ES Daily Plan | August 10, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session offered great opportunities around our key levels, with the overnight session holding the pivot at 7727 (Smashlevel), which ultimately marked the low of the day. The RTH low was formed around 7747 (UT1), while the high of the day was capped by 7784 (FUT), our final upside target for the session.
Session Recap
After last week’s notable breakout from the 12-week balance area, the auction has entered a period of short-term balance, allowing the market to digest the move.
Buyers and sellers are always looking for fair prices to do business, and currently, that fair price is being established above the multi-week balance. This suggests that the consolidation remains bullish until proven otherwise, as the market continues to accept higher prices.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7810 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7750 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7784, the upper end of last week’s main distribution. Holding below 7784 targets the LVN at 7750 (DT1). Acceptance below 7750 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7725 (DT2), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming 7784 shifts focus to 7810 (UT1), with 7836 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7784.
Break and hold above 7784 would target 7810 / 7836
Holding below 7784 would target 7750 / 7725 / 7706
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.64 and 14.18 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7836 with VIX below 14.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 15.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!