ES Daily Plan | August 3, 2026
Key Levels & Market Context for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key question heading into Friday’s session was whether buyers could build on sellers’ inability to sustain Wednesday’s breakdown and make another attempt at filling the gap at 7525.25. Ultimately, buyers absorbed the early liquidation break on Friday, allowing the auction to fill the gap and close out the week above the developing weekly value area (see Figure 1).
Session Recap
The market initiated a move higher on Friday and successfully filled the gap at 7525.25. The key question now is whether buyers can sustain that initiative behavior and gain acceptance at higher prices. A strong response would see buyers build acceptance above last week’s value area, while failure to do so would open the door to continued rotational activity around the HVN at 7440.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7531 (UT1), the base of Friday’s M-period spike, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below Friday’s halfback at 7485 (DT1), coinciding with last week’s VAH.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7515, Friday’s Initial Balance high. Holding below 7515 keeps Friday’s IB breakout traders trapped and targets 7485 (DT1), with 7460 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7515 shifts focus to Friday’s spike base at 7531 (UT1). Acceptance above 7531 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7556 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7515.
Break and hold above 7515 would target 7531 / 7556 / 7578
Holding below 7515 would target 7485 / 7460
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.78 and 15.18 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 15.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7460 with VIX above 16.78 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!!
Thanks Smash!