ES Daily Plan | February 24, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session was marked by early weakness, with the market retracing all gains from Friday’s afternoon session. Friday’s excess low was tested in the process, where responsive buyers stepped in a couple of handles shy of the final downside target (FDT) at 6860 (ONL: 6867.50). Buyers were able to reclaim 6890 during the bounce that followed, but selling activity emerged at the same area where buying was observed on Friday, the afternoon pullback low and Smashlevel at 6910.
The RTH session opened within Friday’s value area and saw an immediate push higher following notable order flow activity pre-open (see Figure 1). The 2026 opening price at 6927, which was today’s initial upside target (UT1), was a significant level last week and continues to be important. A look-above-and-fail at 6927 quickly led to a rejection of the opening strength, marking today’s HOD. The VIX, which had been spending time above its resistance level at 20.32 overnight, once again breached 20.32 during the opening rejection and never returned below. The auction was one-time framing down intraday, tagging and exceeding the final downside target at 6860. Regular readers of this newsletter are aware that holding below FDT (6860), with the VIX holding above its resistance, is not an ideal environment for rushing into long trades. Buyers were ultimately unable to reclaim 6860, resulting in the formation of a classic b-shaped profile.
Responsive sellers remain active within the C-period single prints from the double distribution trend day on February 12. The failure to hold above the key 6927 level triggered a notable liquidation break, underscoring how tricky the current environment is and why, as discussed, we need to remain nimble.
The extremes of today’s main distribution have my attention moving forward. Buyers aim to reclaim 6869, marking the afternoon rally high, which would open the door to cleaning up today’s highlighted poor structure. Failure to do so, if the market accepts today’s cleanly established lower value, would maintain downside pressure in the short term.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6869, the afternoon rally high. Holding below 6869 would maintain downside pressure and target the lower end of today’s main distribution at 6836 (DT1). Acceptance below 6836 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6805 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6775 (FDT), the Weekly Extreme Low, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6869 would target fills of poor structure toward 6893 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6927 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6869.
Break and hold above 6869 would target 6893 / 6927
Holding below 6869 would target 6836 / 6805 / 6775
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.42 and 19.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6927 with VIX below 19.74 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6775 with VIX above 22.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
6920 area is so heavy!
Thank you!