ES Daily Plan | March 5, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key level today was the Smashlevel at 6808, marking the upper end of Tuesday’s lower distribution, and this level received immediate attention early in the overnight session, providing some long scalps (see Figure 1). After multiple tests, 6808 was breached, meaning the auction was back within Tuesday’s lower distribution, which was not a favorable situation for buyers. The initial downside target at 6784, marking both the prior halfback and the afternoon pullback low, was tagged in the process. Change took place during the European session as buyers reclaimed 6808, which notably shifted the tone of the auction. With the market back within the multi-week balance, intraday momentum shifts frequently, which is why it is so important to stay nimble and open-minded. Value building below 6808 was a “bearish” development, but you need to be aware of where that changes and be quick to reassess.
The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s upper distribution and pulled back early. The A-period came within a few handles of testing Tuesday’s single prints before responsive buyers stepped in. That response defined the session low and triggered a squeeze. By now, we know where the auction tends to return in the absence of initiating activity, obviously the high volume node at 6880, which is the most traded price by volume this year. Upside momentum stalled within this high volume area, as is typical when price reaches a well-established point of control. The key going forward is whether buyers can test the opposite side of the balance area, the all-time highs, following Tuesday’s failed breakdown.
Buyers managed to maintain upside momentum today, following Tuesday’s look-below-and-fail of the multi-week balance low, resulting in a return to the upside magnet, the high volume node at 6880. This is textbook auction behavior: failed initiating activity followed by a return to value.
The key question remains: is a test of the opposite side of the balance area in play? Today’s double distribution is of short-term interest. Strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6904, while weakness would be signaled by a break of 6858.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6886, today’s Initial Balance High. Holding below 6886 would target the singles at 6858 (DT1). Acceptance below 6858 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6839 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6808 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6886 would shift focus to 6904 (UT1). Acceptance above 6904 would signal intraday strength, targeting the singles at 6927 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6960 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6886.
Break and hold above 6886 would target 6904 / 6927 / 6960
Holding below 6886 would target 6858 / 6839 / 6808
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.74 and 19.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6960 with VIX below 19.56 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6808 with VIX above 22.74 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you as always, Smash!
Thanks as always Smash, much appreciated. Question: you mention 3 day balance (6718.75-6911.25). I can see that today and yesterday's session would make a 2-day balance, and that the March 2nd session range almost completely overlaps, but Feb 27th range is also completely engulfed by that range. Why / how do you determine that it is a 3 and not 4 day balance? Many thanks!!