ES Daily Plan | March 3, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into today’s session, tricky conditions and increased volatility were to be expected given the weekend headlines. However, without a sustained breakdown of the multi-week balance below 6805, there would be no meaningful change in the broader context.
Expected weakness was observed immediately overnight as the auction gapped lower, but the lack of follow-through near the 6805 level triggered an inventory correction almost instantly. This counter-move tagged DT1 at 6852, where sellers reloaded for another leg lower that ultimately breached 6805. The key was whether sellers could hold and build value below 6805, signaling a potential change in the broader auction context. Sellers failed to do so, with buyers reclaiming 6805 and building value above it during the European session. This ended up being a textbook look-below-and-fail of 6805, which opened the door for a return to the Smashlevel at 6880, the magnet in the absence of sustained initiating activity (see Figure 1).
In the RTH session, 6805 was tagged immediately, and 6880 was reached by the B-period. It was interesting to observe the relationship between 6880 and the VIX resistance level at 21.08 today. Sellers initially defended 6880 with VIX holding above 21.08, while buyers managed to decisively break 6880 in the E-period, with VIX dropping below 21.08. The next level of interest at 6904 (UT1) was tagged in the J-period, capping today’s upside. The stalling of upside momentum within the high-volume area was unsurprising, as this is typical behavior when the market reaches an area of prior balance.
An attempt to shift the market tone during the overnight session failed decisively, as sellers were unable to establish acceptance below the 6805 level. As a result, the market quickly returned to established value in RTH, meaning that, from an auction perspective, nothing has changed and the market remains within the multi-week balance.
I will continue to monitor where the auction wants to build value relative to the high volume node at 6880. Strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6904, while weakness would be signaled by a break of 6844.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6880, a high volume node. Holding above 6880 would target 6904 (UT1). Acceptance above 6904 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6927 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6960 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6880 would shift focus to the excess base at 6844 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6825 (FDT), the excess halfback, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6880.
Holding above 6880 would target 6904 / 6927 / 6960
Break and hold below 6880 would target 6844 / 6825
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.76 and 20.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6960 with VIX below 20.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6825 with VIX above 22.76 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Great stuff Smash!
Thanks Smash, have a great session! I'll take this week off, but I always keep up with your newsletters. What would I do without you?