ES Daily Plan | August 20, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

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Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | August 17-21, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers attempted to break and hold below 7706 (DT1) during the Asian session but ultimately failed to gain downside traction. During the European session, the auction consolidated within Tuesday’s range before headlines triggered a notable spike higher, tagging 7750 (UT1) in the process. Heading into the RTH session, we had a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7706 and a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7750.

The RTH session opened with a true gap up following the overnight strength. The overnight spike was fully retraced during the A-period, with the auction filling the gap and testing 7726 (Smashlevel), where responsive buyers stepped in. The failure to gain traction within Tuesday’s value area resulted in bullish continuation, with the Initial Balance extending to the upside. Notably, buyers came a few ticks shy of filling Tuesday’s true gap down at 7766.25 (HOD: 7764.75). The failure to fully close the gap suggests that stronger buyers were absent today. During the afternoon session, the auction returned to the Initial Balance range and consolidated, with the session ultimately closing back within Tuesday’s range. The market-generated information is a bit conflicting now, making trading conditions tricky. The daily is back to balance after breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established value above the prior day, but buyers were unable to fully fill Tuesday’s true gap, which was a sign of weakness. The session ultimately closed back within Tuesday’s range, making the short-term picture a bit tricky.

A bullish development would involve continued value migration higher and a reclaim of both the Monthly and Weekly VWAPs, which closely align with today’s VAH. Failure to do so, combined with acceptance back into Tuesday’s value area, would open the door to continued downside pressure.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7726, Tuesday’s opening level. Holding above 7726 signals stability and targets 7746 (UT1). Acceptance above 7746 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7766 (UT2), with 7779 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7726 shifts focus to 7706 (DT1), with 7681 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7726.

• Holding above 7726 would target 7746 / 7766 / 7779

• Break and hold below 7726 would target 7706 / 7681

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.64 and 14.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7779 with VIX below 14.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7681 with VIX above 15.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.