— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The auction established a well-balanced profile during the overnight session, with the VPOC aligning with the Smashlevel at 7005. Buyers pushed higher pre-open, leading to another true gap open in RTH. The key takeaway is that a true gap, in either direction, signals a shift in tone relative to the prior session. It is then our job to assess whether that shift is accepted or rejected.

The A-period, referring to the first 30 minutes of RTH, offered strong trade opportunities. The first setup, a more advanced counter-trend play, involved fading a failure above the overnight high. This is a common fade when the ONH is tested immediately after a gap higher. Aggressive buyers were heavily absorbed, triggering a reversal (see Figure 1). The second setup was preferable, as it was trend-aligned with higher potential. This was the gap-fill reversal (the target of the initial fade setup), which closely aligned with the Smashlevel at 7005. Notably, both the overnight VPOC and the Mid aligned with 7005, adding confluence. Today’s LOD was 7004, from which the market rallied 60 handles to print a new ATH, cleaning up the unfinished business and completing Tuesday’s bullish imbalance in the process.

Be observant: The auction has moved significantly away from multiple value references, making it tricky to chase here. What makes this situation more complex is the fact that we have breached the prior ATH, making fades unfavorable until the auction at least fails to hold the 7043–7035 area. To put this into perspective: we are 200+ handles above short-term value (5D VPOC) and 400+ handles above medium-term value (20D VPOC). Additionally, we are trading 4% above the monthly VWAP, having breached both the Weekly Extreme High at 7035 and the Monthly Extreme High at 7062. On top of this, after reclaiming the multi-balance low at 6790, we’ve traversed the balance range and initiated an immediate breakout without any meaningful pullbacks. Typically, breakouts like this are harder to sustain, as the auction becomes exhausted prior to the breakout. No signs of weakness yet, but keep these data points in your narrative if you are planning to initiate any swing longs here.

Smashlevels Recap

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The relentless upside imbalance remains intact, with the market printing a new all-time high and cleaning up the prior overnight ATH at 7043 in the process.

The auction is starting to get a bit ahead of itself, but unless sellers can gain traction below 7043, in line with today’s J-period single prints, there’s no reason to fight this freight train.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7092 (UT1), while a break and hold below 7043–35 (DT1) has the potential to introduce short-term weakness, with the objective of cleaning up structural deficiencies.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7062, the Monthly Extreme High. Holding below 7062 would target technical fills of structure toward 7043-35 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7005 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7062 would shift focus to the HTF level at 7092 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7115 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7062.

• Break and hold above 7062 would target 7092 / 7115

• Holding below 7062 would target 7043-35 / 7005

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.38 and 16.96. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7115 with VIX below 16.96 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7005 with VIX above 19.38 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key heading into this week was to monitor whether buyers could continue to build value within the prior multi-week balance area after reclaiming the balance low at 6790 last week. This would open the door to a full traverse, targeting the opposite side of the range, a common outcome once acceptance is established within a prior balance (see Figure 1 on chart). Monday overnight, sellers attempted to gain traction below 6790 and failed, increasing confidence in a continuation higher. We are now 30 handles shy of the balance highs, which also mark the all-time highs. Keep in mind that if you have not participated on the long side from the 6790 area, approaching the all-time highs is not a location to initiate new longs, as the top of the balance area is considered resistance until proven otherwise.

Today’s session didn’t leave much to analyze, as it was fairly straightforward. Buyers reclaimed 6927 overnight, signaling intraday strength, and after a pullback to 6928 during the European session, the auction never looked back. The RTH session opened on a true gap higher, with little to no trade below the opening level. UT2 at 6960 was tagged in the A-period, briefly stalling upside momentum before continuation unfolded in the B-period. The final upside target at 6981 was tagged and exceeded in the D-period, while the VIX notably held above its support level at 17.82, making it tricky to chase further upside. Overall, the session offered little opportunity for RTH traders. The only potential setup was the afternoon pullback in the J and K-period, but that would have meant entering above FUT, which is generally an unfavorable trade location.

Smashlevels Recap

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After reclaiming the prior multi-week balance low at 6790 last week and defending it early this week, we are now approaching the balance highs (ATH), which act as a target area according to balance guidelines. The RTH ATH is at 7031, while we also have an untested overnight ATH at 7043 as unfinished business.

The session formed a P-shape (bullish imbalance) after a sustained true gap higher, with single prints in the B and D periods. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7043 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6985 (DT1), today’s afternoon pullback low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7005, the spike base. Holding above 7005 signals strength and targets the cluster of levels at 7031, 7035, and 7043 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7070 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7005 would shift focus to the afternoon pullback low at 6985 (DT1). Acceptance below 6985 would signal intraday weakness and target 6961 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6924 (FDT), unfilled gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7005.

• Holding above 7005 would target 7031-43 / 7070

• Break and hold below 7005 would target 6985 / 6961 / 6924

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.48 and 17.24. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7070 with VIX below 17.24 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6924 with VIX above 19.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened with a gap lower, which was to be expected given the headlines over the weekend. We opened below the crucial 6790 level, which marks the prior multi-week balance area low and closely aligns with the top of last week’s notable gap. Sellers initially defended 6790, creating the potential for a bearish development. During news events, the key is to observe how the market reacts, which is why we consistently gauge the strength or weakness of the auction in relation to our levels. Opinions are irrelevant.

What should have happened overnight? We opened with a gap below three days’ worth of inventory, with last week’s notable gap sitting below. The expected behavior would have been sustained weakness; however, buyers quickly reclaimed 6790. This was immediate information that we are not dealing with stronger sellers, as they would not have allowed that. As noted: “If price explores into the gap area, 6790 becomes a key level to monitor for reclaims or lack thereof.” The lack of sustained weakness led to a pre-open test of 6830 (DT1), where seller stepped in. Remember, holding below 6830 would have been bearish intraday, as it would have placed the market back within Thursday’s lower distribution.

The RTH session opened on a true gap down within Thursday’s single prints area, and 6830 was tested immediately, finding responsive buyers. The key question was whether buyers could regain acceptance within Friday’s range and reclaim the Smashlevel at 6848, or whether sellers would reject that. Buyers filled the gap as value began to build within Friday’s range, another sign of weak sellers, effectively invalidating any short bias. The continued failure from sellers opened the door for a revisit of the HVN at 6880 (UT1), and that was exactly what happened. Typically, a failure to sustain a true gap targets a traverse of the prior day’s range. During the afternoon session, 6880 was reclaimed, value was building above it, and the expected behavior of upside continuation unfolded. In the process, the auction came a few ticks shy of tagging our final upside target at 6927 (FUT), marking the 2026 opening price. Note that buyers managed to end the monthly one-time framing down after breaking last month’s high at 6911.

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Upon price exploration into last week’s gap area, 6790 was the key level to monitor, as sellers needed to hold below it to potentially shift the tone. The failure to build value and acceptance below it overnight led to a notable counter-move in the direction of the prevailing short-term trend.

The market has returned to the yearly opening price following closing strength, forming a notable spike that is now of short-term interest. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6927 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6880 (DT1), returning into last week’s range. PPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6900, the spike base. Holding above 6900 signals stability and targets the 2026 opening price at 6927 (UT1). Acceptance above 6927 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6960 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6981 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6900 would shift focus to the HVN at 6880 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6856 (FDT), the 5D VPOC, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6900.

• Holding above 6900 would target 6927 / 6960 / 6981

• Break and hold below 6900 would target 6880 / 6856

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.44 and 17.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6981 with VIX below 17.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6856 with VIX above 20.44 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session consolidated within Thursday’s upper distribution, offering strong opportunities around our key levels at 6880 (UT1) and 6848 (Smashlevel), especially 6880, where aggressive buyers got trapped (see Figure 1). The 6880 level is the YTD VPOC, which we have now returned to after trading 500+ handles lower the prior week, quite a move.

Smashlevels Recap

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Buyers built acceptance at higher prices following Wednesday’s significant true gap higher, tagging the high volume node at 6880 in the process. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key is whether buyers can continue to do so or if we see structural fills of the rather excessive gap.

Plenty of headlines over the weekend could set the stage for an emotional open, so stay sharp. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6880 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6830 (DT1), a return within Thursday’s lower distribution.

If price explores into the gap area, 6790 becomes a key level to monitor for reclaims or lack thereof.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6848, Thursday’s afternoon pullback low. Holding above 6848 signals stability and targets the 90D VPOC at 6880 (UT1). Acceptance above 6880 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6900 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6927 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6848 would shift focus to the breakout single prints at 6830 (DT1). Acceptance below 6830 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the 5D VPOC at 6815 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6790 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6848.

• Holding above 6848 would target 6880 / 6900 / 6927

• Break and hold below 6848 would target 6830 / 6815 / 6790

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.56 and 17.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6927 with VIX below 17.92 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6790 with VIX above 20.56 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, the key focus was whether buyers could maintain upside momentum following the double distribution trend day on Thursday, April 2. The key level was 6575, marking the breakout single prints separating the two distributions.

Sellers attempted to reject this trend day both pre-market on Monday and during Tuesday’s RTH session (see Figure 1), with both attempts being met by responsive buyers defending the key 6575 level.

Change took place after Tuesday’s close, as the market exploded higher following ceasefire headlines. In the process, the Weekly Extreme High at 6790 was tagged and exceeded. Liquidity was extremely thin, which made trading very tricky overnight (see Figure 2).

The key during Wednesday’s RTH session, and basically for the rest of the week, was to monitor the Weekly Extreme High at 6790, which aligned with the low of the distribution formed Wednesday pre-market (see Figure 3).

A quick trap below 6790 offered a great trade setup on Wednesday (see Figure 4).

Wednesday’s balanced session, in which the auction digested the large true gap higher, was followed by upside continuation on Thursday. A double distribution trend day formed after passive buyers defended the Smashlevel at 6805 (see Figures 5 and 6). The Smashlevel represents the pivot for the session and can be found in the daily plans we publish each day.

Friday’s session consolidated within Thursday’s upper distribution, offering strong opportunities around our key levels at 6880 (UT1) and 6848 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 7), especially 6880, where aggressive buyers got trapped (see Figure 8). The 6880 level is the YTD VPOC, which we have now returned to after trading 500+ handles lower the prior week, quite a move.

The weekly profile formed a double distribution following Wednesday’s significant true gap higher, with the 5D VPOC migrating into the upper distribution. The auction is back within the prior multi-week balance area from the start of the year, so the key question is whether buyers can continue to find acceptance here and traverse that balance range, or if we will get fills of the rather excessive gap. The size of the gap makes conditions tricky in the short-term, so stay nimble.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 6846.25
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 6-Week → High: 6911.25 / Low: 6359.50
🟥 Monthly: OTFD → Ends at: 6911.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following Wednesday’s significant true gap higher. Interestingly, the auction has moved back into the prior multi-week balance area and the developing YTD value, catching sellers off guard.

A strong response would see value continue to build within the prior multi-week balance area, which notably aligns with the top of the gap, while quickly finding responsive buyers on any partial fills of the gap area. This would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs, which carry unfinished business.

Failure to do so, meaning acceptance into the gap area, would trap late buyers and open the door to a full gap fill. In such a scenario, the key is to monitor for a gap-fill reversal or lack thereof to gauge the state of the auction.

The weekly Smashlevel is 6880, the YTD VPOC, marking long-term value (90D VPOC). Break and hold above 6880 would signal strength and target the 2026 opening price at 6927. Acceptance above 6927 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7005 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7035, where selling activity can be expected. This would complete a full traverse of the prior multi-week balance, where we still carry forward unfinished business, including a lack of excess and an untested overnight ATH at 7043.

Holding below 6880 would set the stage for rotational activity, targeting last week’s VPOC at 6815 and the lower end of last week’s upper distribution at 6790, notably aligning with the prior multi-week balance low. Acceptance below 6790 would signal weakness and open the door to a move into the support area between 6690 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6660, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of the HTF level at 6692 and the unfilled gap at 6659, a crucial area for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would put them in a vulnerable position following last week’s shift in tone.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6880.

• Break and hold above 6880 would target 6927 / 7005 / 7035* / 7092 / 7135

• Holding below 6880 would target 6815-6790 / 6690 / 6660* / 6635 / 6575

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Overnight trading was rather uneventful, as expected following the sizable move higher the prior day. Buyers defended the Smashlevel at 6805 during the Asia session, while sellers gained some traction below 6805 after Europe opened. Sellers were unable to break below 6790, which was needed to potentially trigger weakness, with an overnight low printing at 6792.50.

The RTH session opened within Wednesday’s range and value, meaning we could expect two-sided activity early on. The market traded in a very tight range during the first three periods (A to C-period), with aggressive sellers getting absorbed near the Smashlevel at 6805 (see Figure 1).

The failure of sellers to gain meaningful traction below 6805 triggered a bounce that led to a major squeeze, tagging 6868 (UT2) in the process (see Figure 2).

Both the initial balance high and 6833 (UT1) provided pullbacks to potentially join the move if you were not able to enter earlier. UT2 at 6868 was marked as a potential look-above-and-fail area in the plan, and it in fact offered a textbook LAAF from an orderflow perspective for a short-term trade (see Figure 3). Key word: short-term, as this would be a counter-trend trade, meaning target expectations must be adjusted accordingly.

The 6868 level capped today’s upside, with the market forming a double distribution profile and shifting the VPOC to the upper distribution into the close. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 6610 to 6815, which is bullish in the context of Wednesday’s true gap higher. Value follows price. Notably, we’ve now reached the 90D VPOC at 6880, marking long-term value after having traded 500+ handles lower a couple of sessions ago—quite a move. It’s worth reiterating that we are trading 70 handles above the Weekly Extreme High, making the trade location for initiating new swing longs a bit tricky (read: unfavorable), so keep it tight. For example, failure to sustain today’s trend day could lead to a quick trip back to the HVN at 6815, and below that there is a lot of thin air. Stay nimble.

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Wednesday’s balanced session, in which the auction digested the large gap higher, was followed by an upside continuation today. A double distribution trend day formed, with single prints in the E-period.

The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 6848, marking the lower end of the upper distribution. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6880 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6830 (DT1), a return within today’s lower distribution. CPI on deck tomorrow!

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6848, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 6848 signals stability and targets the 90D VPOC at 6880 (UT1). Acceptance above 6880 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6900 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6927 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6848 would shift focus to the breakout single prints at 6830 (DT1). Acceptance below 6830 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the 5D VPOC at 6815 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6790 (FDT), the Weekly Extreme Low, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6848.

• Holding above 6848 would target 6880 / 6900 / 6927

• Break and hold below 6848 would target 6830 / 6815 / 6790

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.78 and 18.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6927 with VIX below 18.22 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6790 with VIX above 20.78 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Ceasefire headlines triggered a significant upside move during the overnight session, tagging and exceeding the Weekly Extreme High at 6790. With these types of emotional moves, it’s best not to rush into anything and let the market settle. Liquidity in the book was extremely thin, another reason to stay on the sidelines (see Figure 1). Last week, we discussed how Thursday’s single prints area aligned with last month’s value area low at 6583. Overnight, the market traversed the entire value area, reaching last month’s value area high at 6833. Quite a move.

Heading into the RTH session, the key was the distribution the auction had established above the Weekly Extreme High at 6790, as highlighted pre-open (see Figure 2). If buyers were unable to accept the higher prices, a lot of poor structure was waiting to be cleaned up.

A true gap up of this size creates a tricky trading environment, which is why I’m typically less active, as these sessions tend to be lackluster while the auction digests the move. Patient traders were given an excellent trade opportunity when sellers were quickly trapped below the 6790 level (see Figure 3). A classic “look-below-and-fail” setup resulted in a move back to the developing VPOC at 6815, and eventually retest of the opening level.

Aside from this, there wasn’t much else going on, as the auction was consolidating within the overnight distribution, digesting the move. For the rest of the week, monitoring the 6790 level will remain important. Failure to hold would trap late buyers and open the door to technical structure fills. These are not necessarily bearish, but rather an opportunity for stronger buyers to enter at more favorable prices. Today’s true gap is filled at 6659.25, 164 handles below today’s settlement, meaning it would take a significant move for sellers to regain short-term control. This creates a more complex short-term environment.

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A massive overnight move led to an expected uneventful RTH session, with the market consolidating within the overnight distribution and holding the key 6790 level. After reclaiming last month’s value area low last week, the auction has now fully traversed the value area, reaching last month’s value area high.

We are in a very complex situation with today’s notably large gap higher, making the trade location for an immediate upside continuation unappealing, while any weakness will likely be met by reloading buyers. Stay nimble. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6833 (UT1), last month’s VAH, while a break and hold below 6790 (DT1) would open the door to filling structural deficiencies.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6805, the Initial Balance low. Holding above 6805 would target last month’s VAH at 6833 (UT1). Acceptance above 6833 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6868 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6900 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6805 would shift focus to the Weekly Extreme High at 6790 (DT1). Acceptance below 6790 would signal intraday weakness, targeting today’s FS Mid at 6750 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6734 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6805.

• Holding above 6805 would target 6833 / 6868 / 6900

• Break and hold below 6805 would target 6790 / 6750 / 6734

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.64 and 19.44. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6900 with VIX below 19.44 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6734 with VIX above 22.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: the context remains unchanged, with the market closing a second consecutive session around last week’s high. The overnight session remained within our key levels, 6667 (UT1) and 6605 (DT1), and continues to offer solid opportunities (see Figure 1). The reversal off 6605 was particularly notable, with VIX resistance at 26.02 providing confluence.

Sellers defended the Smashlevel at 6635 in RTH, leading to early weakness. Notably, the VIX breached its resistance in the process. Regular readers of this newsletter are aware that when the VIX breaches resistance, downside targets can act as magnets, making it crucial to monitor whether sellers step in on bounces. 6605 (DT1) was breached in the B-period, but sellers were unable to then tag the final downside target at 6575 (FDT). The auction returned to the 6605 area, where a notable battle unfolded during the C-period. While this was unfolding, the VIX remained above its resistance, and the market rotated lower for another downside leg. This time, 6575 (FDT) was reached, and Thursday’s single prints were effectively cleaned up. This marked the low of the session, as sellers were unable to extend further despite an elevated VIX. Despite a notably news-sensitive environment, our levels of interest continued to provide good reactions throughout the remainder of the session (see Figure 2).

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Today’s RTH session did what the prior overnight session did: it cleaned up the poor structure from Thursday’s double distribution, with responsive buyers once again stepping in at the key 6575 level. The session closed with an upward spike, highlighted on the chart, marking a second consecutive close around last week’s high.

In the short term, we will monitor buyers’ ability to sustain the higher prices of the spike. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6667 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6610 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6646, the spike base. Holding above 6646 would target 6667 (UT1). Acceptance above 6667 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6692 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6715 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6646 would shift focus to the HVN at 6610 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6575 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6646.

• Holding above 6646 would target 6667 / 6692 / 6715

• Break and hold below 6646 would target 6610 / 6575

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.70 and 23.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6715 with VIX below 23.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6575 with VIX above 27.70 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened with weakness, immediately testing Thursday’s breakout single prints at 6575 (DT1), a level we discussed extensively ahead of today’s session. Thursday’s C-period single prints were important to monitor, as they would give us clues about the short-term state of the market. The market looked below 6575 and failed, a bullish development, as sellers failed to gain traction within Thursday’s lower distribution. Following this, the auction worked its way back to the high volume node at 6635 (UT1), where sellers stepped in on the first test.

In contrast to the overnight session, RTH offered fewer quality setups, as it largely consolidated within Thursday’s excess and stayed within its initial balance range, the first 60 minutes of RTH. A key nuance today was that buyers ended the weekly one-time framing down, breaking the pattern of lower highs on the weekly chart. This is notable since the weekly has been one-time framing down for five weeks, following the multi-week breakdown in early March. It remains to be seen whether this achievement by buyers will mark a change in tone moving forward.

Value developed cleanly higher today relative to Thursday’s session, and value building above 6635 is considered a bullish development. Typically, if the auction moves away from a high volume area, gets rejected, and then returns to build value above it, this often signals increased confidence for a move in the opposite direction. On the chart, I’ve marked an area of prior balance, and as long as we remain within this range, we need to stay nimble. We can also identify this high volume area on the composite volume profile on the far right.

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Sellers attempted to reject Thursday’s trend day overnight, but responsive buyers at the key 6575 level quickly negated the move, triggering a rotation back to the high volume node at 6635. In the process, buyers broke the pattern of lower highs on the weekly chart.

The key now is to monitor whether buyers can build on this short-term momentum to initiate a move away from the high volume area. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6667 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6605 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6635, the HVN. Holding above 6635 would target 6667 (UT1). Acceptance above 6667 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6692 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6715 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6635 would shift focus to 6605 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6575 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6635.

• Holding above 6635 would target 6667 / 6692 / 6715

• Break and hold below 6635 would target 6605 / 6575

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.02 and 22.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6715 with VIX below 22.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6575 with VIX above 26.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Thursday’s session was quite interesting, as it opened on a notably large true gap down, leaving Wednesday’s buyers trapped. This presented an excellent opportunity for sellers to do what they have done over the past several weeks and close out the week with weakness. However, responsive buyers stepped in within the single prints that separated Tuesday’s double distribution, and the session moved back within Wednesday’s range after closing the true gap.

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Thursday formed a double distribution trend day, with single prints in the C-period, notably aligning with last month’s VAL, separating the two distributions. As noted in the Weekly Plan, the key now is to monitor where value develops relative to these distributions to assess short-term strength or weakness.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6635 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6575 (DT1), effectively rejecting Thursday’s trend day.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6605, Thursday’s TPOC. Holding above 6605 would target the HVN at 6635 (UT1). Acceptance above 6635 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6667 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6692 (FUT), the HTF level, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6605 would shift focus to Thursday’s breakout single prints at 6575 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6550 (FDT), Thursday’s excess base, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6605.

• Holding above 6605 would target 6635 / 6667 / 6692

• Break and hold below 6605 would target 6575 / 6550

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 25.68 and 22.06. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6692 with VIX below 22.06 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6550 with VIX above 25.68 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

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Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, we once again discussed that the auction had moved significantly away from multiple value references, which opened the door for a potential short-covering rally if an immediate downside continuation failed to materialize.

Sellers attempted downside continuation on Monday pre-market, probing below the prior week’s low. The move failed, triggering a notable short-covering rally ahead of RTH. The RTH session then retraced the overnight gains, closing the session below the prior week’s low.

The key on Tuesday was whether sellers could build value below the prior week’s low, as failure to do so would keep the door open for a short-covering rally. Sellers again failed to gain downside traction, triggering an overnight short-covering rally that extended through RTH, forming a double distribution trend day. The gap at 6520.25 was filled in the process.

Tuesday’s strength was followed by a sustained true gap up on Wednesday, pushing the auction into the 6605–6635 weekly resistance area. The 6635 high volume node was identified as a potential upside magnet in the absence of early weakness and remained pivotal for the rest of the week.

Upon reaching this high volume area, which represents a location where prior value has been established, we could expect upside momentum to slow down, especially after a rally of nearly 300 handles.

Thursday’s session was quite interesting, as it opened on a notably large true gap down, leaving Wednesday’s buyers trapped. This presented an excellent opportunity for sellers to do what they have done over the past several weeks and close out the week with weakness. However, responsive buyers stepped in within the single prints that separated Tuesday’s double distribution, and the session moved back within Wednesday’s range after closing the true gap (see Figure 1).

It’s hard to know what to make of Thursday’s session, but it’s clear that stronger sellers were absent. They would not have allowed a gap of that size to be filled or the session to close back within Wednesday’s range. Note that we are also back within the value area of the previous month, which coincides with Thursday’s single prints that ultimately formed a double distribution profile. This is obviously a very news-sensitive market, but this set of single prints will be key to monitor moving forward.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 2-Day → High: 6653.75 / Low: 6514.25
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 6653.75
🟥 Monthly: OTFD → Ends at: 6911.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following Thursday’s quite unexpected trend day to the upside after opening on a notably large true gap down. The session formed a double distribution profile, and early-week value development relative to the two distributions will be key in determining the next move.

A strong response would see value building within Thursday’s upper distribution, accepting the trend day. This would be noteworthy given the nature of Thursday’s profile, formed as a P-shape, which is indicative of short-covering rather than strong buying.

Failure to do so, meaning the market accepts back within Thursday’s lower distribution and rejects last week’s most traded price by volume (VPOC), would open the door to continued downside pressure.

The weekly Smashlevel is 6575, Thursday’s breakout single prints. Holding above 6575 would target the HVN at 6635. Acceptance above 6635 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the HTF level at 6692, as well as the resistance area between 6760 and the Weekly Extreme High at 6790, where selling activity can be expected. Note how this resistance area aligns with the prior multi-week balance low, a crucial area for sellers to defend. Additionally, we carry forward an unfilled gap at 6764.25.

Break and hold below 6575 would negate Friday’s trend day and target Tuesday’s breakout single prints at 6497. Acceptance below 6497 would signal further weakness and open the door to a move into the support area between 6445 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6415, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of the HTF level at 6446, a crucial level for buyers to defend on a retest to avoid another leg to the downside.

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6575.

• Holding above 6575 would target 6635 / 6692 / 6760 / 6790* / 6840

• Break and hold below 6575 would target 6497 / 6445 / 6415* / 6328 / 6250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The immediate area of interest following Tuesday’s closing strength was the M-period spike area highlighted in blue, specifically its base at 6566. A strong auction would accept the higher prices of the spike for upside continuation, while failure to do so would signal rejection of the closing strength and potentially target a fill of the notable single prints from Tuesday’s G-period. An early attempt to break and hold below 6566 overnight was quickly rejected, resulting in continued strength (ONL: 6561). The market cleared all intraday upside targets into the FUT at 6635 pre-open, where responsive sellers stepped in following a news headline. This 6635 level is crucial to monitor in the short term, as reiterated pre-open (see Figure 1).

As buyers were able to extend the strength from Tuesday, the RTH opened on a true gap up. Today, the opening sequence was rather tricky, as we opened far from both the overnight high and the prior day’s high, making trade location difficult. While the early move higher found sellers, buyers’ ability to maintain control of the opening level for most of the session was key. Note the limited activity below the green A letter on the chart. The auction then built value above UT1 at 6611 during the B-period while holding the opening level, making it difficult for sellers to gain traction.

Buyers were able to revisit the FUT at 6635 in the C-period, which temporarily stalled upside momentum before the auction moved higher in the E-period. Did you notice that while ES was breaking above the FUT at 6635, the VIX remained above its support level at 23.08? As always, when VIX fails to confirm strength, I typically stay away from chasing further upside. After grinding higher for 20 handles, a nasty liquidation break occurred in the afternoon session, erasing all morning gains. The opening level ultimately capped the downside momentum, and the session closed within the initial balance range.

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Tuesday’s closing strength was followed by a sustained true gap up today. Take note of the prior area of balance, which the auction has now returned to. Last Thursday, sellers initiated a move away from this area, and now we’ve returned. The key question now is whether the sellers’ failed attempt to sustain last week’s weakness will increase confidence in the opposite direction. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6635 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6583 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6606, today’s opening level. Holding above 6606 would target 6635 (UT1). Acceptance above 6635 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6667 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6692 (FUT), the HTF level, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6606 would shift focus to the gap at 6583 (DT1). Acceptance below 6583 would signal intraday weakness, targeting Tuesday’s spike base at 6566 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6529 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6606.

• Holding above 6606 would target 6635 / 6667 / 6692

• Break and hold below 6606 would target 6583 / 6566 / 6529

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.42 and 22.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6692 with VIX below 22.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6529 with VIX above 26.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Trade location for initiating new shorts was tricky heading into the week, given how far the auction had moved from multiple value references, and became even more complex following Monday’s close at the lows. The overnight session looked below the DT1 at 6367 and failed, triggering short-covering almost identical to how the prior overnight session played out. Buyers reclaimed 6412 (Smashlevel) and 6446 (UT1), setting up another RTH open within Friday’s upper distribution, effectively repeating Monday’s playbook.

Opening within Friday’s upper distribution, the key was once again to monitor the crucial 6446 level, which buyers failed to defend on Monday. Today was a different story, as buyers built value and acceptance within Friday’s upper distribution while defending 6446 almost to the tick. This short-term “change in tone” was accompanied by the VIX holding below its 27.94 support for most of the RTH session, something we haven’t seen in a while. After volatile A- and C-periods, the auction began building value above the final upside target at 6468. Combined with the VIX holding below its support, these conditions opened the door for a potential fill of last week’s gap. With key factors aligning for upside continuation, headlines came in favor of the move, and the market accelerated higher. As a result, a double distribution trend day was established, cleaning up the poor structure from Thursday’s triple distribution trend day in the process.

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The potential for a short-covering rally, highlighted heading into the week, ultimately played out today, driven by supportive headlines. In the process, last week’s true gap was filled, and Thursday’s poor structure was fully repaired. The key question now is whether buyers can follow through and shift the tone from the past couple of weeks, or if today’s squeeze ultimately gives stronger sellers another opportunity to reload.

Today’s highlighted M-period spike, which probed into last week’s value area, is of short-term interest. The high volume node at 6635 is the upside magnet if the closing strength is accepted, while failure to do so opens the door to a fill of today’s poor structure. Acceptance back within today’s lower distribution would not be a good look for buyers.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6566, the M-period spike base. Holding above 6566 would signal strength, targeting 6611 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6635 (FUT), the Weekly Extreme High, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 6566 would shift focus to 6529 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6497 (FDT), the breakout single prints, under sustained selling pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6566.

• Holding above 6566 would target 6611 / 6635

• Break and hold below 6566 would target 6529 / 6497

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.44 and 23.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6635 with VIX below 23.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6497 with VIX above 27.44 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session saw immediate weakness, a scenario we discussed would not be favorable for chasing shorts, given Friday’s close and its notable distance from multiple value references. This highlights why contextual awareness is essential for longevity in this game. A key principle is that in a downtrend, the best short setups come after a buying effort fails to shift tone and momentum, typically leading to continuation in the direction of the trend. The same applies in reverse for an uptrend, where the best long setups come after a selling effort fails. Always exercise caution when chasing at poor locations, as these often occur well after the optimal setup has passed.

The market looked below the initial downside target at 6370 (DT1) but failed, resulting in a short-covering rally, which should not have come as a surprise to prepared traders. The key is to monitor how the market reacts after shorts have finished covering, to ultimately determine whether a shift in tone will occur. The Smashlevel at 6412 was reclaimed in the process, and both crucial UT1 (6446) and UT2 (6467) were tagged pre-open.

The RTH session opened within Friday’s upper distribution, a bullish development in the context of Friday’s close. The conditions were straightforward: could buyers hold within the upper distribution by defending the crucial 6446 level, which separates Friday’s distributions? That would represent a shift in tone in the very short term and open the door to further short-covering. Notably, not a single 30-minute bar closed above 6446 in RTH today, which essentially triggered continued weakness. The failed buying effort offered a great location to be aggressive on the sell side, leaning on the prevailing trend, which is to the downside. Friday’s spike base found responsive buyers during the morning session but was eventually breached in the H-period, resulting in another lower low on the daily chart.

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Buyers ultimately failed to establish acceptance within Friday’s upper distribution following the overnight “strength,” resulting in continued downside pressure, with value overlapping lower. Sellers remain firmly in control of the auction and will continue to be so as long as the daily one-time framing lower remains intact.

I will continue to observe Friday’s spike base at 6412, closely aligning with today’s RTH VWAP and Initial Balance low. It’s hard to see a shift in tone in the short term unless buyers can return within the range from last week.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6446 (UT1), signaling a return to Friday’s upper distribution, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6367 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6412, Friday’s M-period spike base. Holding below 6412 would maintain downside pressure, targeting the HVN at 6367 (DT1). Acceptance below 6367 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the 10% correction level at 6328 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6299 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6412 would shift focus to 6446 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6468 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6412.

• Break and hold above 6412 would target 6446 / 6468

• Holding below 6412 would target 6370 / 6328 / 6299

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 33.28 and 27.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6468 with VIX below 27.94 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6299 with VIX above 33.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers initiated a directional move from the 6635 high volume node on Thursday, forming a triple distribution trend day, followed by another trend day on Friday after a sustained true gap down. The auction is imbalanced across all time frames, and the key now is whether value can migrate lower through acceptance at these levels.

Immediate focus is on Friday’s lower distribution and its highlighted spike base at 6412. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6446, signaling a return to Friday’s upper distribution, while failure to do so would maintain downside pressure, primarily targeting a 10% correction. VIX 30+, stay nimble.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6412, Friday’s M-period spike base. Holding below 6412 would maintain downside pressure, targeting 6370 (DT1). Acceptance below 6370 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6345 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6328 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6412 would shift focus to 6446 (UT1). Acceptance above 6446 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6467 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6496 (FUT), the bottom of the gap, under sustained buying pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6412.

• Break and hold above 6412 would target 6446 / 6467 / 6496

• Holding below 6412 would target 6370 / 6345 / 6328

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 33.74 and 28.36. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6496 with VIX below 28.36 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6328 with VIX above 33.74 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

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Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

The pattern over the last couple of weeks has been early strength followed by late-week weakness, and this week once again repeated the pattern. Monday’s session kicked off with an immediate attempt at downside continuation that failed below the Monthly Extreme Low at 6511 after a significant news-driven move higher overnight, which came 7 handles shy of the weekly resistance area between 6755 and 6785. The HTF level at 6692 then capped the upside in the RTH session, marking the high of the week.

Last week, we discussed locations that were unfavorable to chase shorts (below 6511) and that better short opportunities would occur if the market saw an immediate rally, attempted to reclaim a key resistance area, and then failed. Late sellers got smashed below 6511, while patient traders found better trade locations higher to reload.

Tuesday opened on a true gap down, which was filled during the session, while Wednesday opened on a true gap up that was also filled. Wednesday’s true gap provided an excellent look-above-and-fail setup from an order flow perspective when buyers failed above the overnight high (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Heading into Thursday, the auction was in a 5-day balance, and we noted in the plan that both the 5D and 20D VPOCs had converged within Wednesday’s range. The market was coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high volume nodes.

Sellers triggered a directional move on Thursday, forming a double distribution trend day to the downside. This was followed by another double distribution trend day on Friday, following a sustained true gap down.

Friday’s session closed 295 handles below the Monthly VWAP and 223 handles below the most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the week at 6635. Additionally, the Monthly Extreme Low at 6511 was breached. Trading well below these value references and extremes creates a very complex situation in the short-term. Even though sellers are firmly in control of the auction across all time frames, it’s not optimal to chase shorts. That said, if early attempts at downside continuation fail, a short-covering rally could be triggered, reflecting an inventory correction. Stay nimble.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 6495.75
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 6704.75
🟥 Monthly: OTFD → Ends at: 6911.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is to monitor whether sellers can maintain downside momentum following late-week weakness, which kicked off with a directional move from the high volume node at 6635. Immediate focus is on Friday’s double distribution trend day, which formed after a sustained true gap down, with single prints at 6446.

A weak response would see value building within Friday’s range, accepting the move from value and rejecting attempts to reclaim the 6520.25 gap. This would open the door to a bearish continuation, primarily targeting a 10% correction.

Failure to do so, with Friday’s gap failing to hold and price accepting back within Thursday’s range, would set the stage for a return to 6635, the pivotal high volume node that buyers need to reclaim to potentially shift the tone in the auction.

Be observant: The auction has moved significantly away from multiple value references, meaning an immediate downside continuation that fails could trigger a notable short-covering rally.

The weekly Smashlevel is 6446, a HTF level aligning with Friday’s halfback and single prints. Break and hold above 6446 would target the unfilled gap at 6520. Acceptance above 6520 would signal strength and open the door to a move into the resistance area between 6605 and the Weekly Extreme High at 6635, where selling activity can be expected. Both the short-term value (5D VPOC) and medium-term value (20D VPOC) are located at 6635, acting as an upside magnet in the absence of sustained weakness.

Holding below 6446 would maintain downside pressure and target the 10% correction level for SPX at 6345 and ES at 6328. Acceptance below 6328 would signal further weakness and open the door for a bearish continuation toward the support area between 6250 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6220, where buying activity can be expected. Take note that the February 2025 high is located below at 6166, a crucial HTF area to monitor moving forward.

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6446.

• Break and hold above 6446 would target 6520 / 6605 / 6635* / 6692 / 6764

• Holding below 6446 would target 6345-28 / 6250 / 6220* / 6166 / 6081

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s session settled within the high volume node at 6635, where both the 5D and 20D VPOC are located, areas from which directional moves are typically initiated, as discussed. During the overnight session, sellers attempted to gain control by repeatedly testing the Smashlevel at 6631, marking last week’s value area low. Buyers were initially responsive within Wednesday’s excess low; however, they ultimately failed to hold it, resulting in downside pressure, which increased following a break of the initial downside target at 6611.

The overnight weakness led to a true gap down open in the RTH session, completely outside the prior day’s range. As always, a lack of immediate downside continuation generally triggers an inventory correction. The gap was filled in the A-period, and once filled, the key is whether buyers can gain traction within the prior day’s range, signaling a bullish outcome. Failure to do so would keep sellers in control, as the shift in tone from opening below the prior day’s range would not be negated. Note the poor high formed at today’s high, with momentum buyers stuck in a poor location, failing to gain traction within Wednesday’s range. Change then took place in the F-period, when sellers successfully initiated an initial balance breakdown, forming single prints. The final downside target at 6544 was reached in the I-period, and an elevated VIX that held above its resistance level during the afternoon session contributed to continued downside pressure.

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The auction was coiling for a directional move from the high volume node at 6635, initiated today by sellers, who established a triple distribution trend day to the downside. The big after-hours move was notably retraced almost instantly. The key to monitor now is today’s distributions to gauge the strength or weakness of the auction, with immediate attention on 6549.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6580, signaling a return within today’s upper distribution, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6511, opening the door to a downside continuation of today’s imbalance.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6549, the upper end of the lower distribution. Holding below 6549 would maintain downside pressure, targeting 6511 (DT1). Acceptance below 6511 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6470 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6446 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6549 would shift focus to the initial balance low at 6580 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6611 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6549.

• Break and hold above 6549 would target 6580 / 6611

• Holding below 6549 would target 6511 / 6470 / 6446

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 29.54 and 25.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6611 with VIX below 25.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6446 with VIX above 29.54 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Technical issues have been resolved, and hopefully they stay that way. Yesterday after-hours, a massive news-driven move to the upside traversed Monday’s value area before selling activity stepped in. Whenever we get these types of moves, like we did Monday pre-market, the auction tends to digest the move, making trading conditions a bit tricky. Those who missed the move try to join with big expectations of immediate continuation, while others are shorting in hopes that the move gets retraced. In the end, both camps are left disappointed, as the market simply consolidated. Overnight, a distribution formed above Tuesday’s value area, with buyers defending UT1 at 6636. As the plan noted, “Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6636.” This level ended up being pivotal during today’s full session (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened on a true gap up, and the auction immediately showed strength, testing the overnight high (ONH) at 6681. Regular readers of this newsletter know that a failure above the ONH is a solid fade setup when gapping higher, a sequence that generally triggers an inventory correction. What made this setup interesting today was that the ONH was at 6681, just 11 handles shy of the FDT at 6692. This means that if you were not already in a position, the risk-reward profile for chasing an ONH breakout was unappealing.

Combine this context with the VIX testing its support level to the tick at 24.82, and the order flow activity showing a passive seller absorbing aggressive buyers, and you had phenomenal conditions for a short, with well-defined minimal risk. The failure above the ONH led to a reversal worth almost 50 handles (see Figure 2). The rest of the session was balanced, with buyers stepping in on the D-period liquidation break, and sellers defending when buyers attempted to leave value during the I-period. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs have converged, located within this today’s range. The market is coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high volume nodes.

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The auction is currently in balance, forming a 5-day balance and coiling for a directional move. In the short term, today’s Initial Balance low at 6631 is key, aligning with last week’s VAL. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6662, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6611.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6631, today’s Initial Balance low, aligning with last week’s VAL. Holding above 6631 would target today’s opening level at 6662 (UT1). Acceptance above 6662 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6692 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6715 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold above 6631 would shift focus to 6611 (DT1). Acceptance below 6611 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6586 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6544 (FDT), Friday’s spike base, under sustained selling pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6631.

• Holding above 6631 would target 6662 / 6692 / 6715

• Break and hold below 6631 would target 6611 / 6586 / 6544

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.24 and 23.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6715 with VIX below 23.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6544 with VIX above 27.24 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heads up: Experiencing some technical issues today, so it will be levels only. Should be resolved by tomorrow. Thank you for your understanding.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6636, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6586.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6611.

• Break and hold above 6611 would target 6636 / 6658 / 6692

• Holding below 6611 would target 6586 / 6544 / 6511

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 29.08 and 24.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6692 with VIX below 24.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6511 with VIX above 29.08 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

In the Weekly Plan, we discussed what a poor trade location would look like, with one example being shorting an immediate downside move as sellers attempt to break the 6511 level, marking the Monthly Extreme Low. The overnight session gapped lower, opening at 6510, where a short-covering rally of roughly 50 handles immediately unfolded. The failure of buyers to defend 6544 (DT1) then led to pre-open weakness, before news headlines triggered a significant move higher that almost tagged the weekly resistance area between 6755 and 6785.

The RTH session opened on a true gap up above all intraday upside targets, which is always a tricky environment to trade given that significant ground has already been covered. I’m typically less involved during these sessions, as they tend to be quite lackluster while the auction digests the move. Today’s session did, however, provide a few opportunities at our levels of interest. The final upside target at 6643 (FDT) marked the gap fill, offering a classic A-period reversal. The VIX held around and below the 24.62 support at the time, which added confidence for a short-term gap-fill reversal. Change took place in the E-period, ending the intraday one-time framing up and triggering a liquidation break that led to a test of 6616 (UT1), where buyers stepped in. An afternoon rally ultimately failed to retrace the earlier liquidation, resulting in closing weakness. Buyers notably struggled to gain traction above Wednesday’s spike area today.

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A monster move overnight resulted in a RTH session that was consolidating and digesting the move. Buyers failed to sustain the true gap up, and the session closed back within Friday’s range. Notably, Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6616 acted as support today to the tick, forming a weak low.

The key to monitor now is whether sellers can gain meaningful traction within Friday’s upper distribution, which would open the door to continue and retrace the overnight move. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6658, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold of 6581.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6616, today’s weak low. Holding above 6616 would target today’s opening level at 6658 (UT1). Acceptance above 6658 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6692 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6715 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold above 6616 would shift focus to 6581 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6544 (FDT), Friday’s spike base, under sustained selling pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6616.

• Holding above 6616 would target 6658 / 6692 / 6715

• Break and hold below 6616 would target 6581 / 6544

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 28.26 and 24.04. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6715 with VIX below 24.04 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6544 with VIX above 28.26 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.