a good week ahead!