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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Friday, buyers made an attempt at continuation, filling the second bear gap at 7766.25 in the process. However, the afternoon session was marked by weakness, resulting in a close at the session lows. The daily one-time framing higher remains intact despite the weak close, as Thursday’s low was not breached. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the week remained in the lower distribution, failing to migrate higher.
Session Recap
The weekly profile formed a double distribution, with a low volume node at 7711 separating the two distributions. The key in the short term is how the auction behaves relative to this LVN.
Continued value development above 7711 would be short-term bullish and keep Thursday’s shift in tone intact. Failure to establish value above the LVN would open the door to a rotation back toward the HVN at 7690, which could act as a downside magnet on weakness.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7711, the low volume node (LVN) separating last week’s distributions, which aligns with the weekly VWAP. Holding above 7711 signals stability and targets the monthly VWAP at 7735 (UT1). Acceptance above 7735 would signal intraday strength, targeting Thursday’s high at 7755 (UT2), with 7775 (FUT), the 20D VPOC, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7711 shifts focus to the 5D VPOC at 7690 (DT1), with 7660 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.
Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7755 / 7775
Break and hold below 7711 would target 7690 / 7760
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.16 and 13.72. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 13.72 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7760 with VIX above 15.16 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash !
Thank you!