ES Daily Plan | February 27, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The market saw a bounce during after-hours trading yesterday in reaction to the NVDA earnings report. That bounce was retraced immediately during the overnight session, with the auction testing Wednesday’s halfback at 6948 (DT1). Multiple look-below-and-fails of 6948 then led to a push higher ahead of the RTH session, keeping Wednesday’s short-term shift in tone intact.
The Smashlevel at 6960, marking the breakdown single prints from the February 12 trend day, was not only our key level today but also the pivot from the Weekly Plan. The market immediately sold off from 6960 during the RTH session, quickly leading to a test of the crucial 6927 level, the 2026 opening price. The first sign of trouble was the failure to hold 6927, which we had discussed would signal weakness.
Once 6927 was breached, downside momentum accelerated significantly, with the VIX breaching its resistance level at 19.10 in the process. This was clearly not a strong response from buyers following Wednesday’s attempt to break away from the short-term balance illustrated by the composite profile. Wednesday’s true gap at 6912, our Final Downside Target, was tagged and exceeded during a highly emotional Initial Balance. The market dropped another 40 handles before a bounce unfolded. Did you notice the nearly perfect confluence with the market retesting 6912 from below and the VIX retesting its broken resistance, leading to another period of weakness? However, sellers failed to print a new intraday low, which triggered another wave of short-covering during the afternoon session. Note where the closing bounce stalled, right at 6927.
Wednesday’s attempt to shift the tone by moving away from short-term value failed decisively today, with selling triggered immediately at the key 6960 level. Wednesday’s true gap was filled in the process.
The key inflection point moving forward is today’s small set of single prints from the B-period, which includes the crucial 6927 level and last week’s high at 6931. Unless buyers can quickly reclaim this area, the recent tricky two-sided trade is likely to continue, increasing the potential for a composite value area traverse.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6927-31, today’s single prints. Holding below 6927 would target the HVN at 6904 (DT1). Acceptance below 6904 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 6880 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6849 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6931 would shift focus to 6960 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6976 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6927-31.
Break and hold above 6931 would target 6960 / 6976
Holding below 6927 would target 6904 / 6880 / 6849
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6976 with VIX below 17.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6849 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks for everything, mentor. The confluence with the VIX was truly a beautiful setup. I hesitated to take it because I didn't see anything in the flow that prompted me to do so, but what a great asymmetry that trade was!
Yes I noticed the pivot at 6912 and vix resistance level. Would love to know how these vix levels are calculated