ES Daily Plan | August 6, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | August 3-7, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Tuesday’s strength extended into the overnight session, as buyers continued to explore price in uncharted territory, gaining acceptance above 7784 (UT1) in the process. The retest of 7784 during the Euro session provided a clean level-to-level opportunity, with the auction rotating toward 7807 (DT2) ahead of RTH.

The RTH session opened on its third consecutive true gap higher. Given the context discussed in the prior plan, with price having moved significantly away from key value references, this was not an appealing gap to chase from a risk/reward perspective. The auction consolidated during the Initial Balance, as buyers and sellers competed for control of the overnight high and opening level, two key references when trading a gap higher. Notable aggressive selling came in during the B-period (-6200 delta), making it particularly interesting to monitor which direction the Initial Balance range would break.

The C-period extended the IB to the downside, filling the gap in the process. A gap fill does not necessarily indicate bearish development; rather, it signals some weakness from buyers. However, only acceptance back into the previous day’s range would change the tone. The D-period failed to fill the C-period single prints, opening the door to clean up some of Tuesday’s poor structure. Ultimately, sellers were unable to accomplish much, filling only two of Tuesday’s seven sets of single prints, as the market spent most of the session building value within Tuesday’s main distribution.

Session Recap

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The daily one-time framing up remains intact after today’s session. However, today’s third consecutive true gap higher failed to see continuation, and value was established within Tuesday’s main distribution.

This suggests that the imbalance phase is taking a breather, which is a healthy development given the notably one-sided auction over the past couple of days.

Short-term, I’m observing buyers’ ability to reclaim 7761. Failure to do so would open the door to further cleanup of Tuesday’s poor structure, as only two of Tuesday’s seven single prints were filled today.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness (read: technical fills of structure) would be signaled by a break and hold below 7735 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7761, the lower end of Tuesday’s main distribution. Holding below 7761 targets technical fills of structure toward 7735 (DT1), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7761 shifts focus to 7784 (UT1), with 7810 (FUT), today’s opening level, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7761.

• Break and hold above 7761 would target 7784 / 7810

• Holding below 7761 would target 7735 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.64 and 14.98 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7810 with VIX below 14.98 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 16.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.