— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session saw a slow upward grind toward the key 7784 level, which has attracted responsive sellers throughout the week. Another pop above 7784 was sold ahead of the PPI release (see Figure 1). Much like the CPI, the reaction to PPI was muted, but 7784 was reclaimed heading into RTH. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) overnight was 7783.50.

The market opened above 7784 on both Tuesday and Wednesday, with both attempts met by immediate selling activity. If we look at the composite profile from the recent multi-day balance area, where I’ve merged the profiles, we can see that 7784 marks the upper end of the high volume area, suggesting that acceptance above this area was needed to meaningfully shift the tone. Unlike Tuesday and Wednesday, buyers were able to defend 7784 early in the session (LOD: 7785.50), which essentially triggered a directional move.

7810 (UT2) was tagged almost immediately, leading to a small pullback that provided a great opportunity to join the move if not already in, targeting 7836 (FUT). I’ll provide a visual of this sequence on Substack, given how interesting it was from an order flow perspective (see Figure 2). The final upside target at 7836 was tagged in the B-period, which ended up capping today’s upside. Even though the auction was bullish from the open, trade location remains key. If you were not part of the move early, chasing new longs at 7836 (FUT) was not ideal.

Session Recap

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The auction is once again attempting to transition from balance to imbalance in the direction of the prevailing trend after today’s breakout to new ATHs. Now we monitor for continuation (acceptance) or a failure to do so (rejection).

Today’s halfback at 7813, aligning with last week’s VAH, is the immediate level of interest, along with aggressive support at 7820, the prior ATH.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7837 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7793 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7813, last week’s VAH, which aligns with today’s halfback. Holding above 7813 targets 7837 (UT1). Acceptance above 7837 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7855 (UT2), with 7888 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7813 shifts focus to 7793 (DT1), with 7759 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7813.

• Holding above 7813 would target 7837 / 7855 / 7888

• Break and hold below 7813 would target 7793 / 7759

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.42 and 13.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7888 with VIX below 13.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7759 with VIX above 15.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Last week, we discussed how trading conditions could be tricky after Monday’s and Tuesday’s notably one-sided auctions. The main reason was that the market had moved too much, too fast, at one point trading 300 handles above both the 5D and 20D VPOCs. For context, Wednesday’s high came within 35 handles of the Monthly Extreme High, despite it being only the third trading day of the month. That said, the subsequent auction behavior, with the market essentially going nowhere, is not too surprising.

The key takeaway is that buyers are doing exactly what they are supposed to do after a directional move: building value and accepting higher prices, while shifting both the 5D and 20D VPOCs higher into the current short-term balance. This doesn’t automatically mean that the balance will resolve with a break to the upside, but that remains the expected behavior. The market has now formed a 6-day balance, and sellers are yet to clean up the poor structure from last Tuesday, suggesting a clear lack of meaningful selling pressure. Reminder: even if the poor structure were to be cleaned up, sellers would still need to negate the breakout by gaining acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance area to meaningfully shift the tone. Personally, I would actually prefer to see a liquidation break that cleans up the structural deficiencies below, traps sellers at poor locations, and attracts stronger buyers at better locations for a continuation higher.

Session Recap

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The auction remains balanced following today’s muted reaction to the CPI data, with the market now forming a 6-day balance.

Our key pivot for the week at 7784 continues to attract responsive sellers (see Figure 1); however, the lack of interest in cleaning up last week’s poor structure suggests that there are still no signs of stronger sellers (bullish consolidation). PPI is on deck tomorrow.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7725 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7759, the upper end of Tuesday’s main distribution. Holding above 7759 targets 7784 (UT1). Acceptance above 7784 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7810 (UT2), with 7836 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7759 shifts focus to 7725 (DT1), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7759.

• Holding above 7759 would target 7784 / 7810 / 7836

• Break and hold below 7759 would target 7725 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.32 and 13.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7836 with VIX below 13.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 15.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The expectation for today was continued rotational activity within the current multi-day balance, which is ultimately what the auction delivered. Note that we continue to trade within last week’s main distribution. Overnight activity remained contained within Monday’s range, with buyers attempting to gain traction above 7784 (Smashlevel).

The RTH session opened above 7784 and immediately found responsive sellers, opening the door for a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) setup. Buyers subsequently failed to reclaim 7784 during the B- and C-periods, providing essentially the only decent trade opportunity of the day, with a target of 7750 (DT1), which was ultimately achieved during the H-period (see Figure 1). The auction formed a distribution at the lower end of today’s profile, with its upper end at 7759, the I-period high, now serving as a short-term reference of interest.

Session Recap

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The daily one-time framing up ended on Thursday, shifting the market into short-term balance. Since then, the market has been consolidating and digesting last week’s breakout. CPI is on deck tomorrow, serving as a potential catalyst for a directional move.

To reiterate, buyers remain in control unless the market establishes acceptance back within the prior multi-week balance area, signaling a failed breakout. Until then, even a sizable pullback should be viewed as a correction (technical fills) within the broader bullish structure rather than a meaningful shift in tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7725 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7759, the upper end of today’s main distribution. Holding below 7759 targets 7725 (DT1). Acceptance below 7725 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7706 (DT2), with 7681 (FDT), Thursday’s excess base, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7759 shifts focus to 7784 (UT1), with 7810 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7759.

• Break and hold above 7759 would target 7784 / 7810

• Holding below 7759 would target 7725 / 7706 / 7681

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.04 and 14.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7810 with VIX below 14.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7681 with VIX above 16.04 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

There’s not much to add after today’s rather quiet session from a contextual standpoint. Overnight, the market explored prices above 7784 (Smashlevel) and Friday’s high, ultimately resulting in a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) as the auction rotated back within Friday’s range ahead of RTH.

The RTH session followed a similar pattern, with early strength failing to hold above Friday’s high. Wednesday’s single prints were cleaned up in the process, so that’s now out of the way. The C-period saw a failed Initial Balance extension to the upside, while the G-period failed to gain traction on an IB extension to the downside, with the failure coinciding with VIX tagging its resistance level at 15.64 (HOD: 15.72).

Session Recap

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The auction remains in short-term balance as the market continues to digest last week’s significant breakout while awaiting further market-generated information.

With no data releases tomorrow, similar rotational price action can reasonably be expected, making LAAF and LBAF setups of particular interest.

Wednesday’s CPI release, however, could provide the catalyst needed to resolve this balance and set the stage for the next directional move.

“Buyers and sellers are always looking for fair prices to do business, and currently, that fair price is being established above the multi-week balance. This suggests that the consolidation remains bullish until proven otherwise, as the market continues to accept higher prices.”

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7810 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7750 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7784, the upper end of last week’s main distribution. Holding below 7784 targets the LVN at 7750 (DT1). Acceptance below 7750 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7725 (DT2), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7784 shifts focus to 7810 (UT1), with 7836 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7784.

• Break and hold above 7784 would target 7810 / 7836

• Holding below 7784 would target 7750 / 7725 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.22 and 14.66. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7836 with VIX below 14.66 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 16.22 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session offered great opportunities around our key levels, with the overnight session holding the pivot at 7727 (Smashlevel), which ultimately marked the low of the day. The RTH low was formed around 7747 (UT1), while the high of the day was capped by 7784 (FUT), our final upside target for the session.

Session Recap

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After last week’s notable breakout from the 12-week balance area, the auction has entered a period of short-term balance, allowing the market to digest the move.

Buyers and sellers are always looking for fair prices to do business, and currently, that fair price is being established above the multi-week balance. This suggests that the consolidation remains bullish until proven otherwise, as the market continues to accept higher prices.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7810 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7750 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7784, the upper end of last week’s main distribution. Holding below 7784 targets the LVN at 7750 (DT1). Acceptance below 7750 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7725 (DT2), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7784 shifts focus to 7810 (UT1), with 7836 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7784.

• Break and hold above 7784 would target 7810 / 7836

• Holding below 7784 would target 7750 / 7725 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.64 and 14.18 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7836 with VIX below 14.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 15.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review & Thoughts on NQ

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with a sustained true gap higher on Monday (7541), reclaiming the initial weekly upside target at 7556 in the process. A multi-distribution trend day developed as the market reached the weekly resistance area between 7635 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, with the ATH at 7648 marking the high of the prior multi-week balance.

On Tuesday, another true gap higher was established, with the market gapping above the ATH at 7648 and aggressively pushing through the Weekly Extreme High at 7665. Trading beyond the Weekly Extremes typically involves highly emotional price action, which Tuesday’s session definitely reflected, with 7 sets of single prints. When markets become emotional, in either direction, there’s not shame in stepping back and letting other traders handle the price discovery process.

Heading into Wednesday, the market had obviously moved significantly away from the 7665 level, with Tuesday’s close at 7765, while also trading 300 handles above both the 5D and 20D VPOCs. It’s very unappealing to chase after such moves, creating an environment that can be tricky to trade because shorting is not an optimal approach. It’s easy to get caught in FOMO and initiate trades at very poor locations, while the auction often slows down significantly after such a large directional move as it pauses to digest the move. That’s why my only advice was to mind your step and keep a level-to-level mindset.

Wednesday’s session attempted a third consecutive true gap higher, but ultimately failed, which was not a huge surprise given the context. The market essentially went nowhere directionally for the rest of the week, consolidating and digesting the move. In the context of the multi-week balance breakout, this consolidation remains bullish until proven otherwise.

Weekly Levels in Review

Daily Levels in Review

A quick note on NQ: following the failure to hold below the HTF level at 27930, a sharp counter-auction unfolded. However, the relative weakness in NQ remains evident, as the market is still nowhere near a breakout from its multi-week balance area. In the short term, I would focus on the daily balance area, with 30030 and 29390 serving as the key levels (see Figure 1). A break and hold beyond either level would target the corresponding weekly balance extreme.

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Eastern Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 3D | High: 7820.25 / Low: 7724.25
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends at: 7542.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7345.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the upside momentum following last week’s breakout from the multi-week balance area, which ultimately led to new all-time highs. So far, the auction has done a good job of accepting higher prices, with a distribution forming between 7784 and 7725. This range is now the key area of interest in the short term.

The most bullish response would be continued value building within this range, showing no interest in cleaning up last week’s breakout structure and supporting a continuation of the weekly imbalance phase.

A failure to do so, meaning a break and hold below 7725, would open the door to technical fills of the poor structure. However, unless the auction establishes acceptance back within the prior multi-week balance area, buyers are not in any trouble.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7784, the upper end of last week’s main distribution, highlighted on the chart. Break and hold above 7784 would target the Monthly Extreme High at 7855, which aligns closely with the 50% range extension from the multi-week balance area. Acceptance above 7855 would signal continued strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7905 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7935, where selling activity can be expected.

Such a move would effectively complete last week’s bullish imbalance. The faster the market approaches this resistance, the more cautious late buyers should be.

Holding below 7784 would maintain rotational, two-sided activity toward 7725. Acceptance below 7725 would signal “weakness” and open the door for “bearish” continuation toward the support area between 7650 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7620, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with Tuesday’s gap at 7637 and the prior multi-week balance high 7648, is crucial for buyers to defend. A failure to do so would bring a failed balance breakout into play, opening the door to a shift in the broader tone.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7784.

• Break and hold above 7784 would target 7855 / 7905 | 7935* / 7970 / 7810

• Holding below 7784 would target 7725 / 7650 / 7620* / 7589 / 7541

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The conditions are a bit tricky at the moment. The market isn’t doing much, but that’s not uncommon after a significant directional move as it pauses to digest recent gains. The overnight session was largely uneventful, consolidating around 7761 (Smashlevel) (ON VPOC: 7759.75). If sellers could defend 7761, the door was open to clean up more of Tuesday’s poor structure.

The RTH session kicked off with a LBAF of both the previous day’s low and the overnight low, as aggressive sellers were absorbed and subsequently trapped (see Figure 1). During the B-period, buyers attempted to reclaim 7761, but failed to gain acceptance above the level. Sellers then responded and defended 7761 during the C/D-periods, which ultimately led to further cleanup of Tuesday’s poor structure.

Overall, it was a lackluster session, with the auction building value around the 7735 (DT1) level. Today’s session ended the daily one-time framing up, transitioning the market into a 3-day balance. While the broader balance range is defined by Tuesday’s low and Wednesday’s high, the short-term focus is on the developing 3-day value area, highlighted on the chart. This is also reflected in the composite profile, where we can see where volume is starting to build.

Session Recap

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After Monday’s and Tuesday’s notable one-sided auctions, the expectation was to transition into a more two-sided trade, which was ultimately today’s outcome. The market continues to clean up Tuesday’s poor structure, with four out of seven single prints now filled.

I’m watching today’s value area in the short term for clues on whether the auction wants to continue cleaning up Tuesday’s poor structure and fill the remaining single prints, or if a 50% retracement of Tuesday’s range will attract buyers. NFP is on deck tomorrow.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7747 (UT1), today’s afternoon rally high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7706 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7727, today’s VAL. Holding above 7727 targets 7747 (UT1). Acceptance above 7747 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7765 (UT2), with 7784 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7727 shifts focus to 7706 (DT1), with 7665 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7727.

• Holding above 7727 would target 7747 / 7765 / 7784

• Break and hold below 7727 would target 7706 / 7665

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.88 and 14.42 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7784 with VIX below 14.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7665 with VIX above 15.88 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Tuesday’s strength extended into the overnight session, as buyers continued to explore price in uncharted territory, gaining acceptance above 7784 (UT1) in the process. The retest of 7784 during the Euro session provided a clean level-to-level opportunity, with the auction rotating toward 7807 (DT2) ahead of RTH.

The RTH session opened on its third consecutive true gap higher. Given the context discussed in the prior plan, with price having moved significantly away from key value references, this was not an appealing gap to chase from a risk/reward perspective. The auction consolidated during the Initial Balance, as buyers and sellers competed for control of the overnight high and opening level, two key references when trading a gap higher. Notable aggressive selling came in during the B-period (-6200 delta), making it particularly interesting to monitor which direction the Initial Balance range would break.

The C-period extended the IB to the downside, filling the gap in the process. A gap fill does not necessarily indicate bearish development; rather, it signals some weakness from buyers. However, only acceptance back into the previous day’s range would change the tone. The D-period failed to fill the C-period single prints, opening the door to clean up some of Tuesday’s poor structure. Ultimately, sellers were unable to accomplish much, filling only two of Tuesday’s seven sets of single prints, as the market spent most of the session building value within Tuesday’s main distribution.

Session Recap

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The daily one-time framing up remains intact after today’s session. However, today’s third consecutive true gap higher failed to see continuation, and value was established within Tuesday’s main distribution.

This suggests that the imbalance phase is taking a breather, which is a healthy development given the notably one-sided auction over the past couple of days.

Short-term, I’m observing buyers’ ability to reclaim 7761. Failure to do so would open the door to further cleanup of Tuesday’s poor structure, as only two of Tuesday’s seven single prints were filled today.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness (read: technical fills of structure) would be signaled by a break and hold below 7735 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7761, the lower end of Tuesday’s main distribution. Holding below 7761 targets technical fills of structure toward 7735 (DT1), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7761 shifts focus to 7784 (UT1), with 7810 (FUT), today’s opening level, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7761.

• Break and hold above 7761 would target 7784 / 7810

• Holding below 7761 would target 7735 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.64 and 14.98 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7810 with VIX below 14.98 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 16.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

This market does not wait for anyone. During the overnight session, the market consolidated Monday’s gains, not even coming close to testing 7611 (Smashlevel). The ATH at 7648 (UT1) was tested multiple times and found responsive sellers before buyers ultimately reclaimed it ahead of the RTH session.

We saw another true gap higher today, and just like Monday’s session, the market showed no interest in trading below the opening level, highlighting continued strength from buyers. The Weekly Extreme High at 7665 was breached during the A-period, and 7694 (FUT) during the B-period. These are the type of sessions that are very difficult to trade if you are not already positioned from overnight or early in RTH. When markets become emotional, in either direction, there’s no shame in stepping back and letting other traders handle in the price discovery process.

To put things in perspective, we are now 400+ handles off Wednesday’s low and trading 100+ handles above the Weekly Extreme High at 7665. Monday’s profile contained 3 sets of single prints, while today’s profile contained 7. We are also trading 300+ handles above both the 5D and 20D VPOCs. What makes this environment more complex is that we are breaking out of a multi-week balance area, meaning buyers are currently in firm control of the auction. Shorting is not an optimal approach until that behavior changes, defined by a failed breakout and acceptance back below the prior ATH at 7648. My only advice is to mind your step and keep a level-to-level mindset.

Session Recap

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A second consecutive true gap higher today, and this time the market gapped above the ATH, triggering a vicious squeeze into uncharted territory.

The market is one-time framing up across all timeframes, signaling strength. However, this is emotional price action, so mind your step and remain level-to-level.

Contextually, only acceptance back within the multi-week balance area would introduce weakness, meaning we could see a sizable pullback without necessarily becoming meaningfully bearish.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness (read: technical fills of structure) would be signaled by a break and hold below 7735 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7761, the lower end of today’s main distribution. Holding above 7761 signals stability and targets 7784 (UT1). Acceptance above 7784 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7807 (UT2), with 7832 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7761 shifts focus to technical fills of structure toward 7735 (DT1), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7761.

• Holding above 7761 would target 7784 / 7807 / 7832

• Break and hold below 7761 would target 7735 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.32 and 15.68 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7832 with VIX below 15.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 17.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The question we asked last week following Wednesday’s failed breakdown attempt was whether that failure would increase confidence in a move in the opposite direction. The market is now nearing the all-time highs following today’s extremely one-sided auction. The overnight session gapped higher, heavily rejecting Friday’s after-hours weakness, before consolidating around 7556 (UT2), the immediate weekly resistance.

The overnight strength resulted in the RTH session opening on a small true gap up, 5 handles above Friday’s high. Just before the open, there was notable aggressive selling activity on the tape, but despite this, sellers were unable to fill the gap following a LBAF of the overnight low (see Figure 1). When the market gaps higher, if sellers are unable to establish acceptance within the previous day’s range and negate the gap, it is generally not optimal to fight the move. As mentioned, an extremely one-sided auction followed, clearing all intraday targets up to 7578 (FUT), before continuing to grind higher.

The market is approaching the upper end of the multi-week balance area, defined by the all-time high at 7648.75 (see Figure 2 on the chart). The upper extreme of a balance area is considered resistance until proven otherwise. Therefore, chasing new longs into the ATH, which closely aligns with the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, is unfavorable from a risk/reward perspective. The optimal scenario would see some consolidation within today’s value area, allowing the auction to build energy before making a breakout attempt. However, we don’t make the rules, the market does.

Session Recap

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Friday’s initiative move away from the multi-day balance saw notable continuation today following a true gap higher. In the process, the session established a multi-distribution profile with three sets of single prints.

Keep in mind, we are now approaching the upper end of the multi-week balance area, which makes trade location a bit tricky in the short term.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7648 (UT1), signaling a potential multi-week balance breakout, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7589 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7611, where notable order flow activity occurred today. Holding above 7611 signals stability and targets the ATH at 7648 (UT1). Acceptance above 7648 would signal intraday strength, targeting the Weekly Extreme High at 7665 (UT2), with 7694 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7611 shifts focus to technical fills of structure toward 7589 (DT1), with 7567 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7611.

• Holding above 7611 would target 7648 / 7665 / 7694

• Break and hold below 7611 would target 7589 / 7567

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.66 and 15.08 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7694 with VIX below 15.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7567 with VIX above 16.66 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question heading into Friday’s session was whether buyers could build on sellers’ inability to sustain Wednesday’s breakdown and make another attempt at filling the gap at 7525.25. Ultimately, buyers absorbed the early liquidation break on Friday, allowing the auction to fill the gap and close out the week above the developing weekly value area (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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The market initiated a move higher on Friday and successfully filled the gap at 7525.25. The key question now is whether buyers can sustain that initiative behavior and gain acceptance at higher prices. A strong response would see buyers build acceptance above last week’s value area, while failure to do so would open the door to continued rotational activity around the HVN at 7440.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7531 (UT1), the base of Friday’s M-period spike, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below Friday’s halfback at 7485 (DT1), coinciding with last week’s VAH.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7515, Friday’s Initial Balance high. Holding below 7515 keeps Friday’s IB breakout traders trapped and targets 7485 (DT1), with 7460 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7515 shifts focus to Friday’s spike base at 7531 (UT1). Acceptance above 7531 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7556 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7515.

• Break and hold above 7515 would target 7531 / 7556 / 7578

• Holding below 7515 would target 7485 / 7460

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.78 and 15.18 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 15.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7460 with VIX above 16.78 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with Monday’s session opening within the prior week’s gap area and immediately finding responsive sellers. The auction then developed a 3-day balance heading into Tuesday. As discussed, this represented a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, given the unfilled gap at 7525.25. Responsive two-sided activity continued on Tuesday, resulting in an inside day between the key levels of 7485 and 7425 (see Figure 1).

Change took place on Wednesday following the FOMC meeting, as sellers initiated a balance breakdown. When the market moves away from balance (value), the key question is whether those new prices are accepted or rejected. Acceptance indicates that the market is willing to do business at the new price levels, allowing the move to continue. Rejection signals a lack of participation and often results in a rotation back toward prior value.

Wednesday’s breakdown attempt from balance was rejected on Thursday. Sellers failed to defend the key levels at 7371 and 7398 needed to sustain the breakdown, triggering a rotation back toward value. The 7398 level offered great long opportunities during the RTH session, especially with VIX holding below its intraday support (see Figure 2).

The key question heading into Friday’s session was whether buyers could build on sellers’ inability to sustain Wednesday’s breakdown and make another attempt at filling the gap at 7525.25. When directional moves away from value fail to gain acceptance, as we saw on Wednesday, confidence in a counter-move typically increases. This is why some of the best trading opportunities arise when one side attempts to move the market away from value but fails to gain acceptance.

Ultimately, buyers absorbed the early liquidation break on Friday, allowing the auction to fill the gap at 7525.25 and close out the week above the developing weekly value area (see Figure 3).

Regarding NQ and the HTF level at 27930 shared last week (see Figure 4): Wednesday saw a hard flush below the level, but interestingly, buyers immediately reclaimed it on Thursday. Holding this level would be a sign of strength moving forward, while failure to do so would open the door to sustained downside pressure.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Eastern Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7427.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 12-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7345.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

After spending several sessions in balance, a period of two-sided trade, the auction initiated a move higher on Friday and filled the gap at 7525.25. The key question heading into this week is whether buyers can sustain that initiative behavior and gain acceptance at higher prices, something sellers failed to achieve after Wednesday’s breakdown attempt.

A strong response would see buyers hold above 7485, a pivotal level within the current multi-week balance area. This would set the stage for a move toward the all-time highs, with 7556 serving as the immediate resistance.

A weak response would see buyers fail to maintain acceptance above 7485, putting Friday’s initiative move into question. Failure to hold this level would open the door to continued rotational activity around the high volume node (HVN) at 7440, with 7427 serving as immediate support.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7485, a pivotal level over the past 12 weeks. Holding above 7485 signals stability and targets 7556. Acceptance above 7556 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7635 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area is crucial for sellers to defend in order to prevent a breakout from the multi-week balance area.

Break and hold below 7485 would put Friday’s initiative move into question and shift focus to 7427. Acceptance below 7427 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7365 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7335, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with multiple prior weekly lows and marks the lower end of the large composite distribution, is crucial for buyers to defend. A break of this support area would end the monthly one-time framing higher (7345.75).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7485.

• Holding above 7485 would target 7556 / 7635 / 7665* / 7735 / 7800

• Break and hold below 7485 would target 7427 / 7365 / 7335* / 7300 / 7250

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The immediate area of interest today was Wednesday’s spike area, highlighted on the chart. A weak market would accept the lower prices established by the spike by defending its base at 7371 (Smashlevel). The next level for sellers to defend was 7398 (UT1), as failure to do so would put Wednesday’s breakdown into question. Overnight, the main focus was on 7371, which buyers took control of during the Euro session, with VIX actually breaking below its support level at 19.56. The 7398 level initially slowed upside momentum, but buyers reclaimed it ahead of the RTH session, signaling weak sellers in the context of Wednesday’s breakdown.

During the RTH session, buyers defended the 7398 level twice: first immediately in the A-period, and then again during the D- and E-periods, where the auction formed a poor low. There was little reason to maintain a bearish intraday bias, as sellers’ failure to defend 7371 and 7398 opened the door for a rotation back toward value.

This is how the auction process works: when the market moves away from balance (value), the key question is whether those new prices are accepted or rejected. Acceptance indicates that the market is willing to do business at the new price levels, allowing the move to continue. Rejection signals a lack of participation and often results in a rotation back toward prior value.

Session Recap

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Wednesday’s breakdown attempt from balance was rejected today, triggering a rotation back toward value. The key question now is whether sellers’ failure to sustain lower prices will increase confidence in a move in the opposite direction.

Last week’s gap remains unfilled at 7525.25, a key level for buyers to reclaim in order to shift the tone, as previously discussed.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7425 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7460, the composite LVN. Holding above 7460 signals stability and targets 7485 (UT1). Acceptance above 7485 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7525 (UT2), with 7548 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7460 shifts focus to 7425 (DT1), with 7400 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7460.

• Holding above 7460 would target 7485 / 7525 / 7548

• Break and hold below 7460 would target 7425 / 7400

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.12 and 16.06 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7548 with VIX below 16.06 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7400 with VIX above 18.12 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was fairly balanced, with the value area (70% of traded volume) developing between 7456 (Smashlevel) and 7485 (UT1 & Weekly Pivot). Sellers attempted to gain traction within Tuesday’s lower distribution early on, but the attempt failed, triggering a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7456 (see Figure 1). Any attempts to deviate from the 7456–7485 range were met with responsive buying or selling, keeping the auction in balance.

The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s single-print area, tested the upper distribution of Tuesday’s profile, and sold off. The auction was notably weak ahead of the FOMC meeting, clearing all downside targets toward 7403 (FDT) and effectively attempting a breakdown from the 4-day balance area. I’m typically not interested in directional moves ahead of big events. The F-period formed an excess low, triggering a counter-auction ahead of FOMC. The market showed its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting, where I prefer to take a step back and let other traders handle the price discovery process. Price action became highly volatile, with a retest of the 7485 level followed by a rather nasty L- and M-period. In the process, the F-period excess was negated, and the session closed with a downward spike (highlighted on the chart), now of short-term interest.

Session Recap

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The multi-day balance area that developed below last week’s gap was a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, and today’s session confirmed that view with a breakdown.

The key in the short term will be to monitor for continuation or lack thereof. A weak market will reject attempts to reclaim 7371 and 7398, keeping the imbalance intact and opening the door to a revisit of the multi-week balance lows in the 7250s.

Failure to do so would make a return to the high volume node at 7447 (value) the most reasonable outcome, representing the fairest prices to do business over the last couple of sessions.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7398 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7335 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7371, the base of the M-period spike. Holding below 7371 maintains downside pressure and targets 7335 (DT1). Acceptance below 7335 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7298 (DT2), with 7275 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7371 shifts focus to 7398 (UT1), with 7426 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7371.

• Break and hold above 7371 would target 7398 / 7426

• Holding below 7371 would target 7335 / 7298 / 7275

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.76 and 19.56 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7426 with VIX below 19.56 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7275 with VIX above 21.76 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick Update: Monday’s session closed at the upper end of its lower distribution. During the overnight session, the auction traversed that lower distribution, testing Monday’s VAL at 7425 (DT1), a level that ultimately proved pivotal during today’s session. A Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7425 triggered a rotation back toward 7458 (Smashlevel) during the Euro session.

An attempt to reclaim 7458 ahead of the RTH open failed after finding responsive sellers within Monday’s B-period single prints. This resulted in a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7458, with the reversal gaining momentum once the RTH session opened. During the Initial Balance (the first 60 minutes of RTH, consisting of A and B periods), the downside was capped by the 7425 level, which provided another solid LBAF setup.

The D-period cleaned up Monday’s single prints while forming a set of its own, which ultimately remained unfilled, effectively creating a double distribution profile for today’s session. Today’s upside was capped by 7485 (UT1), from which a reversal unfolded during the G-period. This reversal was particularly interesting from an order flow perspective (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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Monday’s trend day down was followed by a double distribution trend day higher today, with D-period single prints separating the two distributions. The single-print area also marks a low volume node (LVN) within the current 4-day balance area.

The auction remains in a state of short-term balance as it awaits additional market-generated information. FOMC is on deck tomorrow, serving as a potential catalyst.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7456, the breakout single prints. Holding above 7556 signals stability and targets 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7456 shifts focus to 7426 (DT1), with 7403 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7456.

• Holding above 7456 would target 7485 / 7525

• Break and hold below 7456 would target 7425 / 7403

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.26 and 17.16 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7403 with VIX above 19.26 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with an open above 7485 (UT1), leaving Thursday’s and Friday’s inventory in a tricky position. Buyers then defended 7485 (intraday bullish), leading to a move toward 7525 (FUT) during the Euro session. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, acceptance above 7525 is required to meaningfully shift the tone. As the auction approached 7525, VIX was testing its support level at 17.52 (LOD 17.53), making it a poor location for initiating new longs and an area where sellers could potentially respond. Whenever FUT or FDT is reached, one should immediately ask, regardless of VIX: Is this a good location to chase?

Sellers did step in ahead of RTH, triggering a reversal that gained momentum once the RTH session opened. Responsive sellers within the gap area triggered a quick return to the area where value was built on Thursday and Friday. The liquidation break stalled at 7426 (DT1), and sellers were unable to gain meaningful traction below, providing multiple Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setups. Remember, aggressive sellers were trapped in that area on Thursday and may have seen their opportunity to exit once the level was revisited.

The auction established a well-defined distribution between 7458 (Smashlevel) and 7426 (DT1) following the initial volatility. Note how the past three sessions have remained largely unchanged since reaching the composite high volume node (HVN) (90D VPOC), signaling the development of short-term balance. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted lower from 7546 to 7447, which is bearish in the context of Thursday’s true gap lower.

In the Weekly Plan, an HTF level for NQ was highlighted at 27930 as a level of interest. Today’s session printed a low of 27939, from which a solid reversal unfolded. This level also closely aligns with the 10% correction level at 27872, an inflection point worth monitoring during corrections.

Session Recap

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Today’s session saw responsive sellers step in within last week’s gap area, retracing the overnight gains. In the process, value was established largely unchanged relative to Thursday’s and Friday’s sessions.

Acceptance of lower prices suggests that this remains a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, within the context of Thursday’s true gap down, which remains unfilled (7525.25).

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below today’s VAL at 7425 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7458, Friday’s Initial Balance high, coinciding with today’s FS VWAP. Holding below 7458 maintains downside pressure, targeting Today’s VAL at 7425 (DT1). Acceptance below 7425 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7458 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7458.

• Break and hold above 7458 would target 7485 / 7525

• Holding below 7458 would target 7425 / 7403 / 7362

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.62 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.62 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday kicked off with responsive buyers, partially filling Thursday’s gap before running into passive sellers. Aggressive buyers lacked the size needed to push through the passive liquidity, resulting in a reversal and a close at session lows (see Figure 1). The downside momentum has currently stalled at an area of prior balance, marked by the 90D VPOC, which we use as a reference for long-term value.

Session Recap

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The auction has established a 2-day balance, which is now of short-term interest. The key question is whether sellers can continue to accept lower prices following Thursday’s gap lower and maintain downside pressure.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1), Thursday’s VAL, where notable aggressive selling activity was absorbed.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7458, Friday’s Initial Balance high, coinciding with the FS VWAP. Holding below 7458 maintains downside pressure, targeting Thursday’s VAL at 7426 (DT1). Acceptance below 7426 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7458 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7458.

• Break and hold above 7458 would target 7485 / 7525

• Holding below 7458 would target 7426 / 7403 / 7362

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.64 and 17.52 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with responsive buyers at the key 7485 level on Monday. This ultimately led to a fill of the gap at 7548.25, where sellers stepped in, resulting in a classic gap-fill reversal (see Figure 1). A double distribution profile was established as the auction rotated back to the 7485 level.

Monday’s trend day was rejected on Tuesday, and buyers attempted to gain acceptance back above the key 7548 level on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but without meaningful success. By monitoring order flow, we could observe consistent absorption as aggressive buyers were absorbed by passive sellers above 7548 during both sessions (see Figure 2).

Change took place on Thursday as the auction established a true gap down after rejecting the 7548 level overnight. Downside momentum stalled at the 7420 level, a composite high volume node, but sellers had once again initiated a directional move. The key heading into Friday’s session was whether the move would gain acceptance or be rejected.

Friday kicked off with responsive buyers, partially filling Thursday’s gap before running into passive sellers. Aggressive buyers lacked the size needed to push through the passive liquidity, resulting in a reversal and a close at session lows (see Figure 3).

The auction has established a 2-day balance, now of short-term interest. The key question is whether sellers can continue to accept lower prices following Thursday’s gap lower and maintain downside pressure.

If you are trading NQ, the relative weakness is evident, as NQ has already reached its June 9 lows. It’s worth monitoring how NQ behaves around its multi-week balance low, as this could provide directional clues for ES.

Additionally, I shared an HTF level for NQ a while ago at 27930. Notably, it aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (see Figure 4), making it a level worth monitoring should it be tested.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 2-day → High: 7496.50 / Low: 7411.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 11-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Thursday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled at 7525.25 and marked the breakdown from the multi-day balance area.

Friday’s attempt to fill the gap immediately found responsive sellers, and the auction has now established a 2-day balance that is of short-term interest.

Value building below the prior multi-day balance area would maintain downside pressure and keep the door open for a revisit of the multi-week balance low.

Failure to do so would set the stage for another attempt to fill Thursday’s gap; however, to meaningfully shift the tone, acceptance back into Wednesday’s range is required.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7485, a pivotal level over the past 11 weeks. Break and hold above 7485 targets the unfilled gap at 7525. Acceptance above 7525 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7600 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7630, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area is crucial for sellers to defend in order to prevent a multi-week balance breakout.

Holding below 7485 would be a short-term bearish development, targeting Thursday’s VAL at 7426. Acceptance below 7426 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward 7360, as well as the support area between 7280 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7250, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the current multi-week balance lows, is crucial for buyers to defend. A break of the multi-week balance low would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7485.

• Break and hold above 7485 would target 7525 / 7600 / 7630* / 7648 / 7735

• Holding below 7485 would target 7426 / 7360 / 7280 / 7250* / 7200

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Following both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions, notable order flow activity was observed around the 7548 level, within Thursday range from last week. Aggressive buyers were consistently absorbed by passive sellers. Absorption alone does not necessarily imply a reversal, but seeing it repeatedly at a key area that buyers needed to reclaim to negate last week’s shift in tone was meaningful market-generated information. Overnight, 7548 (Smashlevel) was tested and rejected early, marking the high of today’s notably weak session. During the European session, the auction built value below 7530 (DT1), signaling intraday weakness, while the VIX held above its resistance level at 17.52, adding bearish confluence. The final downside target at 7485 (FDT) was tagged and exceeded ahead of the RTH session.

The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, 30 handles below 7485 (FDT). When RTH opens above FUT, or below FDT, I typically take a defensive approach, meaning I’m cautious about chasing price. Regular readers know that a failure below the overnight low (ONL) is a solid fade setup when gapping lower, a sequence that often triggers an inventory correction. That setup ultimately played out today during A-period. It’s not necessarily something you have to trade, but at a minimum, it serves as a reason to avoid initiating shorts early in the session.

The best trade setup emerged during the A-period, following the retest of 7485 (FDT), with VIX holding well above its resistance. Contextually, failure to reclaim 7485, combined with an elevated VIX, would have maintained the potential for further weakness. Additionally, an inventory correction is not bullish unless acceptance is established back within the prior day’s range, which would negate the attempt to shift the tone initiated by sellers. Sellers stepped in at 7485, keeping this week’s inventory trapped and leading to another leg lower. In the process, the long-term value area (90D VPOC) was tagged, where downside momentum stalled.

Session Recap

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The key 7548 level was tagged overnight, marking today’s high, after which notable weakness followed. The auction subsequently established a true gap lower, with sellers once again initiating a directional move. The key now is whether this move gains acceptance or is rejected. As always, levels provide the framework for gauging the state of the market.

The immediate level of interest for assessing directional conviction is today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH) at 7478, which aligns closely with today’s VAH and FS VWAP.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1), today’s VAL, where notable aggressive selling activity was absorbed.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7457, today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH). Holding below 7457 maintains downside pressure, targeting today’s VAL at 7426 (DT1). Acceptance below 7426 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7457 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7457.

• Break and hold above 7457 would target 7485 / 7525

• Holding below 7457 would target 7426 / 7403 / 7362

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.72 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.72 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The 7548 level was a key reference heading into the week and has continued to play a significant role in the auction throughout the week. It’s important for obvious reasons, as it marks the lower end of last week’s upper distribution. It was also interesting from a short-term perspective given Tuesday’s notable order flow activity around the level. Overnight, sellers stepped in at 7547, triggering a rotation lower. The auction consolidated between the key levels 7530 (DT1) and 7510 (DT2) heading into the RTH session.

The 7548 level was revisited during the Initial Balance, once again attracting selling activity within Thursday’s range. The subsequent pullback retested 7530 perfectly, where responsive buyers stepped in. Defending 7530 kept the path open for another attempt at 7548, which ultimately unfolded. During Tuesday’s session, we observed notable absorption around the 7548 level, and today, passive sellers continued to absorb aggressive buyers within Thursday’s range, resulting in another close below 7548. This is a tricky short-term environment, made even more challenging by the fact that both the 5D VPOC and 20D VPOC sit at 7546. Stay nimble.

Session Recap

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From a contextual standpoint, not much has changed in the short term. Passive sellers continue to prevent acceptance back into Thursday’s range, while the auction continues to print higher highs and higher lows. Levels of interest remain unchanged.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), Thursday’s VAL, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7530 (DT1), today’s halfback, trapping today’s buying effort in the process.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7548, Thursday’s low. Holding below 7548 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7530 (DT1). Acceptance below 7530 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7510 (DT2), with 7485 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7548 shifts focus to Thursday’s VAL at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7548.

• Break and hold above 7548 would target 7578 / 7605

• Holding below 7548 would target 7530 / 7510 / 7485

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.52 and 15.78 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 15.78 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7485 with VIX above 17.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.