ES Daily Plan | March 6, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Buyers made an early attempt overnight to reclaim the Smashlevel at 6886, briefly exploring prices above Wednesday’s poor high. The attempt failed, as buyers continue to struggle to build value above the notable high volume node at 6882. Similar to the prior overnight session, a bounce unfolded during the European session, but it was met with selling activity at 6886.
The RTH session opened within Wednesday’s lower distribution, immediately putting traders from the upper distribution in a tricky spot. During the Initial Balance, the first 60 minutes of the RTH session (A and B periods), the auction attempted to gain acceptance back within Wednesday’s upper distribution, but traction was limited. Buyers failing to hold above the 6858 level signaled a weak market, as discussed. Downside pressure increased as the market rejected Wednesday’s trend day. Sellers gained control below Wednesday’s opening level at 6839 (DT2), while the VIX simultaneously began probing above its resistance level at 22.74. The Final Downside Target at 6808 was tagged in the F-period, cleaning up Tuesday’s poor structure. The auction formed a double distribution profile, and sellers then began building value within Tuesday’s lower distribution, once again trading near the lower end of the multi-week balance area. Despite sustained downside pressure, sellers failed to close the session at the lows as a closing squeeze unfolded in the L and M periods, leading to a return to Tuesday’s upper distribution and negating the developing trend day.
Wednesday’s double distribution trend day was rejected today, with the auction cleaning up the poor structure left behind from both Wednesday and Tuesday in the process. The market continues to lack conviction in either direction, requiring traders to remain extremely nimble.
Tuesday’s upper distribution is my short-term focus: Strength would be indicated by a reclaim of its upper extreme at 6850, while weakness would be signaled by value building within Tuesday’s lower distribution, opening the door to another breakdown attempt.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6815, the lower end of Tuesday’s upper distribution. Holding above 6815 would target the upper end of Tuesday’s upper distribution at 6850 (UT1). Acceptance above 6850 would signal intraday strength, targeting the HVN at 6882 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6904 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6815 would shift focus to the February low at 6791 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6748 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6815.
Holding above 6815 would target 6850 / 6882 / 6904
Break and hold below 6815 would target 6791 / 6748
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 25.26 and 22.24. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6904 with VIX below 22.24 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6748 with VIX above 25.26 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
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