— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question after Monday’s session, during which the auction cleaned up the poor structure from Thursday, was whether sellers could truly shift the tone by gaining acceptance within Thursday’s lower distribution. Failure to do so would keep buyers in control. Buyers reclaimed the Smashlevel at 7242 overnight, something stronger sellers would not have allowed, leading to a steady grind higher that extended into RTH. Prior to the RTH open, NQ finally took out the HTF level at 27930 after several earlier attempts, a move that had the potential to drag ES higher, as discussed in the Weekly Plan. The weekly resistance area between 7375 and 7405 acts as an upside magnet if NQ continues to build value above 27930.

Buyers reclaimed 7268 (UT1) during the Initial Balance, making it difficult to be a seller and suggesting the path of least resistance was a move toward Friday’s excess high, with the final upside target at 7296 (FUT). Overall, it was a rather lackluster RTH session, which is typical during slow grind higher conditions. Outside of continuation plays above 7268 (UT1), there wasn’t much to do, but building value within Friday’s range was a clear sign to stay out of shorts. Friday’s excess high was reached and provided a selling reaction, so technically the daily remains in balance; however, a new ATH was printed after-hours at 7304.25, a reference to carry forward as unfinished business. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 7160 to 7280, another bullish indication. Value continues to follow price.

Smashlevels Recap

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Sellers needed acceptance into Thursday’s lower distribution to shift the tone, but were ultimately unable to do so, resulting in continuation in line with the prevailing trend today.

Friday’s excess high was revisited, and while it held during RTH (now a weak high), it was taken out after hours, printing a new ON ATH at 7304.25.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7304 (UT1), i.e. value building above last week’s range, while any weakness would require acceptance back within Monday’s lower distribution below 7242 (DT1), which would also imply acceptance back within last month’s range.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7280, the HVN/APBL. Holding above 7280 signals stability and targets 7304 (UT1). Acceptance above 7304 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7330 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7352 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7280 would shift focus to the support area between 7251 and 7242 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7212 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7280.

• Holding above 7280 would target 7304 / 7330 / 7352

• Break and hold below 7280 would target 7251-42 / 7212

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.34 and 16.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7352 with VIX below 16.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7212 with VIX above 18.34 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) at 7275 (UT1), which remained the session high (ONH: 7279.75). The auction had been building value within Friday’s range before a notable headline-driven liquidation break unfolded during the Euro session. This drop, which came out of nowhere, found responsive buyers within the poor structure from Thursday’s session, leading to a return to the Smashlevel at 7251.

RTH opened with a small true gap down within Thursday’s range, but sellers failed to gain traction early. Buyers attempted to establish acceptance back within the prior day’s range after reclaiming 7251, which is the most bullish outcome when gapping lower. However, a failed initial balance extension in the C-period marked a notable shift in tone. Notice how passive sellers were absorbing aggressive buyers above the Initial Balance High (see Figure 1).

An interesting confluence during this sequence was NQ testing the referenced key level at 27930. Notable weakness followed, leading to the formation of a double distribution profile, with single prints in the D-period. The final downside target at 7208 (FDT) was tagged in the process, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 2). The subsequent bounce found reloading sellers within the D-period singles, coinciding with VIX testing its previously broken resistance level from above at 17.92.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday’s session formed an excess high, marking the end of one auction and the start of another. Today’s session confirmed the shift, ending the daily one-time framing up and establishing value cleanly lower.

Thursday’s poor structure was fully cleaned up in the process, but as previously discussed, unless sellers can gain acceptance back within Thursday’s lower distribution, today’s move was primarily a structural cleanup rather than a true shift in tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7268 (UT1), i.e. acceptance back into Friday’s value, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7212 (DT1), opening the door to a move back toward the HVN at 7160.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7242, the Initial Balance Low. Holding below 7242 would target today’s excess base at 7212 (DT1). Acceptance below 7212 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7180 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7160 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7242 would shift focus to 7268 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7296 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7242.

• Break and hold above 7242 would target 7268 / 7296

• Holding below 7242 would target 7212 / 7180 / 7160

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.32 and 17.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7296 with VIX below 17.28 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7160 with VIX above 19.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers initiated a breakout from the developing 9-day balance on Thursday, forming a double distribution trend day with four sets of single prints and shifting the auction into imbalance. This was followed by upside continuation on Friday after a sustained true gap higher (7251).

Friday’s session established an excess high, which was well auctioned from an order flow perspective (volume tapering). This is a key nuance to carry forward, as excess often marks the end of one auction and the start of another.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed over the weekend, immediate focus is on where value develops relative to Thursday’s high at 7251 (last month’s high), which Friday’s session gapped above.

Acceptance into Thursday’s range targets a cleanup of the highlighted poor structure, while buyers’ main objective, on failure to do so, is to negate Friday’s excess high.

Any meaningful shift in tone requires acceptance back into Thursday’s lower distribution below 7208, bringing a failed breakout into play.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7251, Friday’s true gap. Holding above 7251 signals stability and targets Friday’s TPOC/FS VWAP at 7275 (UT1). Acceptance above 7275 would signal intraday strength, targeting Friday’s excess base at 7296 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7320 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7251 would shift focus toward 7232 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7208 (FDT), Thursday’s breakout single prints, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7251.

• Holding above 7251 would target 7275 / 7296 / 7320

• Break and hold below 7251 would target 7232 / 7208

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.92 and 16.06. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7320 with VIX below 16.06 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7208 with VIX above 17.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with a double distribution trend day on Monday, as buyers stepped in to defend the single prints from the Friday, April 24 double distribution trend day. A textbook Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7183 marked the launching point of that trend day. Passive buyers were able to absorb the aggressive selling effort, triggering a reversal, exactly the type of behavior you want to see in an uptrend (see Figure 1).

Tuesday’s session rejected both Monday’s and Friday’s (April 24) trend days after buyers failed to defend Tuesday’s Smashlevel (pivot) at 7200 (see Figure 2). As a result, the auction returned to balance heading into Wednesday’s session, with FOMC and tech earnings on deck.

On Wednesday, two-sided trade continued as the market awaited tech earnings. While the session offered limited trade opportunities, a great Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup played out at 7156, the Smashlevel for the session.

Notice how price made a new low while cumulative volume delta (CVD) did not, signaling a lack of aggressive seller participation and potential exhaustion (see Figure 3). This is a divergence I like to see, especially around predefined levels of interest, particularly when it is counter to the prevailing trend.

Thursday’s overnight session was wild, to say the least. A vicious rally was initiated off the 7150 Smashlevel (see Figure 4), driven by tech earnings (AMZN, GOOG, MSFT & META).

This move was difficult to participate in unless joined early. The better opportunity came on the first meaningful pullback toward 7180 (UT1), where buyers stepped in to the tick (see Figure 5).

Another interesting sequence from this overnight session was the notable absorption at 7211.25 pre-open, from which a strong reversal unfolded, a move that extended into the RTH session, totaling 50 handles (see Figure 6).

This always looks great in hindsight; however, the key is knowing which trade locations are favorable, and more importantly unfavorable, before the fact, so you can act quickly when opportunities like these appear. This was aggressive buying being absorbed by passive sellers at the multi-day balance high, an unfavorable location for initiating longs.

During Thursday’s RTH session, buyers initiated a breakout from the developing 9-day balance, forming a double distribution trend day with four sets of single prints and shifting the auction into imbalance. This was followed by a true gap higher on Friday, a gap that remained unfilled (7251.75).

Friday’s session established an excess high, which was well auctioned from an order flow perspective (volume tapering). This is a key nuance to carry forward, as excess often marks the end of one auction and the start of another.

While ES formed an excess high and closed at the session lows, NQ once again showed relative strength on Friday. In last week’s Weekly Plan, a HTF level for NQ at 27930 was outlined as worth monitoring, along with both NQ and ES reactions. NQ came 13 handles shy of testing it (see Figure 7), while ES formed an excess high.

It remains to be seen if this coincidence carries any significance. I would continue to monitor behavior around 27930. Acceptance above it could drag ES higher, while failure to do so could introduce short-term weakness.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7255.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7137
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Thursday’s multi-day balance breakout and Friday’s true gap higher above last month’s range. While the gap remained unfilled (7251), Friday also established an excess high.

As excess often marks the end of one auction and the start of another, early focus is on where value develops relative to last month’s high, which should reveal whether the excess carries real significance.

A strong response would see value build within Friday’s range while rejecting acceptance back into Thursday’s range. This would set the stage for negating the excess high (7296), implying price has not yet auctioned high enough to attract a meaningful opposing response.

Failure to do so, implying acceptance into Thursday’s range and leaving the excess intact, would open the door to filling Thursday’s breakout structure toward the prior multi-day balance (7208), a critical short-term inflection point.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7251, Friday’s unfilled true gap. Holding above 7251 would signal strength and target Friday’s excess base at 7296. Acceptance above 7296 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7375 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7405, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this resistance area is reached, the less favorable it becomes to initiate new longs given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7251, implying a rejection of Friday’s true gap up, would target structural fills toward Thursday’s breakout single prints at 7208. Acceptance below 7208, indicating a rejection of the multi-day breakout, would signal weakness and open the door to a bearish continuation toward the high volume node (HVN) at 7160, as well as the support area between 7120 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7090, where buying activity can be expected. This would effectively complete a full traverse of the prior multi-day balance, a crucial area for buyers to defend. Failure to defend it opens the door to filling the poor structure toward the multi-week balance breakout point highlighted on the chart, an inflection point in the bigger picture.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7251.

• Holding above 7251 would target 7296 / 7375 / 7405* / 7445 / 7490

• Break and hold below 7251 would target 7208 / 7160 / 7120 / 7090* / 7031

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a vicious rally off 7150 (Smashlevel), a move difficult to participate in unless joined very early (see Figure 1). The better opportunity came on the first meaningful pullback toward 7180 (UT1), where buyers stepped in to the tick (see Figure 2).

What followed was wild price action, a full retrace of the rally before a sharp V-shaped reversal printed new overnight highs, tagging 7208 (UT2). Traders observing order flow could see that a passive seller was sitting at 7211.25, absorbing aggressive buyers (see Figure 3). That absorption led to a reversal that extended into the RTH session, totaling 50 handles.

The early weakness in the RTH session tested the HVN at 7160, where buyers took control of the auction. The VIX had already traded below its 17.84 support overnight and then decisively broke it again during the C-period, a key nuance. I say this because when the market started to build a distribution below the 7208 (UT2) level after the Initial Balance, the upper end of the multi-day balance, the setup for a breakout attempt was aligning, signaling caution against fading it.

The breakout came in the H-period, forming single prints, which also formed in the I, J, and K-periods, highlighting strong one-sided auction behavior. Keep in mind that poor structure in balance and poor structure during breakouts are two very different contexts. The former is more likely to get cleaned up than the latter, meaning that if this is a strong breakout, today’s structure should only partially fill, if at all. The session VPOC migrated into today’s upper distribution, a bullish data point to carry forward. A new RTH ATH printed at 7251.25, while after-hours extended to 7253.50, another reference to carry forward.

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After a wild two-sided overnight auction within balance, buyers initiated a breakout today, forming a double distribution trend day with four sets of single prints and shifting the auction into imbalance. As always, when conditions shift, we monitor for continuation or lack thereof.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7248 (UT1), the spike base, signaling continued initiating activity, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7208 (DT1), the upper end of today’s lower distribution, opening the door to a potential failed breakout.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7232, the lower end of today’s upper distribution. Holding above 7232 signals stability and targets the spike base at 7248 (UT1). Acceptance above 7248 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7280 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7305 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7232 would shift focus toward cleaning up poor structure into 7208 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7180 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7232.

• Holding above 7232 would target 7248 / 7280 / 7305

• Break and hold below 7232 would target 7208 / 7180

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.84 and 15.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7305 with VIX below 15.94 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7180 with VIX above 17.84 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Similar to the prior overnight session, early strength resulted in a break of the initial upside target at 7180 (UT1); however, buyers struggled to gain acceptance within Monday’s lower distribution, leading to a return into Tuesday’s range prior to the RTH open.

The RTH session opened within the prior day’s range and value, right in the middle of the composite high volume area, meaning we could expect two-sided activity early on. A Look Below and Fail setup at 7156 during the Initial Balance was essentially the only meaningful trade opportunity. Notice how price made a new low while cumulative volume delta (CVD) did not, signaling a lack of aggressive seller participation and potential exhaustion (see Figure 1).

This is a divergence I like to see, specifically around predefined levels of interest, in today’s case the Smashlevel. Once 7156 was reclaimed, the retest attracted buying activity, maintaining the pressure on trapped sellers. While it produced a solid move, it came a couple of handles short of 7180 (UT1). The remainder of the session essentially held within the composite HVN. The VIX resistance level at 18.84 held well throughout the session, providing potential ES scalps. After-hours trading had the potential to be volatile, and it was; however, it closed back within today’s range.

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Today’s session saw two-sided trade within the composite high volume area, meaning nothing has changed contextually, as the auction remains in a state of balance awaiting further market-generated information.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7180 (UT1), the low volume node (LVN), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7126 (DT1), the prior multi-day value support.

Failed breakouts from this range remain of interest for fading back to value, a classic mean-reversion strategy in balanced conditions.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7150, the Initial Balance Low. Holding above 7150 signals stability and targets the LVN at 7180 (UT1). Acceptance above 7180 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7208 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7230 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7150 would shift focus to 7126 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7092 (FDT), the HTF level, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7150.

• Holding above 7150 would target 7180 / 7208 / 7230

• Break and hold below 7150 would target 7126 / 7092

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.78 and 17.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7230 with VIX below 17.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7092 with VIX above 19.78 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The market made a new all-time high overnight at 7223.25, which was not retested during regular trading hours and is therefore carried forward as unfinished business. A Look Above and Fail at 7216 (UT1) led to a return within Monday’s range and a test of the Smashlevel at 7200. This level represented both Monday’s LVN and last week’s high, a key area sellers needed to break in order to introduce short-term weakness. Sellers achieved this overnight and then defended 7200 during the European session, triggering a downside continuation (see Figure 1).

The final downside target at 7162 (FDT) was tagged and briefly exceeded before buyers reclaimed it prior to the RTH open. As mentioned in the pre-market update, buyers needed to reclaim 7162 (FDT), preferably with the VIX breaking below its resistance level at 19.04. The A-period tested 7162 to the tick, and as the VIX dropped below 19, a 20-handle rally unfolded toward the next level of interest at 7180 (DT1) (see Figure 2). We’ve discussed the importance of the 7180 area heading into this week, and the area was reoffered on that bounce. Sellers managed to break 7162 (FDT) in the C-period; however, the VIX was not confirming the move, remaining below its resistance level. These are generally unfavorable conditions for chasing shorts below the FDT, as regular readers of this newsletter are aware. Did you notice the lack of pace and tempo below 7162, with sellers unable to even break the C-period low? Traders chasing shorts were squeezed during the afternoon session.

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Friday’s directional move from balance and Monday’s continuation were rejected today, triggering a return to value. The return to the high volume node (HVN) at 7160s implies the auction is in a balanced state heading into tomorrow’s FOMC and tech earnings. Carry forward the untested overnight ATH at 7223.25 as unfinished business.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7180 (UT1), the low volume node (LVN), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7126 (DT1), the prior multi-day value support.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7156, the HVN. Holding above 7156 signals stability and targets the LVN at 7180 (UT1). Acceptance above 7180 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7208 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7230 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7156 would shift focus to 7126 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7092 (FDT), the HTF level, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7156.

• Holding above 7156 would target 7180 / 7208 / 7230

• Break and hold below 7156 would target 7126 / 7092

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.84 and 16.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7230 with VIX below 16.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7092 with VIX above 18.84 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into this week, the key area was the low volume node separating Friday’s double distribution trend day, as discussed in our preparations. A strong response would involve building value within Friday’s upper distribution while rejecting attempts to gain acceptance back within the lower distribution. Overnight, sellers achieved an immediate break below the Smashlevel at 7183, but traction into Friday’s lower distribution remained limited. Once 7183 was reclaimed, any immediate potential for weakness was removed, which was reflected in the price action as the market rallied higher.

The RTH session opened within Friday’s upper distribution, where two-sided activity developed during the morning session, a bullish development in the context of Friday’s trend day. A failed Initial Balance extension to the upside in the C-period triggered a rotation lower to once again test the key 7183 level. After holding multiple tests of 7183, sellers finally forced a break. What should have accelerated lower instead turned into a textbook trap (LBAF) and reversal in line with the prevailing trend (see Figure 1). Passive buyers were able to absorb the aggressive selling effort, exactly the type of behavior you want to see in an uptrend. The initial upside target at 7210 (UT1) was tagged in the closing session.

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The failure of sellers to gain traction within Friday’s lower distribution led to upside continuation, forming another double distribution trend day with single prints in the H-period.

The same approach applies: use the LVN, which aligns with last week’s high, to gauge the short-term state of the auction.

Sellers’ main objective is to negate today’s trend day by returning inside last week’s range, which could potentially open the door for a revisit of the HVN at 7162. Failure to do so would maintain upside pressure.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7200, last week’s high, aligning with an LVN. Holding above 7200 signals stability and targets 7216 (UT1). Acceptance above 7216 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7232 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7260 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7200 would shift focus to the LVN at 7180 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7162 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7200.

• Holding above 7200 would target 7216 / 7232 / 7260

• Break and hold below 7200 would target 7180 / 7162

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.04 and 17.02. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7260 with VIX below 17.02 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7162 with VIX above 19.04 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The Smashlevel for Friday’s session was 7151, and notably, aggressive sellers were absorbed by passive buyers in that area. The failure of sellers to gain acceptance below 7151 ultimately served as fuel for an upside continuation that resulted in a breakout from the 5-day balance area (see Figure 1). A new ATH printed at 7200.50, which we carry forward as a poor high given the lack of excess.

Smashlevels Recap

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As we’ve already discussed, immediate focus is on where value develops relative to Friday’s LVN, which separates the two distributions of Friday’s trend day breakout from the multi-day balance.

A strong response would see value building within Friday’s upper distribution while rejecting attempts to gain acceptance back within the lower distribution and prior balance.

On a failed breakout, the HVN at 7162 becomes the downside magnet, with a traverse of the composite value area potentially coming into play.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7183, Friday’s afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7183 signals stability and targets 7210 (UT1). Acceptance above 7210 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7232 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7260 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7183 would shift focus to the HVN at 7162 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7126 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7183.

• Holding above 7183 would target 7210 / 7232 / 7260

• Break and hold below 7183 would target 7162 / 7126

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.76 and 17.66. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7260 with VIX below 17.66 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7126 with VIX above 19.76 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, the market consolidated the gains from the prior week’s historically one-sided auction. We kicked off the week with an inside day on Monday, while Tuesday’s session officially shifted the auction into a state of short-term balance after ending the daily one-time framing up. In the process, the true gap at 7089 was filled.

The true gap at 7089, closely aligned with our HTF level at 7092, was an area where responsive buyers found interest during both Tuesday’s and Thursday’s sessions, resulting in solid upside moves.

Thursday’s session offered a textbook Look Above And Fail setup from an order flow perspective. An exhaustive move above a level of interest (1) was followed by selling aggression (2), with aggressive buyers then being absorbed by passive sellers on the retest of the key level (3), triggering a downside continuation (see Figure 1).

Heading into Friday’s session, the market had developed into a 5-day balance area. This was a bullish consolidation, as reiterated all week, as the market was building value and accepting higher prices, showing no interest in cleaning up the structure from the prior week’s significant rally. Both the 5D and 20D VPOCs shifted higher into this balance area, a typically healthy condition after a directional move from value, with value following price.

The Smashlevel for Friday’s session was 7151, and notably, aggressive sellers were absorbed by passive buyers in that area. The failure of sellers to gain acceptance below 7151 ultimately served as fuel for an upside continuation that resulted in a double distribution trend day, breaking out of the 5-day balance area in the process (see Figure 2). A new ATH printed at 7200.50, which we carry forward as a poor high given the lack of excess.

While ES was consolidating most of the week, NQ was more directional, showing relative strength. We have an HTF level at 27930 for NQ, and if reached, I would monitor both NQ’s reaction at that level and whether ES responds.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7145
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7079.25
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE → TBD

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following Friday’s multi-day balance breakout. The session formed a double distribution profile, and immediate focus will be on where value develops relative to the low volume node (LVN) at 7183 early in the week, which should provide important clues as to whether Friday’s breakout is being accepted or rejected.

A strong response would see value building within Friday’s upper distribution, accepting the breakout. This would set the stage for upside continuation, implying that price has not yet auctioned high enough to attract a meaningful opposing response.

Failure to do so, implying acceptance back within Friday’s lower distribution and inside prior balance, would open the door to a rotation toward the opposite side of balance, a common outcome following a failed balance breakout.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7183-7162, marking a LVN and HVN. Holding above 7183 would signal strength and target Friday’s 300% Initial balance extension at 7232, equivalent to SPX 7200. Acceptance above 7232 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7320 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7350, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this resistance area is reached, the less favorable it becomes to initiate new longs, given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7162, implying a rejection of Friday’s multi-day balance breakout, would target the HTF Level at 7092. Acceptance below 7092 would target structural fills toward the support area between 7040 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7010, where buying activity can be expected. This area is a clear inflection point given its alignment with the prior RTH ATH at 7031 and the developing YTD value area high. Failure to defend it would put the multi-week balance breakout into question and open the door for a move back toward the high volume node at 6880.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7183.

• Holding above 7183 would target 7232 / 7320 / 7350* / 7375 / 7415

• Break and hold below 7162 would target 7092 / 7040 / 7010* / 6924 / 6880

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Responsive two-sided activity remains the dominant theme this week, leaving little of analytical interest, so this update will be brief. The overnight session saw a liquidation break early on, exploring prices below 7117 (DT2) before quickly fully retracing the drop. Overall, good reactions from our levels (see Figure 1).

Heading into the RTH session, buyers’ main objective was to build value above the Smashlevel at 7166, while sellers needed acceptance below 7117 (DT2) to potentially trigger a directional move from balance. Neither outcome materialized, confirming the responsive nature of the auction, with sellers active above value and buyers active below value, behavior that aligns with expectations in balanced market conditions.

The A-period offered a textbook Look Above And Fail setup from an order flow perspective (see Figure 2). A liquidation break unfolded during the afternoon session, eventually capped at the final downside target at 7092 (FDT). This marks the second time responsive buyers have stepped in within Thursday’s range from last week. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs have converged, located within this today’s range. The market is coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high volume nodes.

1. Excessive move above 7166 exhausts.
2. Aggressive sellers smash it.
3. Aggressive buyers absorbed and trapped on the 7166 retest.

Smashlevels Recap

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The market continues to digest last week’s notably one-sided auction through consolidation, now forming a 5-day balance area. The million-dollar question is whether upside continuation is in play after rejecting Thursday’s range from last week twice, or if this market needs a larger liquidation break to attract stronger buyers. Use levels to gauge where the auction wants to resolve next.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7172 (UT1), the multi-day value resistance, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7127 (DT1), the multi-day value support.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7151, the afternoon rally high. Holding below 7151 would target 7127 (DT1). Acceptance below 7127 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7092 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7062 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7151 would shift focus to 7172 (UT1). Acceptance above 7172 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7193 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7215 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7151.

• Break and hold above 7151 would target 7172 / 7193 / 7215

• Holding below 7151 would target 7127 / 7092 / 7062

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.42 and 18.20. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7215 with VIX below 18.20 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7062 with VIX above 20.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: the context remains unchanged after today’s session, with the market remaining in a short-term state of balance. In balanced market conditions, there is a tendency for poor structure to be resolved, in contrast to breakout conditions, where structural deficiencies can remain unresolved for prolonged periods. This made Tuesday’s single prints an area of interest, especially if sellers were unable to initiate a 3-day balance breakdown following Tuesday’s close at the lows. The auction held above the Smashlevel at 7117 overnight, and Tuesday’s breakdown single prints at 7147 (UT1) were pivotal both overnight (see Figure 1) and later during the RTH session.

The RTH session was characterized by two-sided activity around 7147 during the A-period, followed by an impulsive move higher in the B-period after 7147 held from above. The remainder of the session essentially consolidated within the Initial Balance range, except for the final 30 minutes during the M-period, when the auction probed higher. Note how today’s session filled the low volume structure from Tuesday’s session in the process. The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted higher once more, from 7137 to 7161. So far, buyers are doing a good job of accepting higher prices following last week’s notable one-sided auction. The fact that the auction has shown no interest in revisiting the poor structure from such a move is bullish until proven otherwise. As we’ve discussed, only acceptance back within Thursday’s range, below 7092, has the potential to “shift the tone” in the short term, and only then does the poor structure from last week become relevant.

Smashlevels Recap

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Last week’s initiating activity (imbalance) has transitioned into responsive two-sided trade this week (balance), now developing into a 4-day balance area. Value building at higher prices remains bullish until proven otherwise in the context of last week’s move.

Short-term focus is on the M-period closing spike: acceptance and value building above its spike base would signal continued strength, while rejection would keep the market in two-sided balance.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7166, the spike base. Holding above 7166 would target 7191 (UT1). Acceptance above 7191 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7217 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7233 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7166 would shift focus to 7146 (DT1). Acceptance below 7146 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7117 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7092 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7166.

• Holding above 7166 would target 7191 / 7217 / 7233

• Break and hold below 7166 would target 7146 / 7117 / 7092

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.02 and 17.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7233 with VIX below 17.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7092 with VIX above 20.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers managed to defend the Smashlevel at 7151 overnight after reclaiming it in yesterday’s after-hours session. Building acceptance above 7151, meaning within Friday’s value, increased the odds of traversing that value area toward UT1 at 7175, which was eventually achieved prior to the RTH open. Responsive sellers were active above 7175 (UT1).

The RTH session opened within Friday’s value area, and trading activity was confined within our key levels at 7175 and 7151 during the Initial Balance. A look below 7151 and fail provided a good opportunity during the A-period (see Figure 1). The second test of 7151 in the C-period failed to hold, along with the broader context of buyers failing to sustain an inside day breakout. As a general guideline, similar to balance behavior, a failed inside day breakout typically targets the opposite side of the range, which was achieved in the D-period with a test of 7121 (DT1).

There was significant aggressive selling near the 7121 level for several periods (see Figure 2). The trade location to initiate shorts was not favorable, given that this was, at the time, the balance low. During the afternoon session, sellers started to gain traction below 7121, and Friday’s true gap at 7089 was filled in the process. This was the final downside target (FDT), from which a reversal unfolded after-hours. The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted higher, from 7061 to 7137, a bullish indication in the context of last week’s historically one-sided auction.

Smashlevels Recap

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The auction has shifted into a state of short-term balance, which is not surprising given last week’s historically one-sided auction. Friday’s true gap at 7089 was filled in the process, where buyers were active.

While the session closed within the prior gap area, after-hours trading saw price return into Friday’s range. Buyers’ ability to hold that range is what I’m monitoring in the short term, with 7117 as the key level.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7147 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7092 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7117, Friday’s low. Holding below 7117 would target the HTF level at 7092 (DT1). Acceptance below 7092 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7062 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7043 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7117 would shift focus to the single prints at 7147 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7175 (FUT), Friday’s VAH, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7117.

• Break and hold above 7117 would target 7147 / 7175

• Holding below 7117 would target 7092 / 7062 / 7043

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.58 and 18.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7175 with VIX below 18.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7043 with VIX above 20.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Just like last week, the overnight session kicked off the week by gapping lower. We opened within Friday’s true gap area and immediately tested Thursday’s high, FDT at 7089 (ONL: 7085), where buyers stepped in. Keep in mind that a true gap is not considered filled unless it occurs during RTH. Two-sided activity developed within the gap area, so there wasn’t much to do other than monitor the gap extremes, as highlighted after the overnight open (see Figure 1). Either sellers would gain traction within Thursday’s range and potentially introduce short-term weakness, or buyers would reclaim Friday’s low (DT1 at 7121), leading to a return to Friday’s value. Buyers won this battle by reclaiming 7121, returning the auction to Friday’s value area ahead of the RTH open.

The RTH session was rather uneventful. Early attention was on the Smashlevel at 7151, around which the auction rotated (see Figure 2). Buyers attempted to establish acceptance above it during the Initial Balance, but this attempt was followed by a news-driven liquidation break in the C-period. The D-period moved down and tested DT1 at 7121 (LOD: 7121.50), where buyers were active, and the remainder of the session was lackluster. If you limited trade initiations to our levels of interest at 7151, 7121 (and 7089), you most likely avoided getting chopped up.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session formed an inside day after retracing the overnight weakness, where buyers stepped in at our final downside target at 7089 (FDT). Note how today’s session filled the highlighted fill section on the chart.

The auction is now in a 2-day balance, a bullish consolidation in the context of last week’s imbalance. As long as Friday’s gap remains intact, buyers remain in firm control, while a fill and rejection of that gap would be required to shift short-term structure.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7175 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7121 (DT1), potentially opening the door to fill Friday’s gap at 7089.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7151, Friday’s afternoon pullback low, aligning with Friday’s halfback, FS VWAP, and VAL. Holding below 7151 would target 7121 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7089 (FDT), the unfilled gap, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7151 would shift focus to Friday’s VAH at 7175 (UT1). Acceptance above 7175 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7195 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7233 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7151.

• Break and hold above 7151 would target 7175 / 7195 / 7233

• Holding below 7151 would target 7121 / 7089

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.94 and 17.80. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7233 with VIX below 17.80 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7089 with VIX above 19.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Last week’s historically one-sided auction concluded with another ATH printed on Friday, following a sustained true gap up. Similar to Tuesday’s session, little to no trade below the opening level created difficult conditions for sellers who initially defended the final upside target at 7135 (FUT). Once 7135 was breached, the squeeze continued, and for traders not in a position, it was not an ideal environment to chase. When markets are emotional, in either direction, there’s no shame in stepping back and letting others handle the price discovery. The VIX held its support level at 16.92, showing a notable divergence as ES continued to grind higher. The afternoon session then saw a liquidation break.

Smashlevels Recap

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So far, there has been no sign of this current phase of imbalance slowing down following another sustained true gap up on Friday. The afternoon pullback low at 7151, lining up with the halfback, FS VWAP, and the value area low (VAL), is the immediate reference point for gauging the auction.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7175 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7121 (DT1), potentially opening the door to fill Friday’s gap at 7089.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7151, aligning with Friday’s halfback, FS VWAP and VAL. Holding above 7151 would target Friday’s VAH at 7175 (UT1). Acceptance above 7175 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7195 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7233 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7151 would shift focus to technical fills of structure toward 7121 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7089 (FDT), the unfilled gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7151.

• Holding above 7151 would target 7175 / 7195 / 7233

• Break and hold below 7151 would target 7121 / 7089

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.48 and 16.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7233 with VIX below 16.48 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7089 with VIX above 18.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, the key focus was whether buyers could maintain upside momentum following the significant true gap higher on Wednesday, April 8. The objective for buyers was to continue building value within the prior multi-week balance area, setting the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs, where there was unfinished business, including an untested overnight ATH at 7043 and a lack of meaningful excess, reflected in a poor high on the daily chart.

I’m not sure how to recap last week other than saying it was a historically one-sided auction. The week began with immediate weakness, testing the large gap area between 6780 and 6659. As discussed, acceptance into the gap area had the potential to introduce weakness, while failure to do so would be bullish, as it would indicate that sellers attempted to shift the tone but failed, keeping the short-term upside trend intact following Wednesday’s true gap higher on April 8.

The highest-probability setups occur when counter-trend initiative fails to meaningfully shift the direction of the auction. In order flow terms, aggressive counter-trend participation is absorbed rather than accepted, signaling a lack of strength from opposing participants. This failure reinforces confidence in trend-aligned participants, often leading to continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend, driven by trapped participants and renewed initiative flow.

Monday’s closing strength was followed by a true gap higher on Tuesday, forming a P-shape and closing at the highs, 30 handles shy of the multi-week balance high and the all-time highs.

Wednesday also opened on a true gap up, but the gap was filled after a look above and fail of the overnight high (see Figure 1). A gap-fill reversal marked the low of the session. In the process, the prior multi-week balance area was fully traversed, the Weekly Extreme High was breached, and a new ATH printed, resolving the unfinished business at the prior ATH.

Thursday’s session saw another true gap up opening, and while the gap was also filled, aggressive sellers were unable to meaningfully shift the tone after being notably absorbed by passive buyers, resulting in a continuation higher (see Figure 2).

We closed out the week with another sustained true gap up on Friday, concluding one of the most one-sided weeks in quite some time. With buyers initiating a move away from the prior multi-week balance area, printing a new ATH, we now need to monitor for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). The prior ATH at 7031 is a critical area for buyers to defend.

Throughout the week, we discussed how the auction has moved significantly away from multiple value references, and that remains the case, making the risk-reward profile at the current location unfavorable for initiating new longs. Some corrective activity would be constructive, as it should provide better locations to monitor for reloading buyers. Stay nimble. An auction that shows no interest in filling poor structure is an extremely bullish one. As always, not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction; not trading is also a position.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7117
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 6826.50
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE → TBD

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following last week’s historically one-sided auction that resulted in a new ATH, or whether the market is due for technical fills of structure, a healthy correction. Friday’s afternoon pullback low at 7151 and the true gap at 7089 are two immediate reference points for gauging the auction.

A new ATH printed at 7185.75 after smashing through the prior ATH at 7031, which now serves as a critical area for buyers to defend to keep the breakout intact.

The most bullish response would involve building value above the prior multi-week balance area, signaling acceptance. This would favor upside continuation and continued price exploration in search of value, keeping the current imbalance phase intact.

Failure to do so, implying acceptance back into the prior balance area and the developing YTD value, would bring a failed breakout scenario in play, potentially opening the door to a return to value, in this case the 6880 HVN.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7151, Friday’s afternoon pullback low, aligning with Friday’s halfback, FS VWAP and VAL. Holding above 7151 would signal strength and target Friday’s 200% Initial balance extension at 7233, equivalent to SPX 7200. Acceptance above 7233 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7305 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7335, where selling activity can be expected. The quicker this resistance area is reached, the less favorable it becomes to initiate new longs, given the underlying structure.

Break and hold below 7151, implying a rejection of Friday’s value area, would set the stage to fill Friday’s true gap at 7089, aligning with the HTF Level at 7092. Acceptance below 7089 would target structural fills toward the support area between 7035 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7005, where buying activity can be expected. This area is a clear inflection point given its alignment with the prior RTH ATH at 7031, the developing YTD value area high, and last week’s VWAP. Failure to defend it would put last week’s breakout into question and open the door for a move back toward the high volume node at 6880.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7151.

• Holding above 7151 would target 7233 / 7305 / 7335* / 7375 / 7415

• Break and hold below 7151 would target 7089 / 7035 / 7005* / 6924 / 6880

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s closing strength carried into the overnight session, with price exploring uncharted territory. A new all-time high printed at 7078.50 before a pullback unfolded during the European session. The Smashlevel at 7062 attracted buying activity on two occasions ahead of the RTH open.

Similar to recent sessions, RTH opened on a true gap up, shifting immediate focus to whether the gap would be filled and, if so, whether sellers could gain traction within the prior day’s range. The gap was filled in the A-period, but unlike Wednesday’s session, the gap-fill reversal failed, giving sellers an opportunity to act. As discussed, sellers needed to break the 7043–7035 area, marking the prior ATH, to potentially introduce short-term weakness. Wednesday’s poor structure was partially filled before buyers stepped in at 7046.50.

While both the B- and C-periods held within the prior day’s range, with the Smashlevel at 7062 acting as a pivot, aggressive sellers were unable to push through the passive limit orders sitting above the 7043–7035 area. The resulting absorption fueled a continuation higher in the D-period once 7062 was breached (see Figure 1), a common outcome when counter-trend effort fails. The overnight ATH was cleaned up during this squeeze, printing a new ATH at 7089, just 3 handles shy of the HTF level at 7092, where a potential reversal could occur. Thanks for front-running it, guys! The Smashlevel at 7062 remained crucial for the rest of the session, capping the afternoon downside.

Be observant: The auction has moved significantly away from multiple value references, making it tricky to chase here. What makes this situation more complex is the fact that we have breached the prior ATH, making fades unfavorable until the auction at least fails to hold the 7043–7035 area.

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Nothing has changed contextually after today’s session, as buyers continue to remain in firm control of the auction and establishing value higher.

The daily remains in one-time framing up mode, forming higher highs and higher lows, a structure sellers must break to bring the daily back into short-term balance.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7092 (UT1), while a break and hold below 7043–35 (DT1) would end daily OTFU, potentially introducing short-term weakness or at least a more two-sided auction.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7062, the Monthly Extreme High. Holding above 7062 would target the HTF level at 7092 (UT1). Acceptance above 7092 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7115 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7135 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7062 would shift focus to technical fills of structure toward 7043-35 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7005 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7062.

• Holding above 7062 would target 7092 / 7115 / 7135

• Break and hold below 7062 would target 7043-35 / 7005

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.96 and 16.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7135 with VIX below 16.92 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7005 with VIX above 18.96 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The auction established a well-balanced profile during the overnight session, with the VPOC aligning with the Smashlevel at 7005. Buyers pushed higher pre-open, leading to another true gap open in RTH. The key takeaway is that a true gap, in either direction, signals a shift in tone relative to the prior session. It is then our job to assess whether that shift is accepted or rejected.

The A-period, referring to the first 30 minutes of RTH, offered strong trade opportunities. The first setup, a more advanced counter-trend play, involved fading a failure above the overnight high. This is a common fade when the ONH is tested immediately after a gap higher. Aggressive buyers were heavily absorbed, triggering a reversal (see Figure 1). The second setup was preferable, as it was trend-aligned with higher potential. This was the gap-fill reversal (the target of the initial fade setup), which closely aligned with the Smashlevel at 7005. Notably, both the overnight VPOC and the Mid aligned with 7005, adding confluence. Today’s LOD was 7004, from which the market rallied 60 handles to print a new ATH, cleaning up the unfinished business and completing Tuesday’s bullish imbalance in the process.

Be observant: The auction has moved significantly away from multiple value references, making it tricky to chase here. What makes this situation more complex is the fact that we have breached the prior ATH, making fades unfavorable until the auction at least fails to hold the 7043–7035 area. To put this into perspective: we are 200+ handles above short-term value (5D VPOC) and 400+ handles above medium-term value (20D VPOC). Additionally, we are trading 4% above the monthly VWAP, having breached both the Weekly Extreme High at 7035 and the Monthly Extreme High at 7062. On top of this, after reclaiming the multi-balance low at 6790, we’ve traversed the balance range and initiated an immediate breakout without any meaningful pullbacks. Typically, breakouts like this are harder to sustain, as the auction becomes exhausted prior to the breakout. No signs of weakness yet, but keep these data points in your narrative if you are planning to initiate any swing longs here.

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The relentless upside imbalance remains intact, with the market printing a new all-time high and cleaning up the prior overnight ATH at 7043 in the process.

The auction is starting to get a bit ahead of itself, but unless sellers can gain traction below 7043, in line with today’s J-period single prints, there’s no reason to fight this freight train.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7092 (UT1), while a break and hold below 7043–35 (DT1) has the potential to introduce short-term weakness, with the objective of cleaning up structural deficiencies.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7062, the Monthly Extreme High. Holding below 7062 would target technical fills of structure toward 7043-35 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7005 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7062 would shift focus to the HTF level at 7092 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7115 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7062.

• Break and hold above 7062 would target 7092 / 7115

• Holding below 7062 would target 7043-35 / 7005

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.38 and 16.96. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7115 with VIX below 16.96 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7005 with VIX above 19.38 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key heading into this week was to monitor whether buyers could continue to build value within the prior multi-week balance area after reclaiming the balance low at 6790 last week. This would open the door to a full traverse, targeting the opposite side of the range, a common outcome once acceptance is established within a prior balance (see Figure 1 on chart). Monday overnight, sellers attempted to gain traction below 6790 and failed, increasing confidence in a continuation higher. We are now 30 handles shy of the balance highs, which also mark the all-time highs. Keep in mind that if you have not participated on the long side from the 6790 area, approaching the all-time highs is not a location to initiate new longs, as the top of the balance area is considered resistance until proven otherwise.

Today’s session didn’t leave much to analyze, as it was fairly straightforward. Buyers reclaimed 6927 overnight, signaling intraday strength, and after a pullback to 6928 during the European session, the auction never looked back. The RTH session opened on a true gap higher, with little to no trade below the opening level. UT2 at 6960 was tagged in the A-period, briefly stalling upside momentum before continuation unfolded in the B-period. The final upside target at 6981 was tagged and exceeded in the D-period, while the VIX notably held above its support level at 17.82, making it tricky to chase further upside. Overall, the session offered little opportunity for RTH traders. The only potential setup was the afternoon pullback in the J and K-period, but that would have meant entering above FUT, which is generally an unfavorable trade location.

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After reclaiming the prior multi-week balance low at 6790 last week and defending it early this week, we are now approaching the balance highs (ATH), which act as a target area according to balance guidelines. The RTH ATH is at 7031, while we also have an untested overnight ATH at 7043 as unfinished business.

The session formed a P-shape (bullish imbalance) after a sustained true gap higher, with single prints in the B and D periods. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7043 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6985 (DT1), today’s afternoon pullback low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7005, the spike base. Holding above 7005 signals strength and targets the cluster of levels at 7031, 7035, and 7043 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7070 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7005 would shift focus to the afternoon pullback low at 6985 (DT1). Acceptance below 6985 would signal intraday weakness and target 6961 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6924 (FDT), unfilled gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7005.

• Holding above 7005 would target 7031-43 / 7070

• Break and hold below 7005 would target 6985 / 6961 / 6924

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.48 and 17.24. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7070 with VIX below 17.24 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6924 with VIX above 19.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened with a gap lower, which was to be expected given the headlines over the weekend. We opened below the crucial 6790 level, which marks the prior multi-week balance area low and closely aligns with the top of last week’s notable gap. Sellers initially defended 6790, creating the potential for a bearish development. During news events, the key is to observe how the market reacts, which is why we consistently gauge the strength or weakness of the auction in relation to our levels. Opinions are irrelevant.

What should have happened overnight? We opened with a gap below three days’ worth of inventory, with last week’s notable gap sitting below. The expected behavior would have been sustained weakness; however, buyers quickly reclaimed 6790. This was immediate information that we are not dealing with stronger sellers, as they would not have allowed that. As noted: “If price explores into the gap area, 6790 becomes a key level to monitor for reclaims or lack thereof.” The lack of sustained weakness led to a pre-open test of 6830 (DT1), where seller stepped in. Remember, holding below 6830 would have been bearish intraday, as it would have placed the market back within Thursday’s lower distribution.

The RTH session opened on a true gap down within Thursday’s single prints area, and 6830 was tested immediately, finding responsive buyers. The key question was whether buyers could regain acceptance within Friday’s range and reclaim the Smashlevel at 6848, or whether sellers would reject that. Buyers filled the gap as value began to build within Friday’s range, another sign of weak sellers, effectively invalidating any short bias. The continued failure from sellers opened the door for a revisit of the HVN at 6880 (UT1), and that was exactly what happened. Typically, a failure to sustain a true gap targets a traverse of the prior day’s range. During the afternoon session, 6880 was reclaimed, value was building above it, and the expected behavior of upside continuation unfolded. In the process, the auction came a few ticks shy of tagging our final upside target at 6927 (FUT), marking the 2026 opening price. Note that buyers managed to end the monthly one-time framing down after breaking last month’s high at 6911.

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Upon price exploration into last week’s gap area, 6790 was the key level to monitor, as sellers needed to hold below it to potentially shift the tone. The failure to build value and acceptance below it overnight led to a notable counter-move in the direction of the prevailing short-term trend.

The market has returned to the yearly opening price following closing strength, forming a notable spike that is now of short-term interest. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6927 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6880 (DT1), returning into last week’s range. PPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6900, the spike base. Holding above 6900 signals stability and targets the 2026 opening price at 6927 (UT1). Acceptance above 6927 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6960 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6981 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6900 would shift focus to the HVN at 6880 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6856 (FDT), the 5D VPOC, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6900.

• Holding above 6900 would target 6927 / 6960 / 6981

• Break and hold below 6900 would target 6880 / 6856

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.44 and 17.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6981 with VIX below 17.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6856 with VIX above 20.44 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.