ES Daily Plan | April 1, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Trade location for initiating new shorts was tricky heading into the week, given how far the auction had moved from multiple value references, and became even more complex following Monday’s close at the lows. The overnight session looked below the DT1 at 6367 and failed, triggering short-covering almost identical to how the prior overnight session played out. Buyers reclaimed 6412 (Smashlevel) and 6446 (UT1), setting up another RTH open within Friday’s upper distribution, effectively repeating Monday’s playbook.
Opening within Friday’s upper distribution, the key was once again to monitor the crucial 6446 level, which buyers failed to defend on Monday. Today was a different story, as buyers built value and acceptance within Friday’s upper distribution while defending 6446 almost to the tick. This short-term “change in tone” was accompanied by the VIX holding below its 27.94 support for most of the RTH session, something we haven’t seen in a while. After volatile A- and C-periods, the auction began building value above the final upside target at 6468. Combined with the VIX holding below its support, these conditions opened the door for a potential fill of last week’s gap. With key factors aligning for upside continuation, headlines came in favor of the move, and the market accelerated higher. As a result, a double distribution trend day was established, cleaning up the poor structure from Thursday’s triple distribution trend day in the process.
The potential for a short-covering rally, highlighted heading into the week, ultimately played out today, driven by supportive headlines. In the process, last week’s true gap was filled, and Thursday’s poor structure was fully repaired. The key question now is whether buyers can follow through and shift the tone from the past couple of weeks, or if today’s squeeze ultimately gives stronger sellers another opportunity to reload.
Today’s highlighted M-period spike, which probed into last week’s value area, is of short-term interest. The high volume node at 6635 is the upside magnet if the closing strength is accepted, while failure to do so opens the door to a fill of today’s poor structure. Acceptance back within today’s lower distribution would not be a good look for buyers.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6566, the M-period spike base. Holding above 6566 would signal strength, targeting 6611 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6635 (FUT), the Weekly Extreme High, under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6566 would shift focus to 6529 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6497 (FDT), the breakout single prints, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6566.
Holding above 6566 would target 6611 / 6635
Break and hold below 6566 would target 6529 / 6497
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.44 and 23.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6635 with VIX below 23.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6497 with VIX above 27.44 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash
Your guidance is invaluable. Thank you.