— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Monday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Carry forward the holiday ATH at 7569.75 as unfinished business, given that it has not yet been revisited during RTH. I would also carry forward Friday’s after-hours high at 7495, which the holiday session gapped above overnight. Notably the session was capped by the final upside target at 7565 (FUT). The overnight session immediately began retracing the gains, which is not uncommon following thin holiday trade. The key level to monitor was, of course, the prior ATH and 2-week balance high at 7540, as discussed in the pre-open analysis. Notably, both the ON VPOC and FS VWAP were positioned at 7540 heading into the RTH session, confirming the importance of the level (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened within the 2-week balance area, and buyers attempted a breakout during the Initial Balance. A failed Initial Balance extension in the C-period, however, triggered weakness. The early gains were quickly retraced in the D- and F-periods, bringing a potential failed breakout scenario into play. The Look Above and Fail of 7540 should have triggered additional weakness, but stronger sellers were absent, which made trading tricky for the remainder of the session. Note the lack of excess at today’s low, suggesting crowded momentum sellers were caught at a poor location and unable to gain meaningful traction within last week’s range.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session produced conflicting market-generated information, with an early failed breakout followed by a lack of stronger sellers to capitalize on the failure. The auction remains stuck between the prior ATH at 7540 and last week’s high, leaving it in a bit of no man’s land.

Keep it simple: value building above 7540 would be a bullish development, keeping the broader context unchanged and targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75, carried forward as unfinished business.

Value building below 7519 would end the daily structure of higher highs and higher lows, opening the door to build on today’s failed 2-week balance breakout.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7519, today’s low and the holiday opening level. Holding above 7519 signals stability and targets the prior ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7519 would shift focus to the support area between 7495 and 7484 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7456 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7519.

• Holding above 7519 would target 7540 / 7569 / 7595

• Break and hold below 7519 would target 7495 / 7484 / 7456

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.88 and 16.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 16.14 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7456 with VIX above 17.88 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session opened with a small true gap higher, which was filled in the B-period following an early Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7509. In the process, the Smashlevel at 7479 was tagged almost to the tick, offering a clean reversal (LOD: 7478.75). Beyond that, the session offered limited opportunities.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday’s session opened with a small true gap higher, which was filled in the B-period following an early Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7509. In the process, the Smashlevel at 7479 was tagged almost to the tick, offering a clean reversal (LOD: 7478.75). Beyond that, the session offered limited opportunities.

As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the weekly timeframe has developed into a 2-week balance following a period of one-sided trade.

In the short term, however, buyers are attempting a move away from value, which can clearly be seen in the composite profile on the far right of the chart.

The key now is to monitor for continuation, or lack thereof, with the LVN at 7484 as the immediate reference of interest.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7516 (UT1), targeting all-time highs, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7456 (DT1), opening the door to a rotation back to value.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7484, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7484 signals stability and targets Friday’s IB High at 7516 (UT1). Acceptance above 7516 would signal intraday strength, targeting the ATH at 7540 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7565 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7484 would shift focus to 7456 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7420 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7484.

• Holding above 7484 would target 7516 / 7540 / 7565

• Break and hold below 7484 would target 7456 / 7420

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.58 and 15.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7565 with VIX below 15.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7420 with VIX above 17.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, resulting in a test of the key level at 7390, marking the prior week’s value area low (VAL) and aligning with the Monthly VWAP. This was a key level for sellers to break and build value below in order to potentially shift the tone. Responsive buyers stepped in on every attempt to gain traction below 7390, and Monday’s session ended with a closing squeeze.

Heading into Tuesday, the daily was one-time framing down, implying a structure of lower highs and lower lows. However, the overall context remained unchanged, as sellers would need not only to establish value lower on the daily timeframe but also on the weekly timeframe, making 7390 a critical level.

Sellers managed to achieve a daily close below 7390 and the Monthly VWAP on Tuesday, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. Heading into Wednesday, the key question was whether sellers could reoffer 7390 and defend that level.

The overnight session offered great setups around our key levels from Wednesday’s plan. The first setup was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7390. An exhaustive move above 7390 was quickly rejected, with aggressive sellers stepping in as the market moved back below the level (see Figure 1).

Rejecting 7390 led to a 30-handle reversal that tested 7360 (DT1), which in turn offered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup (see Figure 2).

Sellers were ultimately unable to defend the 7390 level, leading to a short-covering rally during the Wednesday RTH session, which formed a P-shaped profile and ended the daily structure of lower highs and lower lows.

Thursday’s session was fairly uneventful early on, which was expected as the auction was positioned in the middle of balance (see Figure 3). Change took place in the H-period, when a directional move to the upside was initiated. In the process, last week’s gap at 7479.75 was filled, a pivotal level discussed in the Weekly Plan due to its alignment with the prior week’s value area high (VAH).

The 7479 level was pivotal on Friday, offering a clean reversal after being tagged almost to the tick during the RTH session. Beyond that, it was a session with limited opportunities.

The failure to gain traction below last week’s value area early in the week, which was needed to meaningfully shift the tone, ultimately led to a reversal back in the direction of the prevailing trend.

The key question now is whether the auction is ready to explore higher prices, or if the three stacked weekly VPOCs will act as a magnet and pull price lower (see Figure 4). The weekly is currently in a 2-week balance.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7478.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 2-Week → High: 7540 | Low: 7354.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is to monitor the current 2-week balance area, ranging from 7354 to the ATH at 7540, where two-sided activity has developed following a period of one-sided trade.

Note the stacked weekly VPOCs, considered the fairest prices to do business over the past three weeks. Buyers initiated a move away from this HVN at 7420 late last week, making the LVN at 7484 a key level to monitor early in the week.

A bullish development would be defined by value building above this LVN, setting the stage for a revisit of all-time highs and a potential balance breakout attempt. Failure to do so would put the HVN in play as a downside magnet, with a break below opening the door to a test of the balance lows.

For sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, a sustained breakdown below the 2-week balance area would be required.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7484, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7484 would target the ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540, indicating a sustained breakout, would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the Monthly Extreme High at 7585, as well as the resistance area between 7635 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7484 would target the high volume node (HVN) at 7420, acting as a downside magnet. Acceptance below 7420 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7360 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7330, where buying activity can be expected. This support area is crucial for buyers to defend, as a sustained breakdown of the 2-week balance area could meaningfully shift the tone.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7484.

• Holding above 7484 would target 7540 / 7595 / 7635 / 7665* / 7700

• Break and hold below 7484 would target 7420 / 7360 / 7330* / 7299 / 7270

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Early in the overnight session, sellers attempted to gain traction below 7424 (DT1), but the attempt failed, leading to a reversal that tested 7452 (Smashlevel). Buyers then attempted to build value above 7452, but that effort also failed, sending the market back inside Wednesday’s range heading into the RTH session.

The RTH session opened within Wednesday’s range and value area, implying that two-sided activity could be expected early on. The auction was sitting right at the 20D VPOC at 7420, right in the middle of balance, further supporting expectations for rotational trade, or “chop.” Sellers continued to struggle to gain traction below 7424 (DT1), where passive buyers absorbed selling pressure. Other than scalping rotations off order flow activity (see Figure 1), it was a rather lackluster session from A- through G-period.

Change took place in the H-period, when a directional move to the upside was initiated. In the process, last week’s gap at 7479.75 (UT1) was filled, a pivotal level discussed in the Weekly Plan due to its alignment with last week’s value area high (VAH). The auction looked above 7479 and failed (LAAF), resulting in the formation of an excess high followed by a pullback.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session was fairly uneventful up until the H-period, when a directional move to the upside was initiated away from value. In the process, last week’s gap at 7479.75 was filled, where sellers were waiting.

To gauge the strength or weakness of the auction, I’m using two key references: last week’s VAH at 7479 and Wednesday’s high at 7456.

Value building above 7479 sets the stage to revisit all-time highs, while failure to hold 7456 opens the door to a return to the HVN at 7420.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7479, last week’s VAH. Holding below 7479 would target Wednesday’s high at 7456 (DT1). Acceptance below 7456 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7420 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7390 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7479 would shift focus to 7509 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7540 (FUT), the ATH, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7479.

• Break and hold above 7479 would target 7509 / 7540

• Holding below 7479 would target 7456 / 7420 / 7390

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.66 and 15.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7540 with VIX below 15.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7390 with VIX above 17.66 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session offered great setups around our key levels from the plan. The first setup was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7390 (Smashlevel). An exhaustive move above 7390 was quickly rejected, with aggressive sellers stepping in as the market moved back below the level (see Figure 1).

Rejecting 7390 led to a 30-handle reversal that tested 7360 (DT1), which in turn offered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup (see Figure 2).

We discussed that initiating selling was required to move lower, as the auction had reached the lower end of the large composite distribution highlighted on the chart. Several attempts to gain traction below 7360 lacked seller initiative, which was enough to attract responsive buyers and trigger notable reversals. Pre-open, 7415 (UT1) was tagged, also offering a LAAF setup (see Figure 3).

The RTH session opened within the prior day’s range, and two-sided activity took place during the Initial Balance. Responsive buyers stepped in below the 7390 level, showing no interest in building value within Tuesday’s value area. Once buyers ended the daily one-time framing down by breaking Tuesday’s high at 7415, and the C-period later came down to retest 7415 while failing to fill the B-period single prints, the path of least resistance naturally shifted to the upside.

The final upside target at 7448 (FUT) was tagged already in the D-period, while the VIX continued to hold well above its support level at 17.14. As you know by now, this implied that chasing longs was unfavorable. Tagging 7448 effectively completed a full traverse of the composite distribution, providing another reason not to chase. 7448 offered a reversal in the E-period (see Figure 4).

Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs have converged, located within this today’s range. The market is coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high volume nodes.

Smashlevels Recap

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Putting an end to the daily structure of lower highs and lower lows had the potential to trigger a squeeze, a scenario that ultimately played out today. The session formed a P-shaped profile, reflecting short covering.

The key now is whether new buyers step in to build on this move, or whether it becomes an opportunity for stronger sellers to step in. Monitor the composite distribution, as we closed at its upper end.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7479 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7424 (DT1), opening the door to fill the structure below the main distribution.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7452, where notable order flow activity took place. Holding below 7452 would target the afternoon pullback low at 7424 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7390 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7452 would shift focus to the unfilled gap at 7479 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7509 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7452.

• Break and hold above 7452 would target 7479 / 7509

• Holding below 7452 would target 7424 / 7390

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.36 and 16.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7509 with VIX below 16.54 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7390 with VIX above 18.36 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Trading activity during the overnight session was all over the place, but remained within Monday’s range. Last week’s value area low at 7390 was tested once again, where buyers continued to step in. Overall, it was a choppy overnight session with a lack of clear opportunities.

The RTH session was much better in terms of setups. The initial balance range was relatively wide, highlighted by a white vertical line along the daily profiles on the chart, printing a 46-handle range. A wide IB typically sets the stage for rotational activity if the market struggles to gain traction outside of the IB range. The interesting nuance today was that the final downside target at 7360 (FDT) was tagged in the B-period, raising the question of how attractive it was to chase a potential IB extension lower. Another valuable piece of information was that the VIX remained well below its resistance level at 18.84, implying that chasing shorts around 7360 was unfavorable.

After consolidating around 7360 for a couple of periods, enough shorts were trapped for a squeeze that was initiated in the F-period. The squeeze was capped by 7415 (Smashlevel), and sellers ultimately got the close below last week’s value (7390) and the Monthly VWAP. Today’s profile was b-shaped, and the key question now is whether sellers can follow through to the downside and target the unfilled gap at 7299.75. Note the composite volume profile on the far right of the chart: we are trading at the lower end of this large distribution, implying that initiating selling is required to move lower, and that a lack of seller initiative is enough to attract responsive buyers.

Smashlevels Recap

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The daily structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact after today’s session, with sellers managing to close below both last week’s VAL at 7390 and the Monthly VWAP at 7385.

The auction has reached the lower end of a composite distribution, implying that the easy work for sellers is done and that initiating sellers are now required to move price lower.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7360 (DT1). NVDA earnings tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7390, last week’s VAL. Holding below 7390 would target 7360 (DT1). Acceptance below 7360 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7327 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7299 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7390 would shift focus to 7415 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7448 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7390.

• Break and hold above 7390 would target 7415 / 7448

• Holding below 7390 would target 7360 / 7327 / 7299

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.98 and 17.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7448 with VIX below 17.14 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7299 with VIX above 18.98 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened below Friday’s range and the HVN at 7420 (DT1), but a quick reclaim of this level opened the door for a rotation higher. This move ultimately failed to sustain, despite the market initially building value above 7420 following the reclaim. The next break of 7420 triggered a move lower, testing the next level of interest at 7390 (DT2). This level marked last week’s value area low and coincided with the Monthly VWAP, a key area for sellers to build value below this week in order to meaningfully shift the tone, as discussed in the Weekly Plan. 7390 ultimately capped the downside today. The VIX printed a high of 19.44, very close to our resistance level at 19.48.

The RTH session opened within Friday’s range, and two great setups developed early on (see Figure 1).

The first was a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7420 (DT1), triggering a squeeze toward 7448 (Smashlevel). The second was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7448, which ultimately marked today’s HOD (see Figure 2). The afternoon session was all about the 7390 (DT2) level. Sellers attempted to gain traction below 7390 on multiple occasions, each time was met by responsive buying. Notably, the session closed back within Friday’s range, following a closing squeeze, but value was established lower.

Smashlevels Recap

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While the daily is one-time framing lower, today’s trading activity remained mostly within last week’s value area, suggesting that the overall context is unchanged.

As discussed, for sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, they would need not only establish value lower on the daily timeframe, but also on the weekly timeframe. This makes last week’s VAL at 7390, aligning with the Monthly VWAP, a key level to break, where buyers stepped in today.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7448 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7390 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7415, today’s Initial Balance Low (IBL). Holding above 7415 would target 7448 (UT1). Acceptance above 7448 would signal intraday strength, targeting Friday’s true gap at 7479 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7509 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7415 would shift focus to last week’s VAL at 7390 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7360 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7415.

• Holding above 7415 would target 7448 / 7479 / 7509

• Break and hold below 7415 would target 7390 / 7360

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.84 and 16.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7509 with VIX below 16.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7360 with VIX above 18.84 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers were unable to defend 7509 (Smashlevel) during Friday’s overnight session, triggering weakness. All intraday downside targets were tagged and exceeded pre-open, while VIX remained elevated above its 18.22 resistance level. The overnight weakness led to an RTH open on a true gap down, marking a short-term shift in tone and leaving Thursday’s inventory trapped. Buyers struggled throughout the session to reclaim 7465 (FDT), a key pivot when the RTH session opens below it.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key in the short term is to monitor whether the minor achievements from sellers on Friday can develop into something more meaningful.

Friday’s session saw a true gap down, which remains unfilled at 7479.75 and notably aligns closely with last week’s VAH.

Wednesday’s double distribution trend day was rejected in the process, with the session ultimately closing back inside its lower distribution.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7479 (UT1), rejecting Friday’s true gap, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below the HVN at 7420 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7448, Friday’s TPOC and halfback, aligning with the weekly VWAP and the upper end of Wednesday’s lower distribution. Holding below 7448 would target the HVN at 7420 (DT1). Acceptance below 7420 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7390 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7360 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7448 would shift focus to the unfilled gap at 7479 (UT1). with a final upside target at 7509 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7448.

• Break and hold above 7448 would target 7479 / 7509

• Holding below 7448 would target 7420 / 7390 / 7360

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.48 and 17.38. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7509 with VIX below 17.38 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7360 with VIX above 19.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with Monday’s session establishing value higher, maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe. A key principle is that trend structure does not shift until one-time framing up ends, which is why it is generally better to wait for that confirmation before attempting to fade it. Picking tops (or bottoms) is rarely effective; it is often better to wait for the market to return to balance before attempting counter-trend trades.

On Tuesday, the daily one-time framing up ended, triggering a pullback to the high volume node at 7365, from which a V-shaped reversal unfolded. The M-period formed a spike, which was key to monitor heading into Wednesday’s session.

Sellers initially rejected the higher prices from Tuesday’s spike area on Wednesday. However, the failure to gain acceptance into Tuesday’s value area triggered a reversal. In the process, a double distribution trend day was formed, and the market once again shifted from a balanced state, which it entered after the daily one-time framing up ended on Tuesday, into imbalance.

Wednesday’s breakout from balance was followed by a continuation higher on Thursday, effectively clearing all intraday upside targets toward 7540 (FUT) and tagging the weekly resistance area between 7535 and 7565. As discussed throughout the week, in trending conditions, it’s about patience and avoiding chasing. Let counter-trend moves stall or get absorbed, then join the continuation (see Figure 1).

Thursday’s session offered great setups around intraday levels, including a fade of 7540 (FUT) with delta divergence (see Figure 2). The VIX failed to confirm strength by holding above support, making longs around 7540 unfavorable to chase. Note the aggressive sellers stepping in near 7540.

This pullback led to a test of another level of interest at 7510 (UT1), where we had FS VWAP, IBH, and halfback as confluence. Aggressive sellers didn’t have enough size to push through the passive limit orders, resulting in a squeeze (see Figure 3).

Notably, this area of trapped sellers was then revisited, providing another solid bounce (see Figure 4). Note the selling exhaustion coming into the trap area.

After finding sellers within the weekly resistance area between 7535 and 7565, Friday’s session opened with a true gap down, which remains unfilled at 7479.75. The session closed back within Wednesday’s lower distribution, effectively negating Wednesday’s trend day.

The key question now is whether sellers can follow through and end the weekly one-time framing up, introducing further weakness, or if buyers will once again step in and buy the dip. Notably, Friday’s gap at 7479.75 aligns with last week’s value area high (VAH), a key area for sellers to defend.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 3-Day → High: 7540 | Low: 7399
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7363.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled at 7479.75 and aligns with last week’s VAH. The week closed within weekly value, rejecting Wednesday’s trend day, and more notably below the weekly VWAP, a nuance we haven’t seen in a while. The question now is whether these minor achievements from sellers can develop into something more.

A strong response would involve rejecting Friday’s true gap and rotating back within Thursday’s range, effectively building value above last week’s value area. This would keep the broader context unchanged, with buyers maintaining firm control of the auction.

Failure to do so, with follow-through to the downside, could introduce short-term weakness. For sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, they would need not only establish value lower on the daily timeframe, but also on the weekly timeframe. This makes last week’s VAL at 7390, aligning with the monthly VWAP, a key level to break.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7479, Friday’s true gap, aligning with last week’s value area high (VAH) and the ATH VWAP. Break and hold above 7479, implying rejection of Friday’s true gap, would target the ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7585 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7615, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure. Note that the Monthly Extreme High sits at 7595, adding another layer of significance to this resistance area.

Holding below 7479, implying acceptance of Friday’s shift in tone, would target last week’s value area low (VAL) at 7390, aligning closely with the monthly VWAP. Acceptance below 7390 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7300 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7270, where buying activity can be expected. Note the unfilled true gap at 7299.75. This support area is crucial for buyers to defend, as acceptance below it would open the door for a return to the high volume node at 7160 (20D VPOC), completing a 5% correction from the current ATH.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7479.

• Break and hold above 7479 would target 7540 / 7585 / 7615* / 7645 / 7675

• Holding below 7479 would target 7390 / 7300 / 7270* / 7208 / 7160

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s trend day had three sets of single prints, but only the F-period singles are showing on the chart due to the use of 5-tick increments. The overnight session showed no interest in cleaning them up, which is a bullish indication. Remember, poor structure in balance and poor structure during breakouts (Wednesday’s session was a breakout from balance) are two very different contexts. The former is more likely to be cleaned up than the latter. The overnight session built a distribution around the ATH at 7484 (UT1), while printing a new ATH at 7499.25 in the process.

The RTH session opened within Wednesday’s range, but the market showed no interest in remaining within Wednesday’s value and immediately auctioned higher. This is typical behavior during imbalance, a state the daily shifted into following Wednesday’s breakout from balance. Building value above 7484 (UT1) was bullish intraday, as outlined in the prior plan. The first opportunity to join in the direction of the imbalance emerged in the B-period, during a pullback where aggressive sellers were being absorbed (see Figure 1). During a trend, it’s crucial not to chase and to stay patient for pullbacks, otherwise stop placement becomes tricky.

The final upside target at 7540 (FUT) was tagged to the tick in the F-period, marking today’s HOD. I got many questions about why 7510 and 7540 were potential targets for today: 7540 was a bullish imbalance target derived from taking Wednesday’s value area range and projecting it above the high. 7510 was simply twice the range of Wednesday’s upper distribution. 7540 (FUT) was reached with a flat VIX, suggesting it was a poor location for initiating new longs or chasing. On top of that, there was a notable delta divergence when tagging 7540 (see Figure 2).

During trend days, the afternoon session typically sees an inventory correction, often leading to an afternoon pullback low (APBL). The F-period, which tagged 7540, also ended the intraday one-time framing up and triggered the pullback. The 7510 (UT2) level was retested in the process, where we had FS VWAP, IBH, and halfback confluence. Aggressive sellers didn’t have enough size to push through passive limit orders, resulting in squeeze (see Figure 3). Notably, this area of trapped sellers was then revisited, providing another solid bounce (see Figure 4).

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Wednesday’s breakout from balance was followed by a continuation higher today, effectively clearing all intraday upside targets toward 7540 (FUT). Note the lack of interest in spending time within the prior day’s value area, typical behavior in a state of imbalance.

The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 7509. Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7540 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7486 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7509, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7509 signals stability and targets the ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7565 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7509 would shift focus to 7486 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7465 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7509.

• Holding above 7509 would target 7540 / 7565 / 7595

• Break and hold below 7509 would target 7486 / 7465

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.22 and 16.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 16.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7465 with VIX above 18.22 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers made an early attempt to gain traction below Tuesday’s spike base at 7420 overnight, which was rejected, triggering a rotation higher. The initial upside target at 7444 (UT1) was tagged and exceeded during the Euro session, but weakness emerged pre-open following the PPI data release, erasing all overnight gains. There was a lot of activity around the Smashlevel at 7420 pre-open (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s spike area, and the key question, as discussed in the prior plan, was whether sellers could reject this area together with last week’s high and potentially trigger downside pressure. In the A-period, last week’s high was rejected, and sellers made another attempt to gain traction below Tuesday’s spike base (7420). Up until this point, sellers were in control. However, in the B-period, that control faded as sellers were ultimately unable to defend the 7420 level. During the C-period, buyers reclaimed the FS VWAP and last week’s high, signaling early that shorts were unfavorable. A double distribution formed, and a new ATH was printed as the market broke out of the multi-day balance area. The auction is once again attempting to transition from balance to imbalance, in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Smashlevels Recap

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The market came into balance on Tuesday after breaking the daily higher low structure, a state that ultimately proved short-lived.

Today’s session developed into a double distribution trend day, breaking out of balance into uncharted territory, following Tuesday’s long liquidation that cleared weak hands.

The focus now is on today’s F-period single prints separating the distributions. Value building within today’s upper distribution, while rejecting attempts to gain acceptance back below 7448, would be a strong response supporting today’s breakout.

Failure to do so, i.e. acceptance back into the lower distribution, would bring a failed breakout scenario into play.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7465, a small set of single prints. Holding above 7465 signals stability and targets the ATH at 7484 (UT1). Acceptance above 7484 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7510 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7540 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7465 would shift focus to 7448 (DT1). Acceptance below 7448 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7420 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7390 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7465.

• Holding above 7465 would target 7484 / 7510 / 7540

• Break and hold below 7465 would target 7448 / 7420 / 7390

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.88 and 16.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7540 with VIX below 16.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7390 with VIX above 18.88 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Acceptance within last week’s range and an end to the daily one-time framing up were two key objectives needed to shift the tone from the one-sided auction we’ve seen recently. Monday’s session formed an excess high, giving this thesis more confidence to play out. Sellers gained traction within last week’s range overnight, defended the retest, and weakness followed. Buyers managed to defend 7405 (DT1) multiple times pre-open, resulting in the RTH session opening within Monday’s range.

Sellers ended the daily OTFU and breached the 7405 level immediately during the A-period. Remember, building value below 7405 was bearish intraday. Buyers failed to reclaim 7405 during the B-period after rejecting Monday’s low, and sellers subsequently extended the Initial Balance to the downside in the C-period, forming single prints and developing a double distribution profile. Downside momentum stalled at the high volume node where value was established on Wednesday and Thursday last week, an area marked in the prior plan as a potential liquidation target.

The auction was one-time framing down intraday, and during a trend day this dynamic often ends in the afternoon session, when the market typically sees an inventory correction, often leading to an afternoon rally high. The G-period formed a poor low within the HVN, and this was accompanied by the VIX making a notable lower high, a divergence not favoring sellers, an early clue that a potential break of the intraday OTFD was in play. Once the H-period took out the G-period high, shorts began to cover. Instead of an afternoon rally high forming, the auction proceeded with a V-shaped reversal. The session, however, closed within last week’s range (7427), a key level to continue to monitor.

Smashlevels Recap

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Traction within last week’s range and a break of the daily higher low structure triggered a pullback today into where value was built on Wednesday and Thursday last week, from which a V-shaped reversal unfolded.

Immediate focus is on the highlighted M-period spike around last week’s high. A strong response would involve value building above the spike base, while failure to do so, i.e. rejecting last week’s high, would open the door to a traverse of the multi-day value area. PPI data on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7420, the spike base. Holding above 7420 would target 7444 (UT1). Acceptance above 7444 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7471 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7498 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7420 would shift focus to 7390 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7356 (FDT), the multi-day value support, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7420.

• Holding above 7420 would target 7444 / 7471 / 7498

• Break and hold below 7420 would target 7390 / 7356

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.10 and 16.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7498 with VIX below 16.88 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7356 with VIX above 19.10 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with early weakness, as sellers gained immediate traction below Friday’s value area. The auction revisited Friday’s large excess low from the A-period, but that was essentially it. Friday’s low was weak against Thursday’s VAH and Wednesday’s spike base, suggesting that if breached, we should have seen follow-through. The lack of follow-through signaled weak sellers. Following this, buyers slowly rotated back into Friday’s value area heading into RTH.

Buyers picked up the dip pre-open at 7405 (Smashlevel), and we rallied right out of the gate in the A-period to clean up the unfinished business (lack of excess) at the all-time high at 7427.75 (UT1). The first meaningful pullback immediately found buyers at FS VWAP in the C-period, rejecting Friday’s value area.

This type of initiating behavior, with buying above value, is typical during periods of imbalance (a trending environment), which is why contextual awareness is critical for selecting the appropriate strategy. Mean reversion trades are getting hit hard. The next level of interest at 7454 (UT2) was tagged in the I-period, where upside momentum stalled (HOD: 7454.75). While today’s session was also P-shaped like Friday’s, today’s high at least formed better excess (see Figure 1 on chart). It remains to be seen whether it is meaningful. The VIX continues to rise while ES continues to print new all-time highs, a divergence worth paying attention to.

Smashlevels Recap

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The auction continues to establish value cleanly higher, in line with a phase of imbalance, while the daily structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact.

Keep it simple: that dynamic must shift for the tone to meaningfully change, which would require acceptance back into last week’s range and an end to the daily OTFU. CPI data on deck tomorrow!

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7450 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below the 7405 LVN (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7427, last week’s high. Holding above 7427 signals stability and targets 7450 (UT1). Acceptance above 7450 would signal intraday strength, targeting the 100% IB extension at 7474 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7506 (FUT), the 200% IB extension, under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold 7427 would shift focus to the LVN at 7405 (DT1). Acceptance below 7405 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7384 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7350 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7427.

• Holding above 7427 would target 7450 / 7474 / 7506

• Break and hold below 7427 would target 7405 / 7384 / 7350

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.48 and 17.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7506 with VIX below 17.28 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7350 with VIX above 19.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

On Friday, a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7350 during the overnight session, the Smashlevel (pivot), triggered a strong continuation higher that cleared all intraday upside targets into 7427 (FUT) and printed a new ATH at 7427.75. As the auction approached 7427, the VIX held well above its support level at 16.02, suggesting that chasing longs was unfavorable, and a pullback subsequently unfolded.

Smashlevels Recap

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The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows (OTFU) remains intact following Wednesday’s true gap higher. Value was relatively unchanged on Wednesday and Thursday, but Friday’s session saw it migrate cleanly higher, forming a P-shaped profile that lacks meaningful excess.

Buyers remain in control of the auction, and only a rejection of Friday’s value and an end to the daily OTFU has the potential to change that.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7427 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7384 (DT1), implying a return into Wednesday and Thursday’s value areas.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7405, the low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7405 signals stability and targets the ATH at 7427 (UT1). Acceptance above 7427 would signal intraday strength, targeting the 100% IB extension at 7454 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7485 (FUT), the 200% IB extension, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7405 would shift focus to the LVN at 7384 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7350 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7405.

• Holding above 7405 would target 7427 / 7454 / 7485

• Break and hold below 7405 would target 7384 / 7350

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.22 and 16.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7485 with VIX below 16.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7350 with VIX above 18.22 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, following the formation of an excess high on Friday, May 1. In the process, the poor structure down toward 7208 was fully cleaned up and the session formed a double distribution trend day.

As discussed, for sellers to shift the tone, they needed not only to negate Friday, May 1’s true gap but also to gain acceptance into the prior multi-day balance area, implying acceptance below the 7208 level. Failure to do so would likely bring in responsive buyers.

A Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7208 on Monday marked the low of the week (see Figure 1).

Tuesday’s session completely negated Monday’s trend day, which triggered continuation in line with the prevailing trend. The excess high from Friday, May 1, was revisited in the process.

Heading into Wednesday, the daily was in balance following Monday’s session, which ended the daily one-time framing up. However, this consolidation was short-lived, as Wednesday saw a notable true gap higher. The auction came a few handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 7405, an area where the risk-reward profile for initiating new longs is unfavorable, especially given it was reached this early in the week.

While Thursday’s session provided a pullback from the 7405 level, following notable absorption overnight (see Figure 2), sellers were ultimately unable to do meaningful damage, failing even to take out the prior day’s low.

On Friday, a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7350 during the overnight session, the Smashlevel (pivot), triggered a strong continuation higher that cleared all intraday upside targets into 7427 (FUT) and printed a new ATH at 7427.75 (see Figure 3). The Weekly Extreme High at 7405 provided a pullback overnight after a notable trap (see Figure 4), but it was ultimately breached during RTH.

The HTF level for NQ at 27930, outlined last week, held during Monday’s session, from which it dropped 300 handles. However, it was reclaimed on Tuesday, which helped drag ES higher, in line with our discussion last week that acceptance above 27930 could have that effect.

Price exploration higher continues relentlessly. Reminder: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would avoid using those terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are being accepted, the market can continue to move higher. Note where the weekly VPOC finished, value continues to follow price.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7391.75
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Wednesday’s true gap higher, which remains unfilled (7299.75) and led to the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile. The auction has been notably one-sided for quite some time, but value continues to follow price, suggesting acceptance of higher prices, a dynamic that must shift for the tone to meaningfully change.

A strong response that keeps the context unchanged would see value building within last week’s upper distribution. This would set the stage for upside continuation, implying that the market has not yet auctioned high enough to attract a meaningful opposing response. The current ATH at 7427.75 lacks meaningful excess.

Failure to do so, implying a fill of the true gap and acceptance into last week’s lower distribution, would have the potential to shift the tone. In that scenario, downside potential would be improved if the market first attempts higher and forms an excess high.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7405, an LVN from last week’s upper distribution. Holding above 7405 would signal strength and target Friday’s 100% IB extension at 7454. Acceptance above 7454 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7535 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7565, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this resistance area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure. The Monthly Extreme High sits at 7595 for reference.

Break and hold below 7405, implying a rejection of Friday’s value, would target 7350, where sellers got trapped on Thursday. Acceptance below 7350 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7300 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7270, where buying activity can be expected. This support area is crucial for buyers to defend, as acceptance into last week’s lower distribution would be a sign of weakness and open the door for a return to the high volume node at 7160 (20D VPOC).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7405.

• Holding above 7405 would target 7454 / 7535 / 7565* / 7595 / 7630

• Break and hold below 7405 would target 7350 / 7300 / 7270* / 7208 / 7160

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

As discussed in the previous plan, the auction was becoming extended away from both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, creating an unfavorable risk-reward profile for chasing longs. Another important factor was the market coming just a few handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 on Wednesday. Some corrective activity would be constructive. The overnight session opened below Wednesday’s spike base at 7390, but sellers were unable to break 7375 (DT1), which was required to negate Wednesday’s afternoon strength. The 7390 level was then reclaimed, leading to price exploration into uncharted territory.

The overnight delta profile was particularly interesting, as aggressive buying emerged around 7405, the same area where we viewed chasing longs as unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective (see Figure 1). A new overnight ATH was made at 7410.50, which remained untested during RTH and therefore becomes a reference to carry forward as unfinished business.

RTH mirrored the overnight session, with early weakness below 7390 followed by auctioning higher through the C and D-periods. A poor high formed 2 ticks shy of the ON ATH at 7410.50, an early clue that buyers were becoming a bit overextended and crowded. The pullback that followed cleaned up Wednesday’s poor structure, which was not surprising given everything we have discussed.

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The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting little has changed contextually after today’s session. Buyers are controlling the auction, and only acceptance back within last week’s range has the potential to change that.

We carry forward the untested overnight ATH at 7410.50 and today’s poor high as unfinished business, given the lack of excess.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7378 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7327 (DT1), the top of the gap. NFP on deck tomorrow!

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7350, where buyers were active today. Holding above 7350 would target today’s halfback at 7378 (UT1). Acceptance above 7378 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7405 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7427 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7350 would shift focus to the top of the gap at 7327 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7299 (FDT), the true gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7350.

• Holding above 7350 would target 7378 / 7405 / 7427

• Break and hold below 7350 would target 7327 / 7299

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.02 and 16.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7427 with VIX below 16.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7299 with VIX above 18.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of the ON ATH at 7304, printed yesterday after hours, which would also imply value building above last week’s range. Buyers immediately reclaimed 7304 during the overnight session and then defended it, resulting in a rather one-sided auction for the rest of the session. In the Weekly Plan, we discussed how 7208 was a critical short-term inflection point if the auction was to clean up the structure from last Thursday’s double distribution trend day. The failure below 7208 ultimately triggered a reversal back in line with the prevailing trend. All upside targets were cleared pre-open (FUT: 7352).

Overnight strength led RTH to open on a true gap up, and buyers took control of the auction right out of the gate, with minimal trading activity below the opening level, defending 7330 (UT2). The C-period saw an Initial Balance extension to the upside, which buyers then responsively defended during the afternoon pullback in the G and H-periods. Notably, the VIX was not confirming strength, instead rising with the market. It remains to be seen whether that will have any implications for the rest of the week. As discussed, the weekly resistance area between 7375 and 7405 acted as an upside magnet as long as NQ held above its HTF level at 27930, which was reached in the afternoon.

Now, the auction has moved notably away from both the short-term value (5D VPOC) at 7280 and particularly the medium-term value (20D VPOC) at 7160, and today’s high was a few handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 (our weekly target). This implies that the risk-reward profile at the current location is unfavorable for initiating new longs. Some corrective activity would be constructive, as it should provide better locations to monitor for reloading buyers. This doesn’t mean fading the move; it simply means we’ve reached an area where pressing longs is tricky. Stay disciplined.

Smashlevels Recap

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The LBAF at the key 7208 level early in the week triggered a reversal and continuation in the direction of the trend. Today’s session extended that move after a sustained true gap higher, coming a few handles shy of the 7405 weekly target.

Buyers remain in firm control of the auction. Only acceptance back within last week’s range, closing today’s gap at 7299, has the potential to change that. This means the market can drop 100 handles and buyers would still be in firm control, so pick your trade locations cautiously.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7405 (UT1), while sellers first and foremost need to negate today’s D-period breakout by gaining acceptance below 7375 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7390, the spike base. Holding below 7390 would target the D-period high at 7375 (DT1). Acceptance below 7375 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7355 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7390 would shift focus to the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 (UT1). Acceptance above 7405 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7427 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7455 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7390.

• Break and hold above 7390 would target 7405 / 7427 / 7455

• Holding below 7390 would target 7375 / 7355 / 7327

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.52 and 16.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7455 with VIX below 16.28 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 18.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question after Monday’s session, during which the auction cleaned up the poor structure from Thursday, was whether sellers could truly shift the tone by gaining acceptance within Thursday’s lower distribution. Failure to do so would keep buyers in control. Buyers reclaimed the Smashlevel at 7242 overnight, something stronger sellers would not have allowed, leading to a steady grind higher that extended into RTH. Prior to the RTH open, NQ finally took out the HTF level at 27930 after several earlier attempts, a move that had the potential to drag ES higher, as discussed in the Weekly Plan. The weekly resistance area between 7375 and 7405 acts as an upside magnet if NQ continues to build value above 27930.

Buyers reclaimed 7268 (UT1) during the Initial Balance, making it difficult to be a seller and suggesting the path of least resistance was a move toward Friday’s excess high, with the final upside target at 7296 (FUT). Overall, it was a rather lackluster RTH session, which is typical during slow grind higher conditions. Outside of continuation plays above 7268 (UT1), there wasn’t much to do, but building value within Friday’s range was a clear sign to stay out of shorts. Friday’s excess high was reached and provided a selling reaction, so technically the daily remains in balance; however, a new ATH was printed after-hours at 7304.25, a reference to carry forward as unfinished business. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 7160 to 7280, another bullish indication. Value continues to follow price.

Smashlevels Recap

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Sellers needed acceptance into Thursday’s lower distribution to shift the tone, but were ultimately unable to do so, resulting in continuation in line with the prevailing trend today.

Friday’s excess high was revisited, and while it held during RTH (now a weak high), it was taken out after hours, printing a new ON ATH at 7304.25.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7304 (UT1), i.e. value building above last week’s range, while any weakness would require acceptance back within Monday’s lower distribution below 7242 (DT1), which would also imply acceptance back within last month’s range.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7280, the HVN/APBL. Holding above 7280 signals stability and targets 7304 (UT1). Acceptance above 7304 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7330 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7352 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7280 would shift focus to the support area between 7251 and 7242 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7212 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7280.

• Holding above 7280 would target 7304 / 7330 / 7352

• Break and hold below 7280 would target 7251-42 / 7212

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.34 and 16.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7352 with VIX below 16.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7212 with VIX above 18.34 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) at 7275 (UT1), which remained the session high (ONH: 7279.75). The auction had been building value within Friday’s range before a notable headline-driven liquidation break unfolded during the Euro session. This drop, which came out of nowhere, found responsive buyers within the poor structure from Thursday’s session, leading to a return to the Smashlevel at 7251.

RTH opened with a small true gap down within Thursday’s range, but sellers failed to gain traction early. Buyers attempted to establish acceptance back within the prior day’s range after reclaiming 7251, which is the most bullish outcome when gapping lower. However, a failed initial balance extension in the C-period marked a notable shift in tone. Notice how passive sellers were absorbing aggressive buyers above the Initial Balance High (see Figure 1).

An interesting confluence during this sequence was NQ testing the referenced key level at 27930. Notable weakness followed, leading to the formation of a double distribution profile, with single prints in the D-period. The final downside target at 7208 (FDT) was tagged in the process, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 2). The subsequent bounce found reloading sellers within the D-period singles, coinciding with VIX testing its previously broken resistance level from above at 17.92.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday’s session formed an excess high, marking the end of one auction and the start of another. Today’s session confirmed the shift, ending the daily one-time framing up and establishing value cleanly lower.

Thursday’s poor structure was fully cleaned up in the process, but as previously discussed, unless sellers can gain acceptance back within Thursday’s lower distribution, today’s move was primarily a structural cleanup rather than a true shift in tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7268 (UT1), i.e. acceptance back into Friday’s value, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7212 (DT1), opening the door to a move back toward the HVN at 7160.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7242, the Initial Balance Low. Holding below 7242 would target today’s excess base at 7212 (DT1). Acceptance below 7212 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7180 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7160 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7242 would shift focus to 7268 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7296 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7242.

• Break and hold above 7242 would target 7268 / 7296

• Holding below 7242 would target 7212 / 7180 / 7160

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.32 and 17.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7296 with VIX below 17.28 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7160 with VIX above 19.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers initiated a breakout from the developing 9-day balance on Thursday, forming a double distribution trend day with four sets of single prints and shifting the auction into imbalance. This was followed by upside continuation on Friday after a sustained true gap higher (7251).

Friday’s session established an excess high, which was well auctioned from an order flow perspective (volume tapering). This is a key nuance to carry forward, as excess often marks the end of one auction and the start of another.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed over the weekend, immediate focus is on where value develops relative to Thursday’s high at 7251 (last month’s high), which Friday’s session gapped above.

Acceptance into Thursday’s range targets a cleanup of the highlighted poor structure, while buyers’ main objective, on failure to do so, is to negate Friday’s excess high.

Any meaningful shift in tone requires acceptance back into Thursday’s lower distribution below 7208, bringing a failed breakout into play.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7251, Friday’s true gap. Holding above 7251 signals stability and targets Friday’s TPOC/FS VWAP at 7275 (UT1). Acceptance above 7275 would signal intraday strength, targeting Friday’s excess base at 7296 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7320 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7251 would shift focus toward 7232 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7208 (FDT), Thursday’s breakout single prints, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7251.

• Holding above 7251 would target 7275 / 7296 / 7320

• Break and hold below 7251 would target 7232 / 7208

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.92 and 16.06. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7320 with VIX below 16.06 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7208 with VIX above 17.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.