— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

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Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

In contrast to Monday and Tuesday, we saw some volatility today. Overnight, buyers initially defended 7848 (DT1) before reclaiming 7866 (Smashlevel) ahead of the release. However, the tone shifted significantly after CPI, with sellers taking control and setting the stage for the RTH session to open with a true gap down.

When the auction opens with a true gap in either direction, it signals a shift in tone relative to the prior session. Our job is then to assess whether that shift will be accepted or rejected. Buyers initially defended the opening level, allowing the auction to fill today’s gap at 7834.50, where sellers stepped in. This classic gap-fill reversal provided an early clue of weakness, as the potential shift in tone remained intact. Subsequently, sellers broke below the overnight low, providing a second clue of weakness.

The final downside target at 7807 (FDT) was already tagged in the B-period. At the time, the VIX was still holding below its resistance at 15.94. However, value was building below 7807, negating the potential for a reversal. A quick LBAF at 7807 would have been a different story. The Initial Balance was then extended to the downside in the C-period, with the VIX breaking above its resistance later in the session, which typically signals the potential for continued weakness.

The true gap at 7741.25 was filled almost to the tick in the J-period, marking the session low in confluence with the MA50 (see Figure 1). If you have reviewed the Weekly Plan, you know that weekly support lies between 7740 and 7710, meaning we are now at a critical area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold this area would open the door to a rotation down to the multi-week balance low, following the failed breakout.

Session Recap

The market was coiling for a directional move, and today’s CPI release ultimately served as a catalyst for a move lower. The auction has now rotated back toward the high volume node at 7770, making the behavior around this HVN key to monitor in the short term.

On the upside, buyers need to reclaim two key levels: last week’s low at 7778 and last week’s VAL at 7807, which aligns with the Monthly VWAP. Failure to reclaim these levels would maintain downside pressure. PPI on deck tomorrow.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7778.

• Break and hold above 7778 would target 7807 / 7824

• Holding below 7778 would target 7745 / 7710

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.64 and 16.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7824 with VIX below 16.10 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7710 with VIX above 17.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Given today’s uneventful session and the unchanged context, there’s no need for an extensive analysis. Buyers remain unable to reclaim last week’s VAH at 7866 (UT1), while sellers have struggled to gain meaningful traction below the prior ATH at 7848, keeping the auction in short-term balance. The last three sessions have closed within a couple of handles of one another, highlighting the lack of directional conviction.

Session Recap

Trading activity during Monday’s and today’s sessions remained contained within Friday’s range, suggesting the auction is coiling for a directional move, with tomorrow’s CPI release potentially serving as a catalyst. A meaningful shift in tone would require acceptance outside last week’s value area.

Reclaiming last week’s VAH at 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915

• Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.94 and 14.60. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.60 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: Despite the lack of directional movement, great trading opportunities emerged around our key levels of interest. Buyers reclaimed 7866 (Smashlevel) immediately overnight, triggering a traverse of Tuesday’s value area toward 7887 (UT1), where sellers stepped in to the tick. The overnight strength was retraced ahead of the RTH session, with the auction returning to 7866.

Failure to reclaim 7866 early in RTH put sellers in control during the Initial Balance. However, the downside move stalled in the 7855s, where passive buyers absorbed aggressive selling. This resulted in a poor low forming across the B and C periods. With sellers failing to make further progress, they were quickly put under pressure as aggressive buyers stepped in during the D and E periods, triggering a solid bounce.

The Smashlevel at 7866 was then revisited, producing a strong rejection in confluence with the FS VWAP (see Figure 1). Aggressive buyers were absorbed before sellers stepped back in. The poor low was cleaned up during the afternoon session, with the auction testing 7848 (DT1), where a closing bounce unfolded. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 7824 to 7855.

Session Recap

The context remains unchanged following today’s rather uneventful inside day. The auction remained contained between our two key levels: 7866, last week’s VAH, and 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high. Both remain key references to monitor in the short term.

Reclaiming 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915

• Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.98 and 14.44. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.44 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.98 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into Friday’s session, the auction was in a short-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The key question was whether stronger buyers would step in following the cleanup of Monday’s structure or whether sellers could sustain downside pressure. Buyers reclaimed 7822 (Smashlevel) overnight and, after several attempts, regained 7848 (UT1) during RTH, ultimately breaking the pattern of lower highs on the daily timeframe and ending the week on a stronger note.

Session Recap

Friday’s session broke the pattern of lower highs on the daily timeframe, suggesting that stronger sellers remain absent from the tape. However, the auction remains in short-term balance, consolidating near the ATHs.

In the short term, two levels have my attention: last week’s VAH at 7866 and 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high.

Reclaiming 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915

• Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.58 and 14.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.12 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with strength on Monday, with buyers defending the intraday Smashlevel at 7764 overnight before initiating buying emerged above the Weekly Smashlevel at 7783 during RTH (see Figure 1). Reclaiming 7783 was short-term bullish, opening the door to a retest of the ATH at 7848, as outlined in last week’s plan.

The reclaim provided a beautiful continuation setup, with value building above the level and a trap forming below before the auction continued higher. Notable buying was also visible on the tape pre-open (see Figure 2).

Monday’s directional move away from value was followed by a true gap higher on Tuesday, with the auction printing a new ATH at 7897.50 in the process. The key reference for the remainder of the week was the prior ATH at 7848, which aligned with Tuesday’s true gap.

Wednesday’s session was quite interesting, opening with a true gap down that put an island reversal pattern in play for sellers, with Tuesday’s session forming the island. However, sellers were ultimately unable to take advantage of this pattern, as the session closed back above the prior ATH at 7848 (see Figure 3). Stronger sellers would have been expected to keep the auction below this level.

On Thursday, buyers were unable to defend 7848, which ultimately led to Monday’s poor structure being cleaned up and a test of the Weekly Smashlevel at 7783, where responsive buyers once again stepped in.

Heading into Friday’s session, the auction was in a short-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The key question was whether stronger buyers would step in following the cleanup of Monday’s structure or whether sellers could sustain downside pressure. Buyers reclaimed the intraday Smashlevel at 7822 overnight and, after several attempts, regained 7848 during RTH, ultimately breaking the pattern of lower highs on the daily timeframe and ending the week on a stronger note (see Figure 4).

Looking at the weekly levels, buyers defended the key 7783 level both early in the week and on Thursday, ultimately building value cleanly higher for the week. While buyers struggled to gain meaningful traction above the prior ATH at 7848, stronger sellers failed to step in on the tape.

How the market behaves around 7848 will be key moving forward, as it should provide clues as to whether the auction is ready for another phase of imbalance or will continue building value within the current range. Remember, we’ve been trading within a multi-week balance, meaning a successful breakout could travel a considerable distance, while a failed breakout could trigger a rotation across the range.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 5-Day | High: 7897.50 / Low: 7778.25
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends at: 7778.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7575

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can initiate and sustain a breakout from the multi-week balance area and take advantage of a tape that currently lacks stronger sellers. Early-week value development relative to the prior ATH at 7848 will be key to monitor.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high. Failure to hold this area would be a short-term bearish development, opening the door to a retest of last week’s VAL at 7807, which aligns with Thursday’s NVPOC.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the current ATH at 7897. Failure to do so would open the door to price exploration into uncharted territory, marking a phase of imbalance as the auction searches for value.

The weekly Smashlevel is at 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high. Holding above 7848 would be short-term bullish, targeting the current ATH at 7897. Acceptance above 7897 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7980 and the Weekly Extreme High at 8010, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area coincides with the 50% range extension from the multi-week balance, a common target for profit-taking following a successful breakout. Additionally, the Monthly Extreme High at 8010 adds another layer of significance to this area.

Break and hold below 7848 would be short-term bearish, targeting a rotation through last week’s value area toward its VAL at 7807, which aligns with Thursday’s NVPOC. Acceptance below 7807 would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward the support area between 7740 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7710, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the halfback of the multi-week balance, a common target for profit-taking following a failed breakout, as well as the unfilled bull gap at 7741. This is a crucial area for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would open the door to a full traverse toward the balance low.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7848.

• Holding above 7848 would target 7897 / 7980 / 8010* / 8040 / 8075

• Break and hold below 7848 would target 7807 / 7740 / 7710* / 7648 / 7589

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was characterized by weakness after failing to defend the Smashlevel at 7848, leading to a rotation lower toward the next level of interest at 7811 (DT1), where a change took place on Monday’s session. A beautiful Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup played out at 7811, triggering a solid reversal. As one follower pointed out, the safer approach was to wait for a reclaim of Wednesday’s low at 7815 before joining the reversal. This sequence also aligned well with VIX dropping below its resistance level at 15.76.

The RTH session opened within Wednesday’s lower distribution and rotated higher toward the key 7848 level. Sellers stepped in aggressively a couple of handles below 7848 during the C-period, quickly erasing the opening gains. The downside momentum slowed significantly during the D and E-periods before a headline-driven bounce triggered an upside spike in the F-period (see Figure 1). The move was sold right at 7848 (Smashlevel), which ultimately marked the RTH high, triggering a notable increase in downside pressure.

As a result, the final downside target at 7791 (FDT) was tagged during the H-period, completing the cleanup of Monday’s poor structure. As I’ve reiterated many times, chasing new short positions near FDT levels is always tricky, and today’s afternoon session provided a good example of why.

Session Recap

After immediately negating Tuesday’s true gap higher, during which a new ATH was printed, the auction has shifted into a short-term downtrend, developing value lower.

The key question now, after cleaning up Monday’s poor structure, is whether stronger buyers will step in or if the Look Above the ATH and Fail will lead to further downside pressure.

The extremes of today’s profiles are important, with the upper extreme marked by 7848, a key level buyers need to reclaim, while the lower extreme represents last week’s VAH, a key reference where sellers aim to build acceptance below.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7822.

• Break and hold above 7822 would target 7848 / 7866 / 7887

• Holding below 7822 would target 7802 / 7783 / 7764

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.12 and 14.72. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7887 with VIX below 14.72 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7764 with VIX above 16.12 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was rather weak, with the auction rotating lower to test the Smashlevel at 7866, where responsive buyers initially stepped in. However, the bounce was short-lived, with sellers quickly regaining control and breaking below the level shortly after. Failing to defend 7866 was the first clue of weakness, while the second was breaking and holding below the critical 7847 (DT1) level, which marked both Tuesday’s gap and the prior ATH. The key for buyers was to reclaim 7847 in RTH, as acceptance back within Monday’s range would have been a bearish development.

The RTH session opened within Monday’s range, creating a true gap down. This also put a potential island reversal pattern in play, with Tuesday’s session forming the island. The VIX was holding above its resistance level at 15.72, another data point in favor of sellers. Contextually, sellers had everything in their hands to cause damage, which they did with the initial move lower in the A-period, taking control of both the opening level and the overnight low.

However, after the initial weakness, downside momentum notably stalled around Monday’s VPOC, where two-sided trade took place. This was a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, meaning the expected behavior was a continuation lower. The C-period attempted to do so, extending the Initial Balance to the downside. However, this attempt ultimately failed after coming a few handles shy of the final downside target at 7811 (FDT), from which a reversal unfolded. The return within the Initial Balance, effectively negating the intraday balance breakdown, combined with VIX slowly dropping back below its resistance, was a clear clue to be cautious about pressing shorts. Following this, the tone shifted, and the session ultimately closed within Monday’s gap area, something stronger sellers should not have allowed.

Session Recap

Tuesday’s true gap higher, followed by today’s gap lower, left sellers with an island reversal pattern to work with, an opportunity they ultimately failed to fully take advantage of, judging by how the session played out.

With the session closing within Monday’s gap area, the key in the short term is to monitor whether sellers can break 7848 and build value below, which would be a bearish development, or whether buyers can reclaim 7866 and gain traction within Tuesday’s range, confirming that sellers remain weak.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7848.

• Holding above 7848 would target 7866 / 7887 / 7915

• Break and hold below 7848 would target 7811 / 7791

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.76 and 14.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7791 with VIX above 15.76 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers initially defended the Smashlevel at 7838 overnight; however, they were unable to gain meaningful downside traction. This was a level buyers needed to reclaim to maintain continuation higher, which they ultimately achieved heading into the European session. Once reclaimed, 7838 was defended, triggering a notable continuation higher. The initial upside target at 7855 (UT1) was reclaimed and defended in the process ahead of the RTH session.

The overnight strength carried into RTH, with the session opening on a true gap higher. With overnight inventory 100% net long, the expectation was for a counter-auction (pullback), after the open. Failure to see one is typically a sign of a very strong auction. Two key references when gapping higher are the opening level and the overnight high, both of which buyers immediately took control of. Note how aggressive sellers got absorbed at the opening level, and also note how the pullback to the overnight high in the B-period offered a great opportunity to join the move (see Figure 1). The chart also shows notable selling exhaustion, which is always of interest in a strong uptrend, as late shorts became trapped when the auction failed to move lower.

The final upside target at 7895 (FUT) was tagged in the D-period. Regardless of the context, it’s always unfavorable to chase new positions near these levels, especially with VIX remaining above its support level. The 7895 level ultimately capped the upside, triggering a rotation lower. There was a notable delta divergence at 7895, opening the door for a reversal (see Figure 2). However, this is a more advanced setup given that it’s counter-trend.

Session Recap

Monday’s directional move away from value was followed by a true gap higher today, which remained unfilled. The auction is in a state of imbalance across all timeframes, searching for new value. Apply your playbook accordingly.

Buyers are not in any meaningful trouble unless today’s gap at 7847.50, which aligns with the weekly VWAP and last week’s high, is negated.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7887 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7847 (DT1).

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Holding above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915 / 7943-50

• Break and hold below 7866 would target 7847 / 7811

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.72 and 14.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7950 with VIX below 14.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7811 with VIX above 15.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers attempted to reclaim 7783 (UT1) early overnight, which immediately got me long. The 7783 level was Friday’s afternoon rally high, aligning with last week’s VAH and serving as an important reference covered in the Weekly Plan. While 7783 was initially defended, the upside pace ultimately lacked follow-through, so I ended up scratching the trade. The failure to hold 7783 resulted in a rotation lower toward the Smashlevel at 7764, which ultimately proved to be a massive level that capped today’s downside.

Buyers quickly reclaimed 7783 after the RTH open and began building value above it. Notable buying on the tape was also observed pre-open. For me, acceptance is determined by how the auction behaves around a level of interest rather than by any specific timeframe. Traders found agreement above 7783, while a move back below was quickly rejected, creating an excellent trap (see Figure 1). This ended up being a great continuation setup that cleared all upside targets, ultimately reaching 7838 (FUT) and coming just a couple of ticks shy of the ATH at 7848, where traders booked profits and a closing liquidation break unfolded.

Session Recap

Finding acceptance above last week’s VAH at 7783 opened the door to a revisit of 7848, a scenario that ultimately played out today following a trend day.

Looking at the composite volume profile, we can see the auction establishing a directional move away from value, defined by the HVN around 7775. The key now is to monitor whether this move attracts continued participation.

A strong continuation higher would require a reclaim of 7838, while 7811 and 7791 are both levels of interest to monitor on pullbacks. Failure to attract continued participation would shift focus back toward the HVN at 7775.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7838.

• Break and hold above 7838 would target 7855 / 7876 / 7895

• Holding below 7838 would target 7811 / 7791 / 7764

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.26 and 14.78. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7895 with VIX below 14.78 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7764 with VIX above 16.26 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session saw a true gap higher after successfully reclaiming Wednesday’s spike base at 7747 overnight. The final upside target at 7794 (FUT) was tagged pre-open, a level above which buyers struggled to gain traction during the RTH session. The C-period saw a Look Above and Fail of the Initial Balance range, followed by weakness in the D-period. After the liquidation break, the auction was marked by two-sided trade, essentially filling the poor NFP structure from the overnight session.

Session Recap

Friday’s true gap higher remained unfilled; however, the session lacked directional conviction and ultimately closed below its opening print.

In the short term, I’m focused on two levels: Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7783, which aligns with last week’s VAH, and the base of Friday’s excess low at 7764.

Reclaiming 7783 would be a short-term bullish development and open the door to a revisit of Friday’s high, while failure to defend 7764 would open the door to filling Friday’s gap at 7741.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7764.

• Holding above 7764 would target 7783 / 7809 / 7838

• Break and hold below 7764 would target 7741 / 7709

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.04 and 14.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.58 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7709 with VIX above 16.04 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, with sellers breaking below the key 7772 level (see Figure 1). Failure to defend 7772 was short-term bearish, opening the door to filling the bull gap at 7718, as outlined in last week’s plan.

The bull gap at 7718 was filled on Tuesday, where responsive buyers stepped in during both the overnight and RTH sessions (see Figure 2). As the auction was approaching 7718 overnight, we could observe notable order flow activity before the reversal (see Figure 3).

Both the 7772 and 7718 levels continued to be important on Wednesday, with downside being capped by 7718 overnight, followed by upside being capped by 7772 during the RTH session (see Figure 4).

The auction formed a downward spike in the M-period after a notable liquidation break, creating a disconnect between price and value. The key heading into Thursday was to monitor whether sellers were able to build value within the spike area or whether failure to do so would trigger a reclaim of the spike base at 7747.

On Thursday, the auction was working through the fills of the poor structure created by the liquidation break early overnight (see Figure 5). However, buyers were ultimately unable to find acceptance above 7747, leading to continued weakness during RTH. The auction came a few handles shy of the weekly support area between 7670 and 7640, tagging the MA50 before reversing higher and closing back within Wednesday’s spike area (see Figure 6).

Wednesday’s spike area between 7747 and 7709 remained the key area of focus heading into Friday’s session. Reclaiming 7747 would signal strength, while a break below 7709 would maintain downside pressure. Buyers reclaimed 7747 overnight and successfully built value above it. This was followed by upside continuation post-NFP, clearing all upside targets toward 7794 (FUT) (see Figure 7).

While the RTH session opened with a true gap higher that remained unfilled, the session itself lacked directional conviction, forming an afternoon rally high at 7783, which serves as an immediate reference for gauging the state of the auction early next week.

Looking at the weekly levels, the upside was capped by 7772 early in the week, triggering some weakness, but ultimately sellers were unable to find acceptance below 7718, leading to a reversal.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 5-Day | High: 7810.25 / Low: 7672.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 8-Week | High: 7848.50 / Low: 7575
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7575

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the upside momentum after holding the MA50 on Thursday and following through with Friday’s true gap higher.

Although the gap at 7741 remained unfilled, Friday’s price action lacked meaningful directional conviction, with the session ultimately closing below its opening print.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7783, which closely aligns with last week’s VAH (7782). Failure to defend this area would set the stage for a revisit of the multi-week balance high at 7848, while SPX and SPY challenge their respective ATHs.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend Friday’s true gap at 7741, which closely aligns with last week’s VWAP (7745). Failure to defend this area would be short-term bearish and open the door to revisit the HVN at 7690.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7783, Friday’s afternoon rally high, aligning closely with last week’s VAH. Break and hold above 7783 would be short-term bullish, targeting the prior and current ATHs at 7838 and 7848. Acceptance above 7848 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7920 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7950, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area coincides with SPX 7900, where upside momentum could potentially stall as the auction moves into uncharted territory. Keep in mind that while ES printed a new ATH at 7848 two weeks ago on the continuous contract, SPX (7,816.70) and SPY (779.37) have yet to do the same.

Holding below 7783 would be short-term bearish and target the unfilled bull gap at 7741. Acceptance below 7741 would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward 7690, as well as the support area between 7650 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7620, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the prior multi-week balance high, which also serves as a composite low volume node (LVN), making it a crucial area to defend. Failure to do so would once again open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7783.

• Break and hold above 7783 would target 7838-48 / 7920 / 7950* / 8000 / 8040

• Holding below 7783 would target 7741 / 7690 / 7650 / 7620* / 7598

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

During the overnight session, the auction immediately began retracing Wednesday’s downward spike after opening above 7718 (Smashlevel) and successfully defending the level (see Figure 1). Sellers stepped in a few ticks shy of the spike base at 7747 (UT1); however, buyers managed to establish a higher low, leading to a notable continuation higher. The Euro session fully retraced the early overnight gains following a sharp liquidation break, but the theme of sellers failing to gain traction below 7718 continued ahead of the RTH session.

The RTH session opened within the spike area, and sellers won the A-period by preventing buyers from reclaiming 7747 while breaking below 7718. This completed Tuesday’s bearish imbalance, tagging the high volume node at 7687 (DT2) in the process. Acceptance below 7687 would signal intraday weakness, which sellers ultimately failed to achieve despite heavy effort. Not a single 30-minute close below 7687 today, despite six different periods trading below it, which was notable. The afternoon session punished this failed selling effort, and the market returned to Wednesday’s spike area, where we ultimately closed.

Session Recap

Price exploration below Wednesday’s range and the MA50 found responsive buyers today, ultimately resulting in a close back within the spike area. I’ll continue to use this spike area to gauge the state of the auction.

Looking at the short-term composite profile on the far right, three distributions stand out. The lower distribution comes from today’s morning session. The middle distribution is where value was built on Tuesday and during today’s afternoon session. The upper distribution is where value was established on Monday and Wednesday.

A return into the upper distribution by reclaiming 7747 would be a sign of strength, while a return into the lower distribution, with 7709 being the key level to break, would maintain downside pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7709.

• Holding above 7709 would target 7747 / 7772 / 7794

• Break and hold below 7709 would target 7687 / 7669

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.16 and 15.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7794 with VIX below 15.62 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7669 with VIX above 17.16 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

During the overnight session, buyers attempted to gain meaningful traction above 7747 (Smashlevel), which they ultimately struggled to do. The auction revisited both 7718 (DT1) and 7772 (UT1) overnight, with both levels finding an opposite response, meaning a reaction against the direction of the initial move into the level (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened above 7747, making that level of immediate interest for buyers to defend, which, as discussed, would be a short-term bullish development. Why? Because doing so would reject Tuesday’s value and break the pattern of developing lower value that has been in play this week. Buyers defended 7747 (7748) during the A-period, resulting in a move toward 7772 (UT1). So far, the market has remained contained between 7718 and 7772 this week, two levels also highlighted in the Weekly Plan.

After tagging 7772, the upside momentum notably stalled, and the auction saw two-sided trade for most of the session. When the auction returns to an area of prior value, such as the HVN at 7772, it’s not uncommon to see this type of behavior. Buyers and sellers have previously found agreement around this price, so revisiting the area can naturally lead to renewed two-sided trade rather than immediate continuation.

The tone changed during the last 30 minutes of RTH, referred to as the M-period, as we saw a closing liquidation break. The key question now is whether value will follow price or if the auction will rotate back toward established value. Tomorrow’s value development will therefore be important to monitor, particularly in relation to today’s highlighted spike area.

Session Recap

After building value above Tuesday’s value area, the auction closed with a downward spike in the M-period, creating a disconnect between price and value. Tuesday’s poor low was cleaned up in the process.

Contextually, not much has changed. Continued value development within Tuesday’s range and acceptance of the lower prices created by today’s spike would be a bearish development. A very weak market will accept below the key 7718 level, aligning with the Monthly VWAP.

Negating the closing weakness by reclaiming today’s spike base at 7747, which also aligns with the current weekly VWAP, would signal short-term strength.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7718.

• Break and hold above 7718 would target 7747 / 7772

• Holding below 7718 would target 7687 / 7669 / 7640

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.14 and 15.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7772 with VIX below 15.54 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7640 with VIX above 17.14 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session delivered solid trading opportunities, kicking off with responsive sellers stepping in at 7752 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1). Buyers’ failure to reclaim 7752 maintained downside pressure, resulting in a rotation toward the next level of interest at 7718 (DT1), last week’s unfilled gap.

As previously discussed, as long as acceptance is not established below 7718, effectively negating the gap, buyers are not in any trouble. The 7718 level delivered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF), triggering a rotation back to 7752 and ultimately coming a few ticks shy of tagging 7771 (UT1) (see Figure 2).

Buyers were unable to hold above 7752 early in the RTH session, once again introducing weakness. Building value within Thursday’s Initial Balance was a short-term bearish development, so it was no surprise to see the auction eventually fill last week’s gap at 7718 after extending the Initial Balance to the downside. The gap is now officially filled after being tested a couple of times during the overnight sessions.

The downside momentum notably stalled after filling the gap. The market formed a poor low, from which a closing squeeze unfolded during the closing periods. The poor low can be a clue of weak sellers, as stronger sellers should have been able to gain traction below a crucial level such as 7718. However, sellers remain in control of the auction in the short term, and buyers’ main objective is to shift value higher rather than allow the continued development of overlapping lower value on the daily timeframe.

Session Recap

Last week’s gap higher and subsequent trend day left behind poor structure, which the market has been cleaning up since then, ultimately completing the gap fill today at 7718. The easy work for sellers is done. To push the auction lower from here, stronger sellers need to step in, and today’s poor low suggests they have yet to emerge.

Today’s session closed between the weekly VWAP at 7743 and the monthly VWAP at 7714. Reclaiming 7743 and today’s excess base at 7747 would be a short-term bullish development, while acceptance below 7714 and the filled gap at 7718 would maintain downside pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7747.

• Break and hold above 7747 would target 7772 / 7794 / 7811

• Holding below 7747 would target 7718 / 7687 / 7669

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.86 and 15.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7811 with VIX below 15.22 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7669 with VIX above 16.86 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was marked by weakness following a breakdown from the short-term distribution of interest between 7811 (UT1) and 7794 (Smashlevel). Failure by buyers to defend 7794 led to a rotation lower toward the HVN at 7772 (DT1), where the auction stalled ahead of the RTH session.

Buyers struggled to gain traction above 7772 early in RTH, setting the stage for continued intraday weakness. The VIX remained above its resistance level at 15.56 throughout the session, contributing to downside pressure.

Change took place in the C-period, as sellers extended the rather narrow Initial Balance to the downside. In the process, our final downside target at 7738 (FDT) was tagged. Price looked below 7738 and failed, triggering a move higher. While the reversal was driven by news headlines, the structure was textbook Look Below and Fail (LBAF), with price swiftly taking out a key level before quickly reclaiming it and building value/acceptance back above it (see Session Recap).

The market spiked above 7772 (DT1) twice following headlines, with responsive sellers stepping in on both occasions. This ultimately led to a revisit of 7738 in the M-period, with the session closing within Thursday’s Initial Balance.

Session Recap

Today’s session showed no interest in trading within Friday’s value area or above last week’s VPOC at 7772, a short-term bearish development that ultimately led to expected weakness. The auction is now back within Thursday’s Initial Balance.

Friday’s low at 7752 is a key reference for gauging the short-term state of the auction. Buyers need to reclaim this level to avoid acceptance into the lower part of Thursday’s range. Failure to do so would maintain downside pressure, targeting Monday’s bull gap at 7718,another crucial reference.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7752.

• Break and hold above 7752 would target 7772 / 7794 / 7811

• Holding below 7752 would target 7718 / 7687

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.82 and 15.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7811 with VIX below 15.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7687 with VIX above 16.82 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

On Friday, it was all about whether buyers could remain within Wednesday’s range by holding above 7758 (Smashlevel). The 7758 level played a pivotal role during both the overnight and RTH sessions, delivering great trading opportunities (see Session Recap).

The closing period, referring to the M-period, delivered a great reversal sequence from an order flow perspective (see Figure 1). Notable aggressive selling failed to push price lower as passive buyers absorbed the selling pressure, ultimately resulting in a closing squeeze. The entry bar is not the reversal bar itself, but the following bar, as the idea is to join the move once aggressive buyers step in following the absorption.

Session Recap

The daily has formed a 5-day balance above last Monday’s gap area, which remains only partially filled following Thursday’s weakness. While this multi-day balance remains key this week, our short-term focus will be on Friday’s auction.

Looking at Friday’s profile, a small balance developed between 7794 and 7811, with 7794 aligning with Friday’s IB high and the Weekly VWAP. This distribution is now a key area of short-term interest.

A breakout targets the HVN above at 7838, where value was established on Monday and Tuesday, while a breakdown targets 7772, where value was established on Wednesday and Thursday.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7794.

• Holding above 7794 would target 7811 / 7838 / 7855

• Break and hold below 7794 would target 7772 / 7738

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.56 and 14.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7855 with VIX below 14.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7738 with VIX above 15.56 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with notable strength, as Monday opened with a sizable true gap higher after a strong overnight session. Buyers defended 7715 early overnight, which was a sign of strength (see Figure 1), and from that point, the auction basically never looked back. The RTH session then saw a vicious continuation higher after holding the key 7757 level, followed by notable aggressive buyers stepping in (see Figure 2).

Failure by sellers to defend 7757 was short-term bullish, opening the door to a revisit of the all-time highs, as outlined in last week’s plan.

Monday’s session printed a new all-time high, reaching the weekly resistance area between 7855 and 7825 in the process. Keep in mind that while ES printed a new ATH on the continuous contract, SPX (7,816.70) and SPY (779.37) have yet to do the same.

Heading into Tuesday’s session, we discussed the potential complexity of reaching the Weekly Extreme High as early as Monday and how this could make the rest of the week tricky to trade.

It’s not uncommon for price action to become uneventful after a move like Monday’s, which can be frustrating for traders who were not part of it. Tuesday was exactly that, extremely uneventful. A new ATH was printed at 7848.50, a couple of ticks above Monday’s high, making it a weak high. This was a sign of potential short-term exhaustion, suggesting that stronger buyers would be found lower, as discussed in Wednesday’s plan.

On Wednesday, long liquidation took place. Weakness already started overnight after buyers failed to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838 (see Figure 3).

Note how aggressive buyers were absorbed by passive sellers just before that overnight flush (see Figure 4 and Figure 5).

Wednesday’s RTH session fully cleaned up Monday’s poor structure, forming a b-shaped profile indicative of long liquidation (see Figure 6). The key question was whether sellers could follow through, or if stronger buyers would step in.

Thursday’s session was highly interesting, as it opened with a true gap down following a weak overnight session. However, despite the overnight and early RTH weakness, the session closed back within Wednesday’s range, only partially filling Monday’s gap at 7718.75. The reversal was driven by news headlines.

On Friday, it was all about whether buyers could remain within Wednesday’s range by holding above 7758, the Smashlevel in Friday’s plan. The 7758 level played a pivotal role during both the overnight and RTH sessions, delivering great trading opportunities (see Figure 7).

The closing period, referring to the M-period, delivered a great reversal sequence from an orderflow perspective (see Figure 8). Notable aggressive selling failed to push price lower as passive buyers absorbed the selling pressure, ultimately resulting in a closing squeeze. The entry bar is not the reversal bar itself, but the following bar, as the idea is to join the move once aggressive buyers step in following the absorption.

Figure 8

Looking at the weekly levels, the upside was capped by the weekly resistance area, while the auction held above 7757 for most of the week, with the exception of Thursday’s early weakness, ultimately signaling strength.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 5-Day | High: 7848.50 / Low: 7725.25
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 7-Week | High: 7848.50 / Low: 7575
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7542.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the upside momentum after breaking the weekly pattern of lower highs, while keeping Monday’s gap unfilled following Thursday’s weakness.

The daily has formed a 5-day balance within the current multi-week balance, which is now of short-term interest, allowing us to apply the balance guidelines as a framework.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend last week’s VPOC at 7772, a high volume node (HVN) below which Thursday’s weakness failed to gain acceptance. Failure to defend this area would be short-term bearish and open the door to a fill of Monday’s bull gap at 7718, the lower balance extreme.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the upper balance extreme at 7848. Failure to defend this area would set the stage for price exploration into uncharted territory, while SPX and SPY challenge their respective ATHs.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7772, last week’s VPOC, aligning closing with last month’s VPOC and the current developing monthly VAH. Holding above 7772 would be short-term bullish, targeting the prior and current ATH at 7838 and 7848. Acceptance above 7848 would signal strength and open the door to bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7925 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7955, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area coincides with SPX 7900, where upside momentum could potentially stall as the auction moves into uncharted territory. Keep in mind that while ES printed a new ATH at 7848 last week on the continuous contract, SPX (7,816.70) and SPY (779.37) have yet to do the same.

Break and hold below 7772 would be short-term bearish and target the unfilled bull gap at 7718. Acceptance below 7718 would signal weakness and open the door to bearish continuation toward the support area between 7670 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7640, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the prior multi-week balance high, which also serves as a composite low volume node (LVN), making it a crucial area to defend. Failure to do so would once again open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7772.

• Holding above 7772 would target 7838-48 / 7925 / 7955* / 8000 / 8040

• Break and hold below 7772 would target 7718 / 7670 / 7640* / 7598 / 7541

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s weakness carried into the overnight session, with sellers breaking below 7764 (DT1) and keeping pressure on the auction. As a result, all downside targets were cleared toward the final target at 7718 (FDT), where responsive buyers stepped in and excess formed. Within this excess, notable orderflow activity was observed at 7712, unusually large for the overnight session (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened with a true gap down inside Monday’s gap area. As mentioned in the pre-open update, strength would be defined by a reclaim of 7764 (DT1), effectively negating today’s gap, while a weak market builds acceptance below 7718 (FDT). Immediate resistance was 7739 (DT2), which buyers managed to reclaim early on, with VIX dropping below its resistance level at 15.82. This triggered a gap-fill attempt, which ultimately failed as the auction came within three ticks of Wednesday’s low before a reversal unfolded.

Once buyers lost 7739 and VIX returned above 15.82, it looked like the auction was preparing to fill Monday’s gap at 7718 and repeat the overnight session. However, news headlines instead triggered a squeeze. This is part of trading and why it’s crucial to stay disciplined at all times. The news spike was capped by 7784 (Smashlevel), printing a high at 7783.50, after which two-sided trade developed for the rest of the session.

Session Recap

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Despite notable overnight and early RTH weakness, today’s session ultimately closed back within Wednesday’s range after partially filling Monday’s true gap, helped by news headlines.

Wednesday’s low at 7758, which aligns with today’s Initial Balance high, is a key reference I’m using to gauge the short-term state of the auction.

A weak market builds value below 7758, rejecting both today’s and Wednesday’s VPOCs. This would once again open the door to a fill of Monday’s gap. Acceptance above 7781, ending the daily one-time framing down in the process, would be a sign of strength.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7758.

• Holding above 7758 would target 7781 / 7805 / 7838

• Break and hold below 7758 would target 7738 / 7718

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.42 and 14.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.92 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7718 with VIX above 16.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Following Monday’s session, we noted that trading could be tricky after coming within reach of the Weekly Extreme High at 7855 as early as Monday. Tuesday then formed a weak high, potentially signaling buying exhaustion, while aggressive buying above 7838 was absorbed by passive sellers.

During the overnight session, buyers again struggled to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838, eventually leading to a small liquidation break pre-open (see Figure 1).

Just before the flush, aggressive buyers were once again absorbed by passive sellers. Note how price failed to move higher between the highlighted lines despite heavy aggressive buying on the tape (see Figure 2).

This was also clearly visible on the Footprint chart (see Figure 3).

Without orderflow, this underlying activity can be difficult to see. Candlesticks show where price traded, but not the interaction between aggressive and passive traders, which can provide an extra layer of context.

The RTH session opened below Tuesday’s value area and immediately showed weakness, slicing through both 7816 (Smashlevel) and 7800 (DT1) in the process. Monday’s poor structure was almost completely cleaned up during the Initial Balance, the first 60 minutes of RTH. The auction found responsive buyers a couple of handles shy off 7775 (FDT), in confluence with VIX testing its resistance at 14.84. However, buyers were unable to reclaim 7800 (DT1), signaling continued weakness intraday. The 7775 level was then revisited, with VIX once again hovering around its resistance, making it rather unfavorable to press the short side. Despite this, sellers managed to break below 7775 and evidently triggered some stops, but we ultimately closed out the session back near 7775.

Session Recap

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Following Monday’s notable trend day and Tuesday’s balanced session, which formed a weak high, we saw long liquidation today. The key question now, after fully cleaning up Monday’s poor structure, is whether today’s session was driven by stronger sellers or simply reflected a flush of weak-handed longs.

Today’s afternoon rally high at 7784 is a key reference I’m using to gauge the short-term state of the auction. Acceptance above 7784, and Monday and Tuesday’s HVN becomes a potential upside magnet. Sustained weakness below, and Monday’s gap could come into play.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7784.

• Break and hold above 7784 would target 7805 / 7838

• Holding below 7784 would target 7764 / 7739 / 7718

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.82 and 14.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.54 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7718 with VIX above 15.82 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

There’s not much to add after today’s rather uneventful session. As we discussed, it’s not uncommon for price action to be muted the day after an emotional session like Monday’s, which can make for tricky trading conditions. Traders who tried to trade Monday’s price action again today were unlikely to find much success. Notable aggressive buying activity was absorbed today above the prior ATH at 7838, as we can observe on the delta profile.

Contextual awareness is one of the most important skills as a trader, allowing you to adapt quickly as market conditions change. That said, there’s nothing bearish about today’s session despite the lack of upside follow-through, as the auction was simply digesting Monday’s move. The fact that only one of Monday’s six sets of single prints was cleaned up today is a bullish indication.

The overnight session delivered failures above 7838 (UT1) for traders working the short side, while weakness after the Euro opened found responsive buyers following a Look Below and Fail of 7816 (Smashlevel). The RTH session was choppier, with aggressive buyers attempting to gain traction above the prior ATH at 7838, only to be absorbed by passive sellers. Non-emotional, choppy environments are great for scalping rotations off orderflow activity.

There was an interesting sequence in the M-period, the final 30 minutes of RTH. Another attempt above 7838 was made by aggressive buyers, which was absorbed and followed by aggressive sellers stepping in, forming a reversal bar with relatively large volume. The VPOC of the reversal bar was then retested, where aggressive buyers were once again absorbed, triggering downside continuation (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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Today’s session saw consolidation at the upper end of Monday’s range as the market digested Monday’s significant move, which is often the case following a trend day.

The developing weekly profile has formed a P-shaped profile following today’s session. The main distribution is of short-term interest, where we can apply the balance guidelines as a framework. The current ATH is weak, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion and suggesting that stronger buyers may be lower.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7816.

• Holding above 7816 would target 7838 / 7855 / 7889

• Break and hold below 7816 would target 7800 / 7775

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.84 and 13.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7889 with VIX below 13.56 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7775 with VIX above 14.84 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.