— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A peace deal hit the news feed ahead of the overnight session, triggering a significant move higher. The auction opened above the prior ATH at 7540, our final upside target (FUT), and continued to auction higher from there. A distribution was established around 7595 ahead of the RTH open, an area of prior balance (HVN). When RTH opens above FUT or below FDT, I take a more defensive approach and avoid chasing. This does not mean fading the move. Ideally, RTH would have offered an inventory correction, a pullback to potentially join the move, but even that would have been difficult given the significant overnight extension.

The RTH session showed no interest in an inventory correction, making the session difficult to trade outside of pure scalps. These conditions are challenging because chasing carries the risk of running into a liquidation break at any time, while shorting remains off the table. The next level of interest was the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632, aligning with the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, already tagged in the D-period. Tagging 7635 this early makes the rest of the week tricky. Acceptance above it, implying value building above the prior ATH, is contextually not favorable for fading, while failure to do so would open the door for a pullback that could be sizable without necessarily being meaningfully bearish. Mind you step for the rest of the week.

Smashlevels Recap

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Significant move higher today, following peace deal headlines. In the process, the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632 was tagged, where upside momentum stalled. Value development relative to this reference and today’s value area will be key in the short term.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7649 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7611 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7635-32. Holding below 7632 would target 7611 (DT1). Acceptance below 7611 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7595 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7574 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7635 would shift focus to today’s poor high at 7649 (UT1). Acceptance above 7649 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7670 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7694 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7635-32.

• Break and hold above 7635 would target 7649 / 7670 / 7694

• Holding below 7632 would target 7611 / 7595 / 7574

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.06 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7694 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7574 with VIX above 17.06 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract.

For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

On Friday, buyers defended the key level at 7380 (Smashlevel) during both the overnight and RTH sessions, leading to upside continuation and a clean-up of Tuesday’s poor structure. The upside was capped by 7455 (UT2).

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH. The key question is whether buyers can capitalize on last week’s failed breakdown and revisit the all-time highs, or whether sellers can establish a lower high.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7515 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7461 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7481, Friday’s M-period Low (ESU26). Holding above 7481 signals stability and targets 7515 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7540 (FUT), the prior ATH, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7481 would shift focus to 7461 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7435 (FDT), the ESM26 settlement (roll gap), under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7481.

• Holding above 7481 would target 7515 / 7540

• Break and hold below 7481 would target 7461 / 7435

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.62 and 16.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7540 with VIX below 16.76 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7435 with VIX above 18.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESM26 contract:

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7419.

• Holding above 7419 would target 7453 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7419 would target 7399 / 7373

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contract Rollover

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with responsive buying on Monday after the overnight session came a few ticks shy of the 4-week balance low at 7354 (see Figure 1). We discussed the potential for a short-covering rally on Monday if sellers were unable to sustain immediate continuation lower. The session ultimately formed an inside day.

On Tuesday, buyers initiated an inside-day breakout early during RTH (see Figure 2). However, this attempt resulted in a vicious bull trap that led to a notable liquidation break. The market filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the ATH, reaching 7250, from which a 150-handle reversal unfolded.

Wednesday’s session formed another inside day, with sellers building value below the 4-week balance low at 7354 and closing the session at 7275, which also marked the Monthly Extreme Low. Reaching this extreme so early in the month highlighted the emotional nature of the price action. It was a very tricky week to trade, with large swings in both directions.

Change took place on Thursday after a failed inside-day breakdown attempt, followed by a news-driven short-covering rally. In the process, buyers reclaimed both the 4-week balance low at 7354 and the prior week’s low at 7380. Heading into Friday’s session, the key was whether buyers could shift the short-term tone with follow-through, or if the bounce would present an opportunity for stronger sellers to step in.

The Smashlevel, the pivot for Friday’s session, was the prior week’s low at 7380. Buyers defended this level both overnight and during the RTH session, leading to upside continuation and a return to value (see Figure 3). The medium-term value (20D VPOC) sits at 7433, while the short-term value (5D VPOC) sits at 7416. Friday’s session closed at 7435.

The key question in the short term is whether last week’s failed breakdown of the 4-week balance area will trigger a retest of the all-time highs, where unfinished business remains, or whether sellers can step in and form a lower high, making the prior ATH at 7540 an important reference to monitor.

I will be switching to the ESU26 (September) contract on Monday, but Monday’s plan will include daily levels for both the ESM26 and ESU26 contracts, as the continuous contract on TradingView typically rolls over on Tuesday.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7366.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 7491
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contract Rollover

Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract.

For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is to stay nimble, as Options and VIX expirations, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover are all on deck, conditions that typically make order flow less reliable. From an auction perspective, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH.

The question now is whether buyers can capitalize on sellers’ inability to follow through and rotate back toward the unfinished business at the all-time highs, the opposite side of balance, or whether sellers can instead establish a lower high.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7481, Friday’s M-period Low (ESU26). Holding above 7481 would target the prior ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7605 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, where selling activity can be expected. This would complete a full traverse of the prior weekly balance area, a common behavior following a failed breakdown.

Break and hold below 7481 would target the ESM26 settlement (roll gap) at 7435. Acceptance below 7435 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7365 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7335, where buying activity can be expected. This support area, which coincides with the prior weekly balance area, is crucial for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would negate the failed breakdown scenario currently in play.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7481.

• Holding above 7481 would target 7540 / 7605 / 7635* / 7675 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7481 would target 7435 / 7365 / 7335* / 7300 / 7250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s closing weakness carried into the overnight session, with sellers immediately gaining traction to the downside. As outlined in the plan, a break and hold below 7250 (DT1) would signal weakness, something sellers ultimately struggled with. A perfect Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7250, coming a few ticks shy of 7230 (DT2), resulted in a reversal (see Figure 1). The remainder of the overnight session offered excellent reactions around all our key levels, with sellers stepping in at 7335 (UT2), aligning with last month’s VAL.

The RTH session was all about the 7335 level, along with the Smashlevel at 7275, which aligned with the Monthly Extreme Low. During the Initial Balance, sellers remained responsive at 7335, while buyers consistently stepped in on attempts to break below 7275 in the following periods. Change took place in the H-period, when Trump stepped in at the Smashlevel at 7275, triggering a squeeze and ultimately forming two sets of single prints. In the process, buyers reclaimed the prior 4-week balance low at 7354 and cleaned up Tuesday’s C-period single prints as the auction rotated back to the 5D VPOC at 7416.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session was marked by rotational activity early on, with buyers rejecting an inside-day breakdown after defending the key 7275 level multiple times. This resulted in a retest of Wednesday’s high, following a news-driven short-covering rally.

The key in the short term will be to monitor whether this bounce offers another opportunity for sellers to step in, or whether buyers can shift the tone with follow-through after closing back within the prior multi-week balance area.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), Tuesday’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the prior 4-week balance low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7380, last week’s low. Holding above 7380 signals stability and targets 7415 (UT1). Acceptance above 7415 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7455 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7380 would shift focus to the prior 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7336 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7380.

• Holding above 7380 would target 7415 / 7455 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7380 would target 7354 / 7336

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.58 and 18.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 18.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7336 with VIX above 20.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers maintained downside pressure overnight following an early period of consolidation around last week’s low at 7380 (Smashlevel). The final downside target at 7308 (FDT) was already tagged overnight, triggering a reversal ahead of the RTH open. The VIX breached its resistance level at 20.90 a couple of hours prior to tagging 7308. For newer readers: typically, with the VIX above resistance, I expect sellers to be active on bounces. The FDT (7308) can act as a downside magnet in an elevated VIX environment. Reversals off FDT can occur, as shorting directly into it is typically not an ideal location to initiate shorts. When FDT is breached with VIX still above resistance, I become cautious about seeking reversals.

In the RTH session, buyers attempted to reclaim 7380 during the initial balance after holding above 7354 (DT1), with the VIX dropping below its resistance. The C-period decisively rejected this attempt, while the VIX once again breached 20.90. Sellers then effectively controlled the auction, selling every bounce. Notably, 7308 provided multiple responsive reactions; however, into the closing weakness, it was ultimately taken out, tagging the top of Tuesday’s excess at 7275 in the process. 7275 is the Monthly Extreme Low, which I somehow overlooked, mainly because it typically doesn’t get hit this early in the month. This means the auction is currently emotional, which has been reflected by the price action, so stay sharp.

Smashlevels Recap

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Sellers are currently controlling the auction in the short-term, with both the daily and weekly timeframes in one-time framing down. Continued downside pressure is expected as long as buyers are unable to reclaim the prior 4-week balance low at 7354. Note that last month’s VAL at 7337 is another key reference buyers need to reclaim

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7300 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7250 (DT1), the 5% correction level off ATH. PPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7275, Tuesday’s excess base, aligning with the Monthly Extreme Low. Holding below 7275 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7250 (DT1). Acceptance below 7250 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7230 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7200 (FDT), the Weekly Extreme Low, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7275 would shift focus to 7300 (UT1). Acceptance above 7300 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7335 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7354 (FUT), the 4-week balance low, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7275.

• Break and hold above 7275 would target 7300 / 7335 / 7354

• Holding below 7275 would target 7250 / 7230 / 7200

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.46 and 20.98. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7354 with VIX below 20.98 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7200 with VIX above 23.46 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Another wild session in the books. In contrast to the RTH session, the overnight trade was rather mechanical, with a textbook Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup developing at 7395 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1). 7395 was revisited a few hours later, once again attracting responsive buyers. Sellers were unable to defend Monday’s Initial Balance Low at 7429 (UT1), which triggered a move toward the next level of interest at 7457 (UT2), where sellers were active ahead of the RTH open.

The price action in the RTH session was highly emotional. The A-period was marked by notable aggressive buying, with buyers holding the retest of 7457 after breaking above it (see Figure 2). In the process, the final upside target at 7478 (FUT) was tagged and exceeded. Buyers ultimately initiated an inside-day breakout, with the VIX breaking below its support level at 17.82. From there, the key focus shifted to whether buyers could hold above 7478; sustained acceptance above it would open the door to a trend day to the upside, unfavorable for fading, while failure to do so would signal emerging weakness.

The breakout attempt resulted in a vicious bull trap, which became the launching point for a sharp emotional drop of 200+ handles. The gap at 7299.75 was filled in the process, and the auction extended to tag 7250, the 5% correction level off the ATH, before buyers stepped in. A V-shaped reversal then saw price return to the Smashlevel at 7395, where sellers stepped in during the L- and M-periods.

Smashlevels Recap

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An early failed inside-day breakout led to a highly emotional session today. In the process, the auction filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the all-time high (7250).

Notably, the session closed back above both the 4-week balance low (7354) and last week’s low (7380), levels that buyers now need to defend, opening the door for a clean-up of today’s structure and a potential traverse of the large distribution. Failure to do so would keep downside pressure in play.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), today’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low. CPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7380, last week’s low. Holding above 7380 signals stability and targets 7415 (UT1). Acceptance above 7415 would signal intraday strength, targeting a structure clean-up toward 7455 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7380 would shift focus to the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7308 (FDT), where today’s intraday one-time framing ended, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7380.

• Holding above 7380 would target 7415 / 7455 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7380 would target 7354 / 7308

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.90 and 18.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 18.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7308 with VIX above 20.90 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A key reference discussed heading into this week was the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), which proved significant today. The overnight session saw a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of Friday’s after-hours low, coming within six ticks of testing 7354, where buyers stepped in (ON Low: 7355.50). A poor low actually formed, which was not a development that initiating sellers wanted to see. Initially, price action was contained between 7354 (DT1) and 7395 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1).

Buyers then reclaimed 7395, and gaining traction within Friday’s range opened the door to filling the poor structure, supported by the VIX opening below its support level at 20.26. The final upside target at 7478 (FUT) was nearly reached during the overnight session, typically making the RTH session more difficult to trade as patience is required.

The RTH session opened within Friday’s middle distribution and pulled back early toward the FS VWAP, where buyers were waiting. Buyers initially struggled to regain traction above 7449 (UT2) during the B-period, but the C-period reclaimed the level, opening the door to a test of Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7478 (FUT). Sellers stepped in at 7476.75, marking the session high. If we reflect on optimal trade location, why was 7354 a poor area to initiate shorts, and why was 7478 more favorable? Observe the large distribution on the composite volume profile for clues. In the short term, we can expect two-sided trade within this distribution, while the next directional move would require acceptance outside its extremes.

Smashlevels Recap

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The lack of initiating activity overnight at 7354, the 4-week balance low, attracted responsive buyers today. Friday’s poor structure was partially filled in the process, with sellers stepping in at Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7478, the final target for today.

The session closed within Friday’s lower distribution, a weak close relative to where the auction spent most of its time today, making it crucial to monitor for continuation or lack thereof.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7429 (UT1), today’s Initial balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7395, Friday’s excess base. Holding above 7395 signals stability and targets 7429 (UT1). Acceptance above 7429 would signal intraday strength, targeting today’s RTH open at 7457 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT), Friday’s ARH, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7395 would shift focus to the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7395.

• Holding above 7395 would target 7429 / 7457 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7395 would target 7354 / 7327

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.02 and 17.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 17.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 20.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into Friday, strength would be signaled by a reclaim of 7611, while weakness would be indicated by a failure to defend 7570, as outlined in Friday’s plan. Sellers breached 7570 overnight, leading to weakness. During the RTH session, the final downside target at 7537 (FDT) was immediately breached, while the VIX broke above its resistance level at 16.28. Regular readers of this newsletter are aware that holding below FDT (7537), with the VIX above its resistance level, is not an ideal environment for seeking reversals, a view that proved correct on Friday.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday’s emotional session formed a multi-distribution trend day, with four sets of single prints, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. Eyes are on the composite volume profile and how Friday’s after-hours weakness approached the lower end of a large distribution formed during the prior weekly balance. The key question is whether initiating sellers can follow through or if some responsive activity is on deck first.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7420 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7395, Friday’s excess base. Holding below 7395 maintains downside, targeting the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7395 would shift focus to the 20D VPOC at 7420 (UT1). Acceptance above 7420 would signal intraday strength, targeting fills of poor structure toward 7449 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT), the afternoon rally high, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7395.

• Break and hold above 7395 would target 7420 / 7449 / 7478

• Holding below 7395 would target 7354 / 7327

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.76 and 20.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 20.26 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 22.76 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with an immediate upside continuation on Monday, tagging the 50% balance extension from the 2-week balance area at 7633, where sellers stepped in. Prior to that, passive buyers successfully absorbed aggressive selling pressure at the key level of 7585 (see Figure 1).

Tuesday’s session formed a P-shaped inside day, with sellers once again stepping in at 7633. The current ATH at 7632.25 is considered weak, making it a reference to carry forward as unfinished business.

Heading into Wednesday’s session, the Smashlevel (Pivot) was Tuesday’s afternoon pullback low at 7615. This level broke during the overnight session, suggesting that Tuesday’s inventory from the main distribution was trapped heading into the RTH session, as discussed on X.

Wednesday’s RTH session immediately tested 7615, where sellers stepped in (see Figure 2). This sequence marked the RTH high, from which a b-shaped profile was established.

On Thursday, the RTH session opened with a true gap down following overnight weakness into the critical HVN from the prior week’s 2-day balance around 7540s, where both last week’s VAL (7537) and last month’s VAH (7528) were located. As discussed all week, a shift in tone required a break of this HVN, which sellers ultimately failed to achieve on Thursday, triggering a short-covering rally.

Heading into Friday, strength would be signaled by a reclaim of 7611, while weakness would be indicated by a failure to defend 7570, as outlined in Friday’s plan. The 7570 level was lost overnight, leading to another test of the HVN. This time, sellers gained traction, resulting in a vicious liquidation break and ending the weekly one-time framing up.

The auction not only reached the expected downside magnet at 7420, but in after-hours trading also fully traversed the prior 2-week balance area, a common target following a failed balance breakout (see Figure 3).

The key question now is whether Friday’s weakness was driven by stronger sellers or weak-handed longs getting flushed. Pullbacks from weak or poor highs in an uptrend are typically driven by the latter rather than by strong selling.

The auction has now reached the lower end of the prior 2-week balance area, typically an area where initiating new shorts is unfavorable. Given the notably poor structure from Friday’s session, including four sets of single prints, any attempt at immediate downside continuation that fails could trigger a short-covering rally. The prior 2-week balance low at 7354 now becomes a key short-term reference.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 7553
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 4-Week → High: 7632.25 / Low: 7354.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s multi-distribution trend day down, which brought an end to the weekly one-time framing up.

Failure to defend the 2-week balance breakout triggered a rotation back toward the 7420 HVN, where multiple weekly VPOCs are stacked, and a full traversal of the balance area. How the auction behaves around the prior 2-week balance low at 7354, now marking the 4-week balance low, early this week will be key in gauging directional intent.

Value building above 7354, while rejecting any immediate downside continuation, would set the stage for a clean-up of Friday’s poor structure toward 7449 and 7515, potential reload areas for sellers. Failure to do so would open the door to filling the gap at 7299.75, where a gap-fill reversal is of interest.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7354, the 4-week balance low. Holding above 7354 would target fills of Friday’s poor structure toward 7449. Acceptance above 7449 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward 7515, as well as the resistance area between 7565 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7595, where selling activity can be expected. A weekly close back within the previous week’s value area would signal strength, confirming that Friday’s weakness was driven by long liquidation rather than stronger sellers.

Break and hold below 7354, implying a 4-week balance breakdown, would target the unfilled gap at 7299. Acceptance below 7299 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7230 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7200, where buying activity can be expected. Note how both the MA50 and YTD Low VWAP are closely aligned with this support, making it a crucial area for buyers to defend. Additionally, a break of this support would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7354.

• Holding above 7354 would target 7449 / 7515 / 7565 / 7595* / 7632

• Break and hold below 7354 would target 7299 / 7230 / 7200* / 7160 / 7092

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question heading into today’s session was whether the pullback that began on Wednesday was driven by stronger sellers, or whether it was simply a technical fill of last week’s poor structure, flushing weak-handed longs in the process. Generally, a pullback from a weak or poor high in an uptrend is driven by the latter rather than by stronger sellers, as discussed. With that in mind, it was reasonable to expect responsive buyers to step in and defend the HVN from last week’s 2-day balance area, given the significant confluence it offered. Does this thought process make sense to you?

If the ATH had instead been a well-auctioned high in the form of excess, it would potentially be a different story, as the upside auction could be considered complete. Nothing should be treated in absolutes, but collecting market-generated information helps shape expectations and, more importantly, prepares you for scenarios where things don’t unfold as expected.

Overnight, a distribution was established within last week’s HVN, with responsive buyers stepping in on attempts to break 7537 (DT1). As discussed, a shift in tone required a failure to defend the critical HVN. The RTH session opened with a true gap down into last Thursday’s single prints. Notably, sellers failed to clean them up, with price reversing a few handles above 7537, and they generally struggled to gain control of the opening level.

Sellers essentially had one clear objective: to prevent acceptance back into Wednesday’s range, which is what stronger sellers would typically do. They ultimately failed to accomplish this, resulting in a short-covering rally and confirming that the recent weakness was not driven by stronger sellers. Last week’s high at 7611 (UT2) was revisited in the closing session, from which a pullback developed.

Smashlevels Recap

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A shift in tone required a break of the HVN from last week’s 2-day balance, an objective sellers failed to achieve today. This triggered a squeeze, resulting in three sets of single prints and a return to the upper HVN.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7611 (UT1), last week’s high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7570 (DT1), today’s Initial Balance high, where change took place.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7587, the F-period single prints. Holding above 7587 signals stability and targets last week’s high at 7611 (UT1). Acceptance above 7611 would signal intraday strength, targeting the ATH at 7632 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7661 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7587 would shift focus to 7570 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7537 (FDT), last week’s VAL, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7587.

• Holding above 7587 would target 7611 / 7632 / 7661

• Break and hold below 7587 would target 7570 / 7537

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.28 and 14.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7661 with VIX below 14.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7537 with VIX above 16.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was rather uneventful aside from an early news-driven liquidation break that was instantly retraced. The tone shifted ahead of the RTH open, as sellers broke 7615 (Smashlevel), Tuesday’s afternoon pullback low, putting Tuesday’s inventory above the Initial Balance range under pressure.

Heading into RTH, the immediate focus was on 7615, where we had additional confluence from the FS VWAP, with last week’s high at 7611 closely aligned as well. The key question was whether sellers could step in and defend the level, keeping Tuesday’s inventory trapped. Failure to do so would indicate that little had changed contextually. During the A-period, 7615 was tested, quickly finding sellers and triggering weakness (see Figure 1). This sequence marked the HOD.

While buyers managed to reclaim 7585 (DT1) in the B-period, they ultimately struggled to gain traction within Tuesday’s range, forming a poor high in the C-period and leading to further downside pressure. The final downside target at 7562 (FDT) was tagged within two ticks during the G-period, from which a reversal unfolded. Always exercise caution when chasing FUT/FDT levels, especially when hit counter to the prevailing trend. In the afternoon session, the key level for buyers to reclaim was 7585 to negate the intraday bearish tone; however, 7585 instead acted as the afternoon rally high, triggering another leg to the downside.

Smashlevels Recap

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Tuesday’s P-shaped profile, which formed a weak high at the all-time highs, was followed by a b-shaped profile today as weak-handed longs were flushed. While the session closed within today’s value area, after-hours weakness rotated the auction back into last week’s 2-day balance.

The high volume node (HVN) established from this balance area is crucial for buyers to defend, as it contains both last week’s VAL and last month’s VAH. Additionally, a failure to defend this area would bring a failed 2-week balance breakout into play, opening the door to shifting the broader tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7587 (UT1), today’s afternoon rally high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7537 (DT1), last week’s VAL.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7566, today’s excess base. Holding below 7566 would maintain downside pressure, targeting last week’s VAL at 7537 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7515 (FDT), last week’s low, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7566 would shift focus to the afternoon rally high at 7587 (UT1). Acceptance above 7587 would signal intraday strength, targeting last week’s high at 7611 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7632 (FUT), the ATH, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7566.

• Break and hold above 7566 would target 7587 / 7611 / 7632

• Holding below 7566 would target 7537 / 7515

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.92 and 15.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7632 with VIX below 15.22 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7515 with VIX above 16.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Monday’s session formed an excess high, from which the auction pulled back into the close. This closing weakness extended into the overnight session, where sellers gained immediate traction within last week’s range. The inability to establish acceptance below 7585 (DT1) continued overnight. Sellers briefly breached 7585 before responsive buyers stepped in to trigger a rotation higher. 7585 was a potential LBAF level, which played out well. During the European session, sellers stepped in and defended last week’s high at 7611 (Smashlevel), a key reference to defend given Monday’s excess high.

Heading into the RTH session, we had a clearly defined distribution of interest (see Figure 1). Buyers needed to reclaim 7611, while sellers needed to break 7585. Buyers were ultimately able to gain traction above 7611 in the C-period after a shallow rejection in the B-period, forming single prints and triggering stops. This effectively negated any potential bearish scenario, which required holding within last week’s range. Monday’s excess was revisited in the D-period, where sellers stepped in. 7629 was a potential LBAF level, which also played out today. The auction established a distribution above last week’s high of 7611, with notable aggressive selling (see delta profile). It remains to be seen whether this will act as fuel for upside continuation. Today’s high came 1 tick shy of the ATH at 7632.25, making it a weak high.

Smashlevels Recap

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Sellers needed to build acceptance back within last week’s range after Monday’s excess high, which they did overnight. However, the inability to sustain it during RTH led to a P-shaped profile, negating the excess. The current ATH is now weak, suggesting unfinished business.

The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 7615, closely aligned with last week’s high (7611).

Intraday strength would be indicated by value building above 7632 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7585 (DT1), i.e. traction back within Thursday’s range.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7615, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7615 signals stability and targets 7632 (UT1). Acceptance above 7632 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7661 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7680 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7615 would shift focus to 7585 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7562 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7615.

• Holding above 7615 would target 7632 / 7661 / 7680

• Break and hold below 7615 would target 7585 / 7562

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.78 and 14.78. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7680 with VIX below 14.78 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7562 with VIX above 16.78 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with an immediate pullback, testing 7585 (Smashlevel) in the process. This low volume node was a key reference, as sellers needed to break it to gain traction back into Thursday’s range. The auction came one tick shy of 7585 before reversing higher (see Figure 1). Buyers managed to tag and reclaim 7610 (UT1); however, just ahead of the RTH open, a news-driven liquidation break unfolded, leading to a return to 7585.

In the RTH session, attention was on the 7585 level, as highlighted on the liquidity heatmap shared during the B-period (see Figure 2). Notable aggressive selling was being absorbed by passive buyers around the 7585 area. This doesn’t mean it was an automatic slam-dunk long; however, it does mean that shorting into 7585 was not favorable. In a prevailing uptrend, it is always important to pay attention when a counter-trend move struggles to gain traction, as this typically opens the door to opportunities in the direction of the trend, i.e. setups you want to focus on. An additional piece of information was the VIX testing its resistance level at 16.18 during this sequence.

A notable squeeze developed from the lack of downside follow-through, with price coming three ticks shy of UT2 at 7633, the 50% range extension from the 2-week balance (see Figure 3). The session closed back at Friday’s high, which also served as both last week’s and last month‘s high, making it a key short-term reference.

Smashlevels Recap

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Notable absorption early in the session led to a squeeze in the direction of the prevailing trend. The key 7633 level was reached in the process, from which the auction pulled back, forming an excess high that was well auctioned from an order flow perspective.

As excess often marks the end of one auction and the start of another, the key in the short term will be to monitor sellers’ ability to gain acceptance back within last week‘s range.

Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7629 (UT1), negating today’s excess, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7585 (DT1), i.e. traction back within Thursday’s range.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7611, last week’s high. Holding above 7611 signals stability and targets 7629 (UT1). Acceptance above 7629 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7661 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7680 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7611 would shift focus to 7585 (DT1). Acceptance below 7585 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7562 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7537 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7611.

• Holding above 7611 would target 7629 / 7661 / 7680

• Break and hold below 7611 would target 7585 / 7562 / 7537

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.94 and 15.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7680 with VIX below 15.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7537 with VIX above 16.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Reminder: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would avoid using those terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are being accepted, the market can continue to move higher. Friday’s session shifted the short-term value (5D VPOC) from 7536 to 7596, value continues to follow price.

Smashlevels Recap

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On Thursday, buyers initiated a breakout from the 2-day balance, forming a double distribution trend day and closing the session at the highs. The profile was P-shaped, and this bullish imbalance was resolved by Friday’s continuation higher, which established value cleanly higher.

Keep it simple: there are two notable high volume nodes from last week, highlighted on the chart. Rejecting the upper HVN by gaining acceptance back inside Thursday’s range would open the door to structural fills toward the lower HVN. Failure to do so keeps buyers firmly in control.

Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7610 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7562 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7585, the low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7585 signals stability and targets 7610 (UT1). Acceptance above 7610 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7633 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7661 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7585 would shift focus to 7562 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7537 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7585.

• Holding above 7585 would target 7610 / 7633 / 7661

• Break and hold below 7585 would target 7562 / 7537

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.18 and 14.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7661 with VIX below 14.48 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7537 with VIX above 16.18 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with a holiday session on Monday, during which the market broke out of the 2-week balance area, printing a holiday ATH at 7569.75. The holiday gains retraced during Tuesday’s overnight session, with upside capped at our final intraday target of 7565 (FUT) (see Figure 1).

Tuesday’s RTH session opened within the 2-week balance area, with buyers attempting an early breakout above the balance high at 7540. The attempt failed, triggering a pullback. Although a failed balance breakout typically signals weakness, stronger sellers were absent, which provided valuable market-generated information, and a bounce developed into the closing session.

On Wednesday, the auction continued to rotate around 7540, and sellers continued to struggle to gain downside traction despite Tuesday’s Look Above and Fail at 7540. The Smashlevel for the session was 7519, offering great reversal opportunities (see Figures 2 and 3). Ultimately, a 2-day balance formed heading into Thursday.

The 2-day balance was considered a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise, and Thursday’s session confirmed that view with a breakout. A new ATH was printed, taking out the holiday ATH in the process. It was interesting to observe how liquidity was stacking below Thursday’s Smashlevel at 7524 before the breakout (see Figure 4). It’s important to understand that resting liquidity alone does not define support or resistance, but it can serve as confirmation that an identified level was a meaningful reference for other market participants as well.

Friday’s session saw a continuation to the upside, establishing value cleanly higher and shifting the short-term value (5D VPOC) from 7536 to 7596. Value continues to follow price. The week and month were ultimately capped by the Monthly Extreme High at 7595.

Reminder: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would avoid using those terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are being accepted, the market can continue to move higher.

The key question now is whether buyers can sustain this 2-week balance breakout, making the high volume node from Tuesday–Wednesday’s consolidation crucial to defend, as it aligns with the 2-week balance highs.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7577.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7515
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following last week’s breakout from the 2-week balance. The auction is one-time framing up across all timeframes, with higher highs and higher lows on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, signaling continued strength until proven otherwise.

The most bullish response would involve accepting the breakout through continued value building above the 2-week balance area, while defending the high volume node (HVN) formed early last week, which also aligns with last week’s VAL and last month’s VAH. This would keep the broader context unchanged and target balance extensions.

A shift in tone would require a failure to defend the critical HVN, ending the weekly OTFU and bringing a failed breakout scenario into play. This would open the door to short-term weakness and a rotation back toward the HVN in the 7420 area, where three weekly VPOCs are closely stacked, acting as a downside magnet.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7585, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7585 would target the 50% balance extension at 7633. Acceptance above 7633 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7720 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7750, where selling activity can be expected.

This would effectively complete the 100% balance extension of the prior 2-week balance area. Additionally, a notable HTF level is located within this resistance at 7735, adding another layer of significance. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7585 would target technical fills of the poor structure toward last week’s VAL at 7537. Acceptance below 7537, indicating a failed breakout, would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7450 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7420, where buying activity can be expected.

The three stacked weekly VPOCs in the 7420 area are likely to act as a downside magnet on a failed breakout, a crucial area for buyers to defend to avoid a full traverse of the prior 2-week balance area.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7585.

• Holding above 7585 would target 7633 / 7720 / 7750* / 7790 / 7830

• Break and hold below 7585 would target 7537 / 7450 / 7420* / 7355 / 7299

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The short-term focus today was on the 2-day balance, where the auction continued accepting higher prices following last week’s closing strength away from the 7420 HVN. During the overnight session, both a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) and a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) developed around this balance area, triggering rotation back into balance (see Figure 1). While the LAAF led to a meaningful move traversing the balance area, the LBAF ultimately produced the better outcome, which is not surprising. In an uptrend, the best long opportunities often emerge after selling efforts fail to meaningfully shift tone or momentum, typically leading to continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend.

The RTH session opened in the middle of the 2-day balance and initially pulled back toward 7524 (Smashlevel). If you have access to order flow and are able to monitor resting liquidity, you could observe liquidity beginning to stack below the 7524 level (see Figure 2). It’s important to understand that resting liquidity alone does not define support or resistance, but it can serve as confirmation that today’s pivot was a meaningful reference for other market participants as well. You could also observe notable aggressive buying activity around the FS VWAP. Positive headlines were, of course, released in the following period, contributing to a balance breakout. In the process, the overnight ATH at 7570.75 was cleaned up.

The C-period showed a delta of -5530 during the technical fill of the emotional B-period, yet closed green, signaling absorption (see Figure 3 on chart). This was a good opportunity to monitor for a long setup against the 2-day balance high. The rest of the session was rather lackluster, with a distribution forming above the Initial Balance range.

Smashlevels Recap

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The 2-day balance was considered a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise, and today confirmed that view with a breakout. A new ATH printed at 7586.50, taking out the prior overnight ATH in the process.

The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 7571. Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7595 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7551 (DT1), negating today’s initiating activity.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7571, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7571 signals stability and targets 7595 (UT1). Acceptance above 7595 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7615 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7635 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7571 would shift focus to 7551 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7524 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7571.

• Holding above 7571 would target 7595 / 7615 / 7635

• Break and hold below 7571 would target 7551 / 7524

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.52 and 14.96. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7635 with VIX below 14.96 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7524 with VIX above 16.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: not much changed today from a contextual standpoint, with the market largely repeating Tuesday’s price action and closing unchanged. During the overnight session, buyers capitalized on sellers getting stuck at a poor location on Tuesday by reclaiming 7540 (UT1), triggering continuation toward the holiday ATH at 7569.75. A new ATH printed at 7570.75, a reference to carry forward as unfinished business, given that it remained untested during the RTH session.

The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s range, and early attempts to reclaim 7540 were met by sellers, resulting in rotational activity. The conditions were clear: buyers needed acceptance above 7540, while sellers needed value building below Tuesday’s range to trigger further weakness. Neither scenario materialized, leading to a two-sided auction. Sellers made several attempts to gain traction below the Initial Balance low, but breaks below 7519 (Smashlevel) were met by responsive buyers, offering Look Below and Fail setups (see Figure 1). Note how the 5D VPOC shifted higher from 7427 to 7540, a bullish indication in the context of Thursday’s and Friday’s initiation from value. Value continues to follow price, suggesting that no meaningful shift in tone has occurred.

Smashlevels Recap

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Following buyers’ initiation from value on Thursday and Friday, the auction has transitioned into a 2-day balance at the prior ATH, with prices currently being accepted higher. This is a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise. We carry forward a new overnight ATH at 7570.75 as unfinished business.

Balance guidelines apply. Only a sustained breakdown of the 2-day balance is likely to shift the short-term tone. As always, failed attempts to shift momentum can offer opportunities in the direction of the prevailing trend; be aware of false breaks.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7524, last week’s high. Holding above 7524 signals stability and targets the prior ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting the holiday ATH at 7570.75 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7524 would shift focus to the support area between 7495 and 7484 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7456 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7524.

• Holding above 7524 would target 7540 / 7570 / 7595

• Break and hold below 7524 would target 7495 / 7484 / 7456

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.10 and 15.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 15.48 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7456 with VIX above 17.10 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Monday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Carry forward the holiday ATH at 7569.75 as unfinished business, given that it has not yet been revisited during RTH. I would also carry forward Friday’s after-hours high at 7495, which the holiday session gapped above overnight. Notably the session was capped by the final upside target at 7565 (FUT). The overnight session immediately began retracing the gains, which is not uncommon following thin holiday trade. The key level to monitor was, of course, the prior ATH and 2-week balance high at 7540, as discussed in the pre-open analysis. Notably, both the ON VPOC and FS VWAP were positioned at 7540 heading into the RTH session, confirming the importance of the level (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened within the 2-week balance area, and buyers attempted a breakout during the Initial Balance. A failed Initial Balance extension in the C-period, however, triggered weakness. The early gains were quickly retraced in the D- and F-periods, bringing a potential failed breakout scenario into play. The Look Above and Fail of 7540 should have triggered additional weakness, but stronger sellers were absent, which made trading tricky for the remainder of the session. Note the lack of excess at today’s low, suggesting crowded momentum sellers were caught at a poor location and unable to gain meaningful traction within last week’s range.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session produced conflicting market-generated information, with an early failed breakout followed by a lack of stronger sellers to capitalize on the failure. The auction remains stuck between the prior ATH at 7540 and last week’s high, leaving it in a bit of no man’s land.

Keep it simple: value building above 7540 would be a bullish development, keeping the broader context unchanged and targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75, carried forward as unfinished business.

Value building below 7519 would end the daily structure of higher highs and higher lows, opening the door to build on today’s failed 2-week balance breakout.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7519, today’s low and the holiday opening level. Holding above 7519 signals stability and targets the prior ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7519 would shift focus to the support area between 7495 and 7484 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7456 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7519.

• Holding above 7519 would target 7540 / 7569 / 7595

• Break and hold below 7519 would target 7495 / 7484 / 7456

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.88 and 16.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 16.14 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7456 with VIX above 17.88 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session opened with a small true gap higher, which was filled in the B-period following an early Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7509. In the process, the Smashlevel at 7479 was tagged almost to the tick, offering a clean reversal (LOD: 7478.75). Beyond that, the session offered limited opportunities.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday’s session opened with a small true gap higher, which was filled in the B-period following an early Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7509. In the process, the Smashlevel at 7479 was tagged almost to the tick, offering a clean reversal (LOD: 7478.75). Beyond that, the session offered limited opportunities.

As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the weekly timeframe has developed into a 2-week balance following a period of one-sided trade.

In the short term, however, buyers are attempting a move away from value, which can clearly be seen in the composite profile on the far right of the chart.

The key now is to monitor for continuation, or lack thereof, with the LVN at 7484 as the immediate reference of interest.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7516 (UT1), targeting all-time highs, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7456 (DT1), opening the door to a rotation back to value.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7484, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7484 signals stability and targets Friday’s IB High at 7516 (UT1). Acceptance above 7516 would signal intraday strength, targeting the ATH at 7540 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7565 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7484 would shift focus to 7456 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7420 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7484.

• Holding above 7484 would target 7516 / 7540 / 7565

• Break and hold below 7484 would target 7456 / 7420

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.58 and 15.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7565 with VIX below 15.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7420 with VIX above 17.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, resulting in a test of the key level at 7390, marking the prior week’s value area low (VAL) and aligning with the Monthly VWAP. This was a key level for sellers to break and build value below in order to potentially shift the tone. Responsive buyers stepped in on every attempt to gain traction below 7390, and Monday’s session ended with a closing squeeze.

Heading into Tuesday, the daily was one-time framing down, implying a structure of lower highs and lower lows. However, the overall context remained unchanged, as sellers would need not only to establish value lower on the daily timeframe but also on the weekly timeframe, making 7390 a critical level.

Sellers managed to achieve a daily close below 7390 and the Monthly VWAP on Tuesday, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. Heading into Wednesday, the key question was whether sellers could reoffer 7390 and defend that level.

The overnight session offered great setups around our key levels from Wednesday’s plan. The first setup was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7390. An exhaustive move above 7390 was quickly rejected, with aggressive sellers stepping in as the market moved back below the level (see Figure 1).

Rejecting 7390 led to a 30-handle reversal that tested 7360 (DT1), which in turn offered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup (see Figure 2).

Sellers were ultimately unable to defend the 7390 level, leading to a short-covering rally during the Wednesday RTH session, which formed a P-shaped profile and ended the daily structure of lower highs and lower lows.

Thursday’s session was fairly uneventful early on, which was expected as the auction was positioned in the middle of balance (see Figure 3). Change took place in the H-period, when a directional move to the upside was initiated. In the process, last week’s gap at 7479.75 was filled, a pivotal level discussed in the Weekly Plan due to its alignment with the prior week’s value area high (VAH).

The 7479 level was pivotal on Friday, offering a clean reversal after being tagged almost to the tick during the RTH session. Beyond that, it was a session with limited opportunities.

The failure to gain traction below last week’s value area early in the week, which was needed to meaningfully shift the tone, ultimately led to a reversal back in the direction of the prevailing trend.

The key question now is whether the auction is ready to explore higher prices, or if the three stacked weekly VPOCs will act as a magnet and pull price lower (see Figure 4). The weekly is currently in a 2-week balance.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7478.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 2-Week → High: 7540 | Low: 7354.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is to monitor the current 2-week balance area, ranging from 7354 to the ATH at 7540, where two-sided activity has developed following a period of one-sided trade.

Note the stacked weekly VPOCs, considered the fairest prices to do business over the past three weeks. Buyers initiated a move away from this HVN at 7420 late last week, making the LVN at 7484 a key level to monitor early in the week.

A bullish development would be defined by value building above this LVN, setting the stage for a revisit of all-time highs and a potential balance breakout attempt. Failure to do so would put the HVN in play as a downside magnet, with a break below opening the door to a test of the balance lows.

For sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, a sustained breakdown below the 2-week balance area would be required.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7484, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7484 would target the ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540, indicating a sustained breakout, would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the Monthly Extreme High at 7585, as well as the resistance area between 7635 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7484 would target the high volume node (HVN) at 7420, acting as a downside magnet. Acceptance below 7420 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7360 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7330, where buying activity can be expected. This support area is crucial for buyers to defend, as a sustained breakdown of the 2-week balance area could meaningfully shift the tone.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7484.

• Holding above 7484 would target 7540 / 7595 / 7635 / 7665* / 7700

• Break and hold below 7484 would target 7420 / 7360 / 7330* / 7299 / 7270

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.