ES Daily Plan | February 25, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update today, as the auction remains balanced, defined by responsive two-sided trade and limited directional follow-through. The overnight session was largely uneventful, holding within Monday’s main distribution, with a few short setups developing against the Smashlevel at 6869. The key today was the extremes of Monday’s main distribution, where we monitored for either downside continuation or a cleanup of Monday’s poor structure if either extreme was breached.
The RTH session breached the initial downside target at 6836 during the A-period, a move that should have triggered further weakness given Monday’s trend day. Instead, a look-below-and-fail of 6836 triggered a counter-move, highlighting just how tricky the current environment is. Traders simply can’t trade the prior day’s price action; they need to approach each session with an open mind. The lack of downside follow-through resulted in cleaning up Monday’s poor structure, something the auction likes to do when it is in a state of balance, as previously discussed. The VIX support level at 19.74 was notable today, offering good confluence, especially in the afternoon session (see Figure 1).
The market remains in a state of balance, defined by responsive two-sided trade and limited directional follow-through, making it crucial not to be stuck mentally in the prior day’s price action. Monday’s poor structure was cleaned up in the process.
Monday’s B-shaped profile lacked downside follow-through today, so the short-term focus now will be on whether today’s P-shape can attract additional buyer interest. I’ve merged the recent sessions into a composite profile to illustrate where value is currently established, with a directional move only likely if price accepts outside this area, creating a so-called imbalance.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6894, today’s closing pullback low, aligning with the Initial Balance High. Holding above 6894 would target 6911 (UT1). Acceptance above 6911 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6927 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6960 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6894 would target 6869 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6833 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6894.
Break and hold above 6894 would target 6911 / 6927 / 6960
Holding below 6894 would target 6869 / 6833
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.88 and 18.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6960 with VIX below 18.22 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6833 with VIX above 20.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Smash is the best
Thank you Smash!