ES Daily Plan | August 23, 2023

The market is currently in a state of balance, where two-sided activity is the main theme, while awaiting further market-generated information.

NVDA earnings tomorrow after close.

ES Daily Plan | August 23, 2023

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Contextual Analysis

Important notice: I will be away from my desk for the next few days. As a result, the daily plans will be given in a concise format without commentary. Regular, detailed plans will resume on Wednesday, or at the latest, on Thursday, August 24th. Stay nimble.

The daily remains in a state of balance following the failed breakout in the overnight session. The RTH session opened with a true gap to the upside that got filled immediately, and sellers started to establish acceptance within the previous day’s range, which is considered the most bearish outcome when experiencing an upside gap. There was no 30-minute bar close above or within the resistance area from 4417 to 4425, which was noteworthy. Today’s profile has unfinished business at its lower extreme. NVDA earnings tomorrow after close.

For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 4402, representing the 5% correction level, coinciding with the weekly VWAP. Break and hold above 4402 would target the resistance area from 4417 to 4425. Break and hold above 4425 would target the final upside target of 4443. Take note of the 4DB high slightly below at 4435. Holding below 4402, would target a completion of today’s imbalanced profile to the downside towards the support area from 4385 to 4375. Break and hold below 4375 would target the final downside target of 4354, essentially the lower end of the 4DB.

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Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 4402.

• Break and hold above 4402 would target 4417 / 4425 / 4443

• Holding below 4402 would target 4385 / 4375 / 4354

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.86 and 16.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 4443 with VIX below 16.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 4354 with VIX above 17.86 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

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Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.

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