ES Daily Plan | March 2, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
In Friday’s plan, we discussed that if buyers could not quickly reclaim the 6927 level and essentially negate Thursday’s trend day, the odds would increase that the value area from the composite profile created by merging the recent sessions would be traversed. A full traverse was achieved, with the market tagging Friday’s Final Downside Target at 6849, from which it then rallied roughly 40 handles (see Figure 1). Note how the market cleaned up the highlighted low volume structure from Tuesday’s session. Upside momentum stalled as the VIX retested its broken resistance level at 19.72 (see Figure 2).
Obviously, war headlines over the weekend are going to be challenging to navigate in the short term, but even without them, Friday’s session closed within a high volume area, signaling a lack of initiative and a rotational auction that demands a nimble approach.
Any meaningful change in the bigger picture would require a sustained breakdown of the multi-week balance below 6805, which would bring the levels from the Weekly Plan into play. The high volume node at 6880 is of short-term interest, acting as a magnet in the event of a failed breakdown.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6880, a high volume node. Holding above 6880 would target 6904 (UT1). Acceptance above 6904 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6927 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6960 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6880 would shift focus to 6852 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6829 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6880.
Holding above 6880 would target 6904 / 6927 / 6960
Break and hold below 6880 would target 6852 / 6829
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.08 and 18.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6960 with VIX below 18.64 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6829 with VIX above 21.08 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Have a great week, thanks for all the hard work behind this!