ES Daily Plan | February 23, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
After Wednesday’s short-covering rally, the market pulled back on Thursday, building value within Tuesday’s range, which opened the door for sellers to attempt another wave of weakness. However, failed selling efforts were the theme of last week, with Friday’s session forming another P-shaped profile following a look-below-and-fail of the Smashlevel at 6860.
Friday’s session closed right around the 2026 opening price of 6927, positioned in the middle of the current multi-week balance area and between the upper and lower distributions from the notable trend day on February 12, a tricky area in the short term.
Buyers’ main objective is to find acceptance back within Thursday’s upper distribution, making 6960 a key level to reclaim. A bearish development would be a rejection of where value was built on Friday and Wednesday, making 6890 a key level for sellers to break.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6910—Friday’s afternoon pullback low. Holding above 6910 would target the 2026 opening price at 6927 (UT1). Acceptance above 6927 would signal strength, targeting the breakdown single prints at 6960 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6998 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6910 would shift focus to 6890 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6860 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6910.
Holding above 6910 would target 6927 / 6960 / 6998
Break and hold below 6910 would target 6890 / 6860
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.32 and 17.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6998 with VIX below 17.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6860 with VIX above 20.32 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks for the perspective, have a great session!
Always awesome. Don't leave home without it!!! Thanks for your hard work!