— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s weakness carried into the overnight session, with sellers breaking below 7764 (DT1) and keeping pressure on the auction. As a result, all downside targets were cleared toward the final target at 7718 (FDT), where responsive buyers stepped in and excess formed. Within this excess, notable orderflow activity was observed at 7712, unusually large for the overnight session (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened with a true gap down inside Monday’s gap area. As mentioned in the pre-open update, strength would be defined by a reclaim of 7764 (DT1), effectively negating today’s gap, while a weak market builds acceptance below 7718 (FDT). Immediate resistance was 7739 (DT2), which buyers managed to reclaim early on, with VIX dropping below its resistance level at 15.82. This triggered a gap-fill attempt, which ultimately failed as the auction came within three ticks of Wednesday’s low before a reversal unfolded.

Once buyers lost 7739 and VIX returned above 15.82, it looked like the auction was preparing to fill Monday’s gap at 7718 and repeat the overnight session. However, news headlines instead triggered a squeeze. This is part of trading and why it’s crucial to stay disciplined at all times. The news spike was capped by 7784 (Smashlevel), printing a high at 7783.50, after which two-sided trade developed for the rest of the session.

Session Recap

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Despite notable overnight and early RTH weakness, today’s session ultimately closed back within Wednesday’s range after partially filling Monday’s true gap, helped by news headlines.

Wednesday’s low at 7758, which aligns with today’s Initial Balance high, is a key reference I’m using to gauge the short-term state of the auction.

A weak market builds value below 7758, rejecting both today’s and Wednesday’s VPOCs. This would once again open the door to a fill of Monday’s gap. Acceptance above 7781, ending the daily one-time framing down in the process, would be a sign of strength.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7758.

• Holding above 7758 would target 7781 / 7805 / 7838

• Break and hold below 7758 would target 7738 / 7718

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.42 and 14.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.92 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7718 with VIX above 16.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Following Monday’s session, we noted that trading could be tricky after coming within reach of the Weekly Extreme High at 7855 as early as Monday. Tuesday then formed a weak high, potentially signaling buying exhaustion, while aggressive buying above 7838 was absorbed by passive sellers.

During the overnight session, buyers again struggled to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838, eventually leading to a small liquidation break pre-open (see Figure 1).

Just before the flush, aggressive buyers were once again absorbed by passive sellers. Note how price failed to move higher between the highlighted lines despite heavy aggressive buying on the tape (see Figure 2).

This was also clearly visible on the Footprint chart (see Figure 3).

Without orderflow, this underlying activity can be difficult to see. Candlesticks show where price traded, but not the interaction between aggressive and passive traders, which can provide an extra layer of context.

The RTH session opened below Tuesday’s value area and immediately showed weakness, slicing through both 7816 (Smashlevel) and 7800 (DT1) in the process. Monday’s poor structure was almost completely cleaned up during the Initial Balance, the first 60 minutes of RTH. The auction found responsive buyers a couple of handles shy off 7775 (FDT), in confluence with VIX testing its resistance at 14.84. However, buyers were unable to reclaim 7800 (DT1), signaling continued weakness intraday. The 7775 level was then revisited, with VIX once again hovering around its resistance, making it rather unfavorable to press the short side. Despite this, sellers managed to break below 7775 and evidently triggered some stops, but we ultimately closed out the session back near 7775.

Session Recap

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Following Monday’s notable trend day and Tuesday’s balanced session, which formed a weak high, we saw long liquidation today. The key question now, after fully cleaning up Monday’s poor structure, is whether today’s session was driven by stronger sellers or simply reflected a flush of weak-handed longs.

Today’s afternoon rally high at 7784 is a key reference I’m using to gauge the short-term state of the auction. Acceptance above 7784, and Monday and Tuesday’s HVN becomes a potential upside magnet. Sustained weakness below, and Monday’s gap could come into play.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7784.

• Break and hold above 7784 would target 7805 / 7838

• Holding below 7784 would target 7764 / 7739 / 7718

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.82 and 14.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.54 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7718 with VIX above 15.82 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

There’s not much to add after today’s rather uneventful session. As we discussed, it’s not uncommon for price action to be muted the day after an emotional session like Monday’s, which can make for tricky trading conditions. Traders who tried to trade Monday’s price action again today were unlikely to find much success. Notable aggressive buying activity was absorbed today above the prior ATH at 7838, as we can observe on the delta profile.

Contextual awareness is one of the most important skills as a trader, allowing you to adapt quickly as market conditions change. That said, there’s nothing bearish about today’s session despite the lack of upside follow-through, as the auction was simply digesting Monday’s move. The fact that only one of Monday’s six sets of single prints was cleaned up today is a bullish indication.

The overnight session delivered failures above 7838 (UT1) for traders working the short side, while weakness after the Euro opened found responsive buyers following a Look Below and Fail of 7816 (Smashlevel). The RTH session was choppier, with aggressive buyers attempting to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838, only to be absorbed by passive sellers. Non-emotional, choppy environments are great for scalping rotations off orderflow activity.

There was an interesting sequence in the M-period, the final 30 minutes of RTH. Another attempt above 7838 was made by aggressive buyers, which was absorbed and followed by aggressive sellers stepping in, forming a reversal bar with relatively large volume. The VPOC of the reversal bar was then retested, where aggressive buyers were once again absorbed, triggering downside continuation (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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Today’s session saw consolidation at the upper end of Monday’s range as the market digested Monday’s significant move, which is often the case following a trend day.

The developing weekly profile has formed a P-shaped profile following today’s session. The main distribution is of short-term interest, where we can apply the balance guidelines as a framework. The current ATH is weak, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion and suggesting that stronger buyers may be lower.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7816.

• Holding above 7816 would target 7838 / 7855 / 7889

• Break and hold below 7816 would target 7800 / 7775

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.84 and 13.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7889 with VIX below 13.56 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7775 with VIX above 14.84 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened above last week’s high at 7720, and buyers immediately defended 7715 (UT1) on the early pullback, signaling strength (see Figure 1). This sequence ultimately marked the low of the day. The main objective for buyers was to break the pattern of lower highs on the weekly timeframe, making the early defense of 7715 an important sign of strength. The final upside target at 7757 (FUT) was reached shortly after the Euro session opened, where price briefly paused before pushing higher.

The overnight strength led the RTH session to open with a notable true gap higher, above 7757 (FUT). With overnight inventory 100% net long, the expectation was for a counter-auction (pullback) after the open. Failure to see one would have signaled extreme strength, as we have discussed before. The auction spent a few seconds below the opening level, finding buyers where aggressive sellers were trapped pre-open. This was followed by notable aggressive buying on the tape (see Figure 2).

I’m typically not involved in sessions that are trading above FUT if I don’t have a position already. The VIX was not on board with today’s strength, but as we discussed in the Weekly Plan, failure to find sellers at 7757 opened the door to a revisit of the all-time highs, which was ultimately accomplished during the afternoon session.

Today’s session came a few handles shy of tagging the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, our target for the week. This potentially makes the rest of the week tricky to trade. Acceptance above 7855, meaning value building above the prior ATH, would not provide favorable context for fading, while failure to do so would open the door to a potentially sizable pullback or two-sided trade without necessarily implying meaningful bearishness. It’s not uncommon for price action to become uneventful after a move like today’s, which can be frustrating for traders who were not part of it. Mind your step for the rest of the week.

Session Recap

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Breaking the pattern of lower highs on the weekly chart opened the door to a revisit of the all-time highs—a scenario that ultimately played out today.

The session developed into a multi-distribution trend day, with six sets of single prints highlighting the emotional nature of the move.

Short term, it’s all about observing whether buyers can gain acceptance above the prior ATH at 7838. If they fail to do so, we have some poor structure below to clean up, potentially making for tricky trading conditions ahead.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7816.

• Holding above 7816 would target 7838 / 7855 / 7889

• Break and hold below 7816 would target 7800 / 7775

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.58 and 14.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7889 with VIX below 14.14 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7775 with VIX above 15.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session was marked by two-sided activity, with responsive sellers stepping in at 7735 (UT1) overnight, which was highlighted as a potential Look Above and Fail area. During the RTH session, 7711 (Smashlevel) was rejected early on, leading to a rotation to 7690 (DT1), a level at which sellers ultimately struggled to gain meaningful traction below. The session then rotated back to 7711, where we closed out the week. Note the poor high, with three daily highs closely clustered together, contributing to the bullish imbalance on the weekly profile.

Session Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key question after notably rejecting the prices from Wednesday’s lower distribution is whether buyers can break the pattern of lower highs on the weekly timeframe that has been in place since the all-time highs were established.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7715 (UT1), Friday’s Initial Balance high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7684 (DT1), Friday’s Initial Balance low.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7697.

• Holding above 7697 would target 7715 / 7735 / 7757

• Break and hold below 7697 would target 7684 / 7669

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.52 and 14.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7757 with VIX below 14.12 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7669 with VIX above 15.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, we transitioned to the ESZ26 (December) contract. As a reminder, my charts are not back-adjusted, meaning historical prices remain unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference, as both approaches have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is typically minimal since we focus on the auction one day at a time.

Monday kicked off with weakness, opening below the weekly pivot at 7711 and rotating lower, coming a few handles shy of filling the roll gap at 7659, where responsive buyers stepped in. The subsequent upside was capped by 7711 (see Figure 1).

It’s worth noting that Monday’s session did take out the previous week’s high by 2 handles, but I still interpret the weekly as one-time framing down, given the rollover and the fact that both SPX and SPY have yet to do the same.

The roll gap was officially filled on Tuesday, after which the downside was capped by the prior ATH at 7648 during a rather uneventful RTH session (see Figure 2).

Change took place on Wednesday, driven by the FOMC meeting. The market established a double distribution trend day to the downside, closing the session below the prior ATH at 7648.

The key for sellers was to establish acceptance within the lower distribution, making 7634, the upper end of Wednesday’s lower distribution, a key level for sellers to defend.

Buyers immediately reclaimed 7634 overnight, which triggered a significant squeeze (see Figure 3).

Wednesday’s weakness was rejected, ultimately resulting in a return to the 7711 level on Thursday, where we also closed out the week on Friday. The daily has essentially formed a poor high around that area, contributing to a bullish imbalance on the weekly profile. If this imbalance gets resolved to the upside, the pattern of lower highs on the weekly would be broken.

Looking at the weekly levels, the auction was basically contained within the key levels at 7711 and 7659, aside from Wednesday’s short-lived exploration lower. Looking at the weekly volume profile, it’s evident that sellers continue to struggle to gain meaningful traction below the prior ATH at 7648, which also marks the high of the prior multi-week balance.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 5-Day | High: 7719.75 / Low: 7575
🟥 Weekly: OTFD | Ends at: 7719.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7542.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain upside momentum after notably rejecting Wednesday’s double distribution trend day to the downside. Sellers continue to struggle to gain meaningful traction within the prior multi-week balance area, implying that the broader bullish structure remains intact.

The primary objective for buyers is to break the pattern of lower highs on the weekly, which has been in place since the all-time highs were established.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend last week’s LVN at 7697, which closely aligns with last month’s VAL (7695). Failure to defend this area would be short-term bearish and open the door to another test of the prior ATH at 7648.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the daily NVPOC at 7757. Failure to defend this area would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7697, the LVN from last week. Holding above 7697 would be short-term bullish, targeting the daily NVPOC at 7757. Acceptance above 7757 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as acceptance above the current ATH at 7838 could trigger another multi-week imbalance to the upside.

Break and hold below 7697 would be short-term bearish and target the prior ATH at 7648, which closely aligns with the bottom of Wednesday’s single prints at 7634. Acceptance below 7648 would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440, the long-term value (90D VPOC).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7697.

• Holding above 7697 would target 7757 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935

• Break and hold below 7697 would target 7648-34 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485 / 7440

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESZ26 (December) contract. As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. The roll gap at 7659.50 (ESU26 contract) has now been filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

After Wednesday’s double distribution trend day to the downside, the key question was whether sellers could sustain the move by building value within the lower distribution and accepting lower prices. This was particularly important for sellers, as the move was initiated from value, with both Wednesday’s VPOC and the composite HVN located in the upper distribution.

The key level to observe was 7634 (Smashlevel), which sellers failed to defend early overnight. Stronger sellers should have had little trouble defending this level. Instead, 7634 was breached and backtested before the auction continued higher toward 7669 (UT1) (see Figure 1). The pace of the move made it clear that a lot of traders were caught off guard. The final upside target at 7690 (FUT) was tagged during the Euro session, triggering a small pullback, but buyers managed to hold within Wednesday’s upper distribution, signaling strength.

Sellers defended multiple tests of 7690 before another 35+ handle squeeze took place pre-open. RTH then opened with a true gap higher, 24 handles above 7690 (FUT), making it an unfavorable location to chase new longs. With overnight inventory 100% net long, the expectation was for a counter-auction (pullback) after the open. Failure to see one would have signaled extreme strength, which is not a condition I’m interested in participating in with new positions given the poor intraday risk/reward profile.

Fortunately, the counter-auction took place, testing the 7690 level. There are instances where one can seek longs at a FUT level if the VIX remains below its support level, which it did today. However, keep in mind that target expectations must be adjusted accordingly. The session remained within its Initial Balance range and was rather uneventful, with the upside capped by 7711, a composite low volume node (LVN).

Session Recap

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Wednesday’s double distribution trend day to the downside was heavily rejected today, resulting in a return to value. The key question now is whether sellers’ failure to sustain Wednesday’s lower prices will increase confidence in a move in the opposite direction.

The weekly pivot at 7711, which capped both today’s and Monday’s sessions, will be key for buyers to reclaim in order to demonstrate strength.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Break and hold above 7711 would target 7735 / 7757 / 7775

• Holding below 7711 would target 7690 / 7669 / 7634

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.28 and 14.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 14.62 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7634 with VIX above 16.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESZ26 (December) contract. As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. The roll gap at 7659.50 (ESU26 contract) has now been filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers reclaimed 7662 (Smashlevel) early overnight, putting traders positioned within Tuesday’s main distribution under pressure. Successfully defending 7662 on multiple occasions led to a rotation higher, tagging the next level of interest at 7685 (UT1). A solid Look Above and Fail setup took place at the 7685 level pre-open, with an exhaustive pop above 7685 followed by aggressive selling stepping in (see Figure 1).

The 7685 level continued to be important during the RTH session, as buyers struggled to gain meaningful traction above it. As a reminder, acceptance above 7685 would have been bullish intraday, making it important for sellers to defend the level. With the FOMC meeting on deck, traders showed little interest in pushing the auction aggressively in either direction, resulting in muted price action.

Change took place in the J and, above all, K-periods as the FOMC triggered its typical volatility. As I always say, experienced day traders usually go flat beforehand, leaving the price discovery process to less experienced participants—unless a high-quality entry was established earlier and a runner was already in play. The auction cleared all downside targets toward 7589 (FDT), filling the bull gap at 7620 in the process. If you had not initiated a short by that point, there was no reason to chase the move at poor location. Those who did were ultimately squeezed into the close.

Session Recap

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A double distribution trend day was established today following a quiet session ahead of the FOMC, followed by the complete opposite afterward. In the process, a large set of single prints formed in the K-period, separating the two distributions.

Short term, I’m monitoring whether sellers can build value within the lower distribution. Continued acceptance at lower prices would be a bearish development, making the L-period high at 7634 a key level. Failure to do so would open the door to a rotation toward today’s upper distribution, where both today’s VPOC and the composite HVN are located.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7634.

• Break and hold above 7634 would target 7669 / 7690

• Holding below 7634 would target 7607 / 7589 / 7567

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.62 and 16.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7690 with VIX below 16.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7567 with VIX above 18.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESZ26 (December) contract. As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. The roll gap at 7659.50 (ESU26 contract) has now been filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was marked by early weakness, leading to a revisit of the prior ATH at 7648 (DT2). Buyers stepped in and defended this crucial HTF level twice, with strong confluence from the VIX testing its resistance at 17.92. The 7648 and 17.92 duo worked notably well today. Failure to defend 7659 (DT1) then triggered a sharp reversal heading into the RTH session, fully retracing the early weakness in the process.

During the RTH session, sellers took control of 7682 (Smashlevel) early on, once again triggering a notable reversal, this time to the downside. The auction returned to 7648, officially filling the roll gap at 7659.50 in the process, so that is now out of the way. Following the early liquidation break, price action was rather lackluster, with a distribution forming between the key 7659 and 7648 levels.

Session Recap

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Today’s session formed a double distribution trend day with a b-shaped profile following the early liquidation break. The roll gap at 7659.50 was filled in the process.

The key area to monitor in the short term is today’s main distribution between 7662 and 7648 for clues as to what the market wants next.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7685 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7648 (DT1). FOMC is on deck tomorrow!

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7662.

• Break and hold above 7662 would target 7685 / 7711 / 7735

• Holding below 7662 would target 7648 / 7620 / 7589

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.08 and 16.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7735 with VIX below 16.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7589 with VIX above 18.08 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESZ26 (December) contract. As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7659.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

We kicked off the week with the overnight session gapping lower, opening below both 7711 (Smashlevel) and 7690 (DT1). Sellers maintained control below 7690 throughout the overnight session, with the exception of a brief price exploration above the level during Asia. Failure to find acceptance above 7690 led to downside continuation, with the auction coming a few handles shy of tagging the final downside target at 7659 (FDT).

As frequently discussed, once the auction approaches an FDT level, chasing further downside generally becomes unfavorable from a risk/reward perspective. This doesn’t mean the market can’t continue lower, but rather that the potential reward no longer justifies the risk of initiating a new short position at such an extended location.

Both the overnight and RTH sessions found responsive buyers around the 7659 level. Sellers initially defended 7690 during RTH, triggering a solid reversal, but ultimately failed to break the overnight lows after a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of the Initial Balance range. The roll gap remains unfilled (7659.50). Buyers managed to gain traction above 7690 in the E-period, leading to a test of 7711, and this test coincided with VIX testing it’s broken resistance from above. The market saw a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7711, ultimately resulting in a return to 7690 following weakness into the close.

Note how, despite the contract rollover, the auction has found its way back to 7690, which has been the fairest price to do business this month. This is one of the reasons I don’t back-adjust my charts, as prior composite high volume nodes like this often remain magnets.

Session Recap

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The auction has found its way back to the composite HVN at 7690 following early weakness that came a few ticks shy of the roll gap at 7659.50, while the RTH session saw selling activity at the 7711 pivot. Keep in mind that TradingView rolls to the Z contract tonight, so don’t freak out.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7711 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7659 (DT1).

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Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7682.

• Holding above 7682 would target 7711 / 7735 / 7757

• Break and hold below 7682 would target 7659 / 7648 / 7620

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.92 and 16.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7757 with VIX below 16.26 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7620 with VIX above 17.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESZ26 (December) contract.

As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. I’ve marked Friday’s settlements on the chart for both ESU26 (September) at 7659.50 and ESZ26 (December) at 7727.25, reflecting a +67.75 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7659.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference; neither approach is inherently superior, and both have their pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The main objective for buyers on Friday was to put an end to the pattern of lower highs on the daily and negate Thursday’s true gap down at 7628 (UT1) in the process, which had the potential to trigger short-covering. The 7628 level was reclaimed overnight, leading to upside continuation. Our final upside target at 7672 (FUT) was reached before the RTH open, where upside momentum stalled, making the RTH session rather uneventful.

Session Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, several major events are on deck this week, including OPEX, VIX expiration, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover. These conditions typically make order flow less reliable, making it particularly important to stay nimble.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7735 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7690 (DT1).

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7757 / 7775

• Break and hold below 7711 would target 7690 / 7659

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.62 and 15.06. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 15.06 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7659 with VIX above 16.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESU26 contract:

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7643.

• Holding above 7643 would target 7667 / 7689 / 7707

• Break and hold below 7643 would target 7622 / 7590

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contract Rollover

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Tuesday following Monday’s holiday session. Sellers took control of the 7711 level overnight, resulting in a fill of the bull gap at 7691.25 during RTH. Failure to defend 7691 was short-term bearish, opening the door to another test of the prior ATH at 7648, as outlined in last week’s plan.

The 7691 level played a pivotal role on Wednesday, as the auction found sellers there overnight, leading to significant weakness (see Figure 1). In the process, the auction retested the prior ATH at 7648, which produced some good reactions.

Both Wednesday and Thursday opened with true gaps to the downside following big overnight moves, but the actual RTH sessions were notably uneventful. Trading can be very tricky under these conditions if you are an RTH-only trader. The expectation is that the market will follow through on the overnight activity, only for the RTH session to deliver very little.

This is where the intraday levels provided in each daily plan become invaluable. Each day, you are provided with FUT and FDT levels, derived from our models, which represent the final upside and downside targets for the session. FUT/FDT are generally unfavorable locations to chase, which can help keep you out of emotional trades after big overnight moves.

On Wednesday, the downside was capped by the FDT at 7633, which in turn delivered a great reversal from an order flow perspective (see Figure 2). Aggressive selling was initiated at a poor location. That doesn’t mean sellers can’t be right and that the market can’t continue lower, but when their effort is absorbed, it can create a great reversal opportunity by playing against those trapped sellers. That is ultimately what unfolded.

On Thursday, the downside momentum was capped by the FDT at 7589 (see Figure 3), while Friday’s short-covering rally stalled at the FUT at 7672 (see Figure 4).

If we take a look at the weekly levels, we can see how early weakness resulted in a fill of the gap at 7691. Failure to defend 7691 resulted in a test of the prior ATH at 7648, a level sellers attempted to build value below on Thursday. This failed notably, resulting in a short-covering rally on Friday.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 3-Day | High: 7682 / Low: 7585.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD | Ends at: 7717.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7542.75

Contract Rollover

Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESZ26 (December) contract.

As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. I’ve marked Friday’s settlements on the chart for both ESU26 (September) at 7659.50 and ESZ26 (December) at 7727.25, reflecting a +67.75 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7659.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference; neither approach is inherently superior, and both have their pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus is to stay nimble, as options and VIX expirations, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover are all on deck—conditions that typically make order flow less reliable.

From an auction perspective, the market remains in one-time framing down mode on the weekly, but sellers continue to struggle to gain meaningful traction within the prior multi-week balance area, something they need to achieve to shift the tone of the broader structure.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend the composite LVN at 7711. Failure to defend this area would be short-term bearish and open the door to filling the roll gap at 7659 (ESU26).

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the daily NVPOC at 7757. Failure to defend this area would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7711, the composite LVN. Holding above 7711 would be short-term bullish, targeting the daily NVPOC at 7757. Acceptance above 7757 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as acceptance above the current ATH at 7838 could trigger another multi-week imbalance to the upside.

Break and hold below 7711 would be short-term bearish and target the roll gap at 7659, which closely aligns with the prior ATH at 7648. Acceptance below 7659 would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward the unfilled bull gap at 7620, as well as the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440, the long-term value (90D VPOC).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Holding above 7711 would target 7757 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935

• Break and hold below 7711 would target 7659 / 7620 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was marked by strength during Asia, leading to a reclaim of 7654 (Smashlevel) and a test of Wednesday’s true gap area. As discussed, buyers needed to reclaim 7672 to signal strength, while sellers remained in short-term control as long as the gap at 7672 remained unfilled. Sellers stepped in within the gap area and regained control of 7654, resulting in significant weakness during the Euro session.

The overnight weakness led to the RTH session opening with its second consecutive true gap down. The auction tagged our final downside target at 7589 (FDT) during the Initial Balance, from which a solid bounce followed. This marks the second consecutive session in which our FDT capped the downside. Trade location is edge.

As always, when gapping lower, only acceptance back into the previous day’s range would negate the shift in tone. This means that any bounce can be expected to find sellers as long as the gap remains unfilled. The bounces were sold throughout the session, leaving the gap unfilled at 7628.75. The VIX resistance at 17.26, which had already been breached overnight, provided strong confluence, as the level was defended during RTH (see Figure 1).

Both the daily and weekly timeframes are now one-time framing down, meaning sellers continue to maintain short-term control of the auction. Today’s session also decisively breached the prior ATH at 7648, opening the door to a meaningful shift in tone from a broader perspective as well. Buyers will want to avoid spending too much time below 7648, as sustained acceptance below this level would set the stage for further downside pressure. Refer to the Weekly Plan for potential downside targets if buyers are unable to reclaim 7648.

Session Recap

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The pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily (and weekly) remains intact following another sustained true gap lower today, keeping sellers in short-term control.

The key question now is whether sellers can establish acceptance back within the prior multi-week balance area, which would add further downside pressure from a broader perspective as well.

The first order of business for buyers is to end the daily one-time framing down and negate today’s true gap at 7628. CPI data is on deck tomorrow.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7610.

• Break and hold above 7610 would target 7628 / 7648 / 7672

• Holding below 7610 would target 7589 / 7567 / 7540

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.82 and 16.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7672 with VIX below 16.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7540 with VIX above 18.82 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Today’s session provided great opportunities around our key levels of interest. Overnight, sellers stepped in and defended 7691 (Smashlevel), which was a contextually bearish development, as previously discussed. Failure to reclaim 7691 opened the door to a retest of the prior ATH at 7648 (DT1), which was ultimately achieved ahead of the RTH session. 7648, which of course is a pivotal HTF location, provided a couple of bounces both ahead of the RTH session and during the Initial Balance.

The RTH session opened with a true gap down, and notice the lack of trading activity above the opening level (A letter highlighted in green). Aggressive buyers didn’t have enough size to push through the passive limit orders, which resulted in sellers having firm control of the open. The D-period saw a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of the Initial Balance range, resulting in notable weakness. The final downside target at 7633 (FDT) was tagged in the process, where downside momentum subsequently stalled.

The FDT is generally an unfavorable location to chase, making it particularly interesting to see notable aggressive selling activity emerge in that area. Passive buyers absorbed this selling effort and perfectly defended 7633, creating a beautiful setup that played against the poorly located sellers (see Figure 1). After holding 7633, the auction found two-sided trade around the 7648 level throughout the remainder of the session.

Session Recap

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Heading into this week, the key for buyers was to defend 7691. Failure to do so was a bearish development, opening the door to a revisit of the prior ATH at 7648.

That revisit was achieved today following a sustained true gap down, bringing the auction once again to a critical HTF inflection point—the prior multi-week balance high. PPI data is on deck tomorrow.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7672 (UT1), today’s true gap, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7633 (DT1), last week’s VAL.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7654.

• Break and hold above 7654 would target 7672 / 7691 / 7711

• Holding below 7654 would target 7633 / 7610 / 7589

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.26 and 15.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7711 with VIX below 15.64 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7589 with VIX above 17.26 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Monday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Both during the holiday session and overnight, 7711 (Smashlevel) served as a key pivot. Sellers took control of it during the Euro session, leading to a test of Thursday’s true gap at 7691 (DT1), producing a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup. Given the importance of 7691, it was not surprising to see buyers step in and defend it ahead of the RTH open.

The RTH session kicked off with an inside-day breakdown after immediately rejecting 7711. Thursday’s true gap at 7691 was subsequently filled. As always, I don’t consider true gaps or poor structure officially filled or cleaned up unless it occurs during RTH. With the gap now officially filled during RTH, that is out of the way.

During the Initial Balance, the auction built value below 7691, a short-term bearish development. It was therefore important for buyers to find acceptance back above the gap area—something they ultimately struggled to do for the remainder of the session. Additionally, the VIX held above its resistance level at 15.24 throughout the session. The closing periods were marked by sustained weakness, with the auction coming a few ticks shy of tagging the final downside target at 7670 (FDT) (LOD: 7672.25).

Session Recap

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Today’s session rejected the strength seen on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a fill of Thursday’s true gap at 7691.25 and a close back within Wednesday’s upper distribution.

As previously discussed, building value within Wednesday’s range would be a bearish development, opening the door to cleaning up the poor structure toward the prior ATH at 7648, a key inflection point.

The main objective for buyers is to regain acceptance within Friday’s range, making the composite LVN at 7711 a key level to reclaim.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7691.

• Holding above 7691 would target 7711 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7691 would target 7670 / 7648 / 7633

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.46 and 14.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7735 with VIX below 14.94 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7633 with VIX above 16.46 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session opened within Thursday’s highlighted single prints, below 7747 (Smashlevel), leaving participants who initiated trades in Thursday’s upper distribution on the wrong side of the auction. It was therefore reasonable to expect sellers to defend 7747, which they ultimately did during the A-period. The rejection of Thursday’s upper distribution led to a clean-up of the poor structure and a rotation back into the lower distribution, where we closed out the week.

Session Recap

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Thursday’s true gap higher led to a double distribution trend day to the upside, which was rejected on Friday. Friday formed an inside day after cleaning up Thursday’s single prints.

While an inside day technically does not end the daily one-time framing higher, it does suggest short-term balance.

The key in the short term is to monitor how the auction behaves relative to Thursday’s gap at 7691.25. Continued value development above this level would be short-term bullish and keep Thursday’s shift in tone intact.

Failure to do so, which would also mean that the auction is unable to build value within last month’s value area, would be a bearish development.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7757 / 7775

• Break and hold below 7711 would target 7691 / 7670

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.24 and 13.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 13.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7670 with VIX above 15.24 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday after a true gap down. Sellers took control of the key 7711 level overnight, effectively negating Thursday’s breakout from the prior week (see Figure 1). Failure to defend 7711 was short-term bearish, opening the door to filling the bull gap at 7637.75, as outlined in last week’s plan.

Monday’s weakness was followed by another true gap down on Tuesday, filling the bull gap at 7637.75 in the process. Filling the gap meant that the auction had reached a critical inflection point, as it was retesting the multi-week balance breakout—the prior ATH at 7648. The session formed an excess low, which was an important nuance to carry forward given the critical HTF location (see Figure 2).

Notably, both Monday’s and Tuesday’s true gaps remained unfilled heading into Wednesday. A great reversal unfolded on Tuesday from an order flow perspective after buyers failed to fill the gap (see Figure 3).

Sellers made an attempt at downside continuation on Wednesday overnight, which resulted in a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of Tuesday’s low (see Figure 4). This sequence marked the low of the week. The RTH session then formed a double distribution trend day to the upside, filling Tuesday’s bear gap in the process.

Upside momentum carried into Thursday, which saw a true gap higher and another double distribution trend day to the upside, driven by headlines (see Figure 5). Buyers were unable to sustain the momentum on Friday, as the auction rotated back into Thursday’s lower distribution, where we closed out the week. However, Thursday’s true gap at 7691.25 remained unfilled.

If we take a look at the weekly levels, we can see how early weakness resulted in a test of 7637. The lack of initiating sellers below 7637 resulted in a rotation higher and a test of 7755, where responsive sellers stepped in.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends at: 7711.75
🟥 Weekly: OTFD | Ends at: 7766.50
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7542.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain upside momentum after defending the multi-week balance breakout last week. This was followed by a sustained true gap higher on Thursday.

Buyers now need to break the pattern of weekly lower highs and shift value higher, rather than allowing the continued development of overlapping lower value. Early-week development relative to Thursday’s gap at 7691.25 will therefore be key to monitor.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend Thursday’s true gap at 7691.25. Failure to defend this area, effectively rejecting Thursday’s shift in tone, would be short-term bearish and open the door to another test of the prior ATH at 7648.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend last week’s HVN at 7757. Failure to defend this area would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7691, Thursday’s true gap. Holding above 7691 would be short-term bullish, targeting the HVN at 7757. Acceptance above 7757 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so means that five weeks’ worth of inventory would need to start covering.

Break and hold below 7691 would be short-term bearish and target another test of the prior ATH at 7648. Acceptance below 7648, indicating a failed multi-week balance breakout, would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440, the long-term value (90D VPOC).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7691.

• Holding above 7691 would target 7757 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935

• Break and hold below 7691 would target 7648 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485 / 7440

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s main distribution, ranging from 7670 (Smashlevel) to 7691 (UT1), was our key focus today, and the overnight session traded almost perfectly within this range. Attempts to break out of this range were met with responsive activity, providing good trading opportunities, particularly during the European session (see Figure 1). The tone shift came about an hour before RTH opened, as buyers initiated a breakout above 7691 and subsequently defended the level on the retest.

While 7691–7670 was of short-term interest, the high volume area between 7711 and 7655 was key. As discussed, acceptance outside this range would open the door to a directional move. The RTH session opened with a true gap up, and buyers took control of the opening level. Note the limited trading activity below today’s open (A-period highlighted in green). Sellers were unable to fill today’s gap during the initial three periods, from A- through C-period, and notably, no 30-minute bar saw a close below the 7711 level.

The C-period looked below the Initial Balance low and failed, triggering a vicious reversal that was primarily driven by headlines. The aggressive seller below the IBL wasn’t too happy about that (see Figure 2). The squeeze left behind a large set of single prints in the D-period, separating today’s double distribution. Upside momentum stalled in the afternoon as the market consolidated its gains.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established a double distribution trend day after buyers defended the key 7670 level overnight and sustained a true gap higher. In the process, a large set of single prints formed in the D-period, separating the two distributions.

The highlighted upper distribution between 7766 and 7747 is the short-term focus. A breakout would target last month’s VAH, while a breakdown would open the door to filling today’s single prints. Acceptance into today’s lower distribution would be a sign of weakness. NFP is on deck tomorrow.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7747.

• Holding above 7747 would target 7766 / 7794 / 7814

• Break and hold below 7747 would target 7726 / 7691

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.06 and 13.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7814 with VIX below 13.58 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7691 with VIX above 15.06 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Tuesday’s excess base at 7633 (DT1) was tested multiple times during Asia, finding responsive buyers, but the bounces lacked meaningful follow-through. During the European session, sellers managed to take out 7633, opening the door to further downside. However, a Look Below and Fail of Tuesday’s low triggered a notable reversal (see Figure 1).

The rotation higher quickly saw a test of 7655 (Smashlevel), where heavy activity was observed before another reversal unfolded (see Figure 2 & 3). Notable order flow activity around a pre-identified level confirms that the area was not only important to us but to other market participants as well.

The RTH session opened right between 7655 and the prior ATH at 7648, with the A-period consolidating around the opening level. Change took place in the B-period, when buyers reclaimed 7655, signaling strength and keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Traction above 7655 triggered short-covering, reflected in the formation of single prints. In the process, Tuesday’s bear gap at 7674 (UT1) was filled, and the auction completed a rotation back to the high volume node at 7690 (UT2), between which the rest of the session consolidated.

A market that held above 7674 was bullish intraday, which made the significant absorption of aggressive sellers around 7674 a particularly interesting sequence today. Despite big effort, sellers were not able to meaningfully move price lower (see Figure 4). The RTH VWAP was there as confluence, and the VIX held below its support level at 15.52 from the B-period onward. Contextually, it was not a good location to press shorts regardless of what happened next. The market popped higher, but ultimately rotated back to 7674 into the close. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, representing short-term and medium-term value, have converged within today’s range.

Session Recap

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Sellers’ inability to build acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance area triggered a rotation back to value, the HVN around 7690, which has been the fairest price to do business recently. We can expect tricky two-sided trade within this HVA, while acceptance outside the 7711–7655 range opens the door to a directional move.

Short-term, the focus is on today’s highlighted main distribution between 7691 and 7670. A breakout would target Monday’s true gap at 7711.25, while a breakdown would open the door to filling today’s single prints and revisiting last week’s low at 7655.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7670, the lower end of today’s main distribution. Holding above 7670 signals stability and targets today’s poor high at 7691 (UT1). Acceptance above 7691 would signal intraday strength, targeting Monday’s bear gap at 7711 (UT2), with 7735 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7670 shifts focus to last week’s low at 7655 (DT1). Acceptance below 7655 would signal intraday weakness, targeting Tuesday’s excess base at 7633 (DT2), with 7610 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7670.

• Holding above 7670 would target 7691 / 7711 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7670 would target 7655 / 7633 / 7610

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.98 and 14.40. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7735 with VIX below 14.40 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7610 with VIX above 15.98 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The main objective for buyers was to negate Monday’s true gap down by reclaiming 7711 (UT1), the low volume node we’ve discussed recently. Failure to do so would maintain downside pressure. Overnight, the inability to reclaim 7711, followed by the failure to hold 7690 (Smashlevel), triggered significant weakness. As a result, price exploration below the 7711–7660 range took place, indicating that sellers were attempting to initiate a directional move from balance. As mentioned in the pre-open update, the key was to monitor whether sellers could establish acceptance below 7660, because if not, a move back to value remained on the table.

The RTH session opened with its second consecutive true gap lower, below 7655, putting both the daily and weekly timeframes into one-time framing down. The A-period looked below the overnight low and failed, coming a few ticks shy of the Final Downside Target at 7637 (FDT), triggering an inventory correction—a common fade setup when the market gaps lower. Buyers needed to accomplish the following: regain acceptance back within last week’s range, fill today’s gap, and establish acceptance back within Monday’s range. Failure to do so would essentially mean that the opening strength was simply an inventory correction rather than evidence of stronger buyers.

The C-period came a few ticks shy of filling today’s gap at 7674.75 (7673) before the first meaningful pullback unfolded. Buyers defended this pullback during the D-period, setting up another attempt at today’s gap in the E-period. The gap remained unfilled after reaching a high of 7673.75, from which a perfect reversal unfolded from an order flow perspective (see Figure 1). The afternoon session was marked by continued downside pressure, filling the bull gap at 7637.75 and probing into the prior multi-week balance area.

Session Recap

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Heading into this week, the key for buyers was to defend the LVN at 7711, as failure to do so would be short-term bearish and open the door to filling the bull gap at 7637.75. The gap was effectively filled today, meaning the auction has reached a critical inflection point as it now retests the breakout point from the multi-week balance area—the prior ATH at 7648.

Keep it simple: acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance, suggesting that the breakout has failed, would set the stage for continued downside pressure. Failure to do so, meaning acceptance back into last week’s range above 7655, would keep the broader bullish structure intact.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7655, last week’s low. Holding below 7655 would maintain downside pressure, targeting today’s excess base at 7633 (DT1). Acceptance below 7633 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7610 (DT2), with 7589 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7655 shifts focus to the bear gap at 7674 (UT1). Acceptance above 7674 would signal intraday strength, targeting the HVN at 7690 (UT2), with 7711 (FUT), Monday’s bear gap, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7655.

• Break and hold above 7655 would target 7674 / 7690 / 7711

• Holding below 7655 would target 7633 / 7610 / 7589

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.16 and 15.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7711 with VIX below 15.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7589 with VIX above 17.16 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.