ES Daily Plan | April 25, 2024
Today’s session saw price exploration both above and below Tuesday’s upper distribution, yet lacked continuation in either direction. However, weakness developed after-hours.
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Buyers faced challenges in reclaiming the immediate resistance area, ranging from 5115 to 5125, while sellers' attempts to breach below 5088 ultimately failed. This prompts me to keep today's plan brief, as the context remains unchanged. The overnight session displayed strength as prices explored above Tuesday’s P-shaped profile. Consequently, the RTH session opened with a small true gap higher, which was promptly filled, followed by a bounce. Although this bounce reclaimed the opening level, it failed to test the overnight high, quickly stalling any potential upside momentum.
After testing Tuesday’s high multiple times during the initial balance, the market saw a range extension to the downside during the C-period, likely triggering a few stops judging by the pace of the decline. Sellers succeeded in filling Tuesday’s B-period single prints and testing the halfback at 5088 but failed to hold below it. Despite the E, F, and G-periods probing below, no 30-minute bar closed below. The interesting part of this sequence was that the VIX, which printed a high of 16.38, with 16.42 outlined as resistance in the previous plan.
Today’s session saw price exploration both above and below Tuesday’s upper distribution, yet lacked continuation in either direction. However, weakness developed after-hours, leading us to trade within Tuesday’s lower distribution <5088. Buyers are aiming to reclaim control of the broken support area from 5088 to 5098 for another test of the highlighted low volume area >5125. Failure to do so would target the important 5063-5056 area, which is crucial for buyers to maintain.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5088, representing the upper end of Tuesday’s lower distribution. Break and hold above 5088 would target 5098, as well as the resistance area from 5115 to 5125. Acceptance above 5125 would then target the resistance area from 5145 to 5155—a potential reload area for sellers. Holding below 5088, signaling weakness, would target the support area from 5063 to 5056—which is crucial for buyers to maintain.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5088.
Break and hold above 5088 would target 5115 / 5125 / 5145 / 5155
Holding below 5088 would target 5063 / 5056
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.68 and 15.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5155 with VIX below 15.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5056 with VIX above 16.68 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
That was a lot of buying during the A period high. Didn't think it would reject like that. Assuming that was absorption and then liquidation? Will be checking for trade to hold below your 5088 - 5098 tonight. Thanks Smash.