Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with responsive buyers at the key 7485 level on Monday. This ultimately led to a fill of the gap at 7548.25, where sellers stepped in, resulting in a classic gap-fill reversal (see Figure 1). A double distribution profile was established as the auction rotated back to the 7485 level.

Monday’s trend day was rejected on Tuesday, and buyers attempted to gain acceptance back above the key 7548 level on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but without meaningful success. By monitoring order flow, we could observe consistent absorption as aggressive buyers were absorbed by passive sellers above 7548 during both sessions (see Figure 2).

Change took place on Thursday as the auction established a true gap down after rejecting the 7548 level overnight. Downside momentum stalled at the 7420 level, a composite high volume node, but sellers had once again initiated a directional move. The key heading into Friday’s session was whether the move would gain acceptance or be rejected.

Friday kicked off with responsive buyers, partially filling Thursday’s gap before running into passive sellers. Aggressive buyers lacked the size needed to push through the passive liquidity, resulting in a reversal and a close at session lows (see Figure 3).

The auction has established a 2-day balance, now of short-term interest. The key question is whether sellers can continue to accept lower prices following Thursday’s gap lower and maintain downside pressure.

If you are trading NQ, the relative weakness is evident, as NQ has already reached its June 9 lows. It’s worth monitoring how NQ behaves around its multi-week balance low, as this could provide directional clues for ES.

Additionally, I shared an HTF level for NQ a while ago at 27930. Notably, it aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (see Figure 4), making it a level worth monitoring should it be tested.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 2-day → High: 7496.50 / Low: 7411.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 11-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Thursday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled at 7525.25 and marked the breakdown from the multi-day balance area.

Friday’s attempt to fill the gap immediately found responsive sellers, and the auction has now established a 2-day balance that is of short-term interest.

Value building below the prior multi-day balance area would maintain downside pressure and keep the door open for a revisit of the multi-week balance low.

Failure to do so would set the stage for another attempt to fill Thursday’s gap; however, to meaningfully shift the tone, acceptance back into Wednesday’s range is required.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7485, a pivotal level over the past 11 weeks. Break and hold above 7485 targets the unfilled gap at 7525. Acceptance above 7525 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7600 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7630, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area is crucial for sellers to defend in order to prevent a multi-week balance breakout.

Holding below 7485 would be a short-term bearish development, targeting Thursday’s VAL at 7426. Acceptance below 7426 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward 7360, as well as the support area between 7280 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7250, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the current multi-week balance lows, is crucial for buyers to defend. A break of the multi-week balance low would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7485.

• Break and hold above 7485 would target 7525 / 7600 / 7630* / 7648 / 7735

• Holding below 7485 would target 7426 / 7360 / 7280 / 7250* / 7200

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Following both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions, notable order flow activity was observed around the 7548 level, within Thursday range from last week. Aggressive buyers were consistently absorbed by passive sellers. Absorption alone does not necessarily imply a reversal, but seeing it repeatedly at a key area that buyers needed to reclaim to negate last week’s shift in tone was meaningful market-generated information. Overnight, 7548 (Smashlevel) was tested and rejected early, marking the high of today’s notably weak session. During the European session, the auction built value below 7530 (DT1), signaling intraday weakness, while the VIX held above its resistance level at 17.52, adding bearish confluence. The final downside target at 7485 (FDT) was tagged and exceeded ahead of the RTH session.

The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, 30 handles below 7485 (FDT). When RTH opens above FUT, or below FDT, I typically take a defensive approach, meaning I’m cautious about chasing price. Regular readers know that a failure below the overnight low (ONL) is a solid fade setup when gapping lower, a sequence that often triggers an inventory correction. That setup ultimately played out today during A-period. It’s not necessarily something you have to trade, but at a minimum, it serves as a reason to avoid initiating shorts early in the session.

The best trade setup emerged during the A-period, following the retest of 7485 (FDT), with VIX holding well above its resistance. Contextually, failure to reclaim 7485, combined with an elevated VIX, would have maintained the potential for further weakness. Additionally, an inventory correction is not bullish unless acceptance is established back within the prior day’s range, which would negate the attempt to shift the tone initiated by sellers. Sellers stepped in at 7485, keeping this week’s inventory trapped and leading to another leg lower. In the process, the long-term value area (90D VPOC) was tagged, where downside momentum stalled.

Session Recap

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The key 7548 level was tagged overnight, marking today’s high, after which notable weakness followed. The auction subsequently established a true gap lower, with sellers once again initiating a directional move. The key now is whether this move gains acceptance or is rejected. As always, levels provide the framework for gauging the state of the market.

The immediate level of interest for assessing directional conviction is today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH) at 7478, which aligns closely with today’s VAH and FS VWAP.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1), today’s VAL, where notable aggressive selling activity was absorbed.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7457, today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH). Holding below 7457 maintains downside pressure, targeting today’s VAL at 7426 (DT1). Acceptance below 7426 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7457 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7457.

• Break and hold above 7457 would target 7485 / 7525

• Holding below 7457 would target 7426 / 7403 / 7362

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.72 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.72 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The 7548 level was a key reference heading into the week and has continued to play a significant role in the auction throughout the week. It’s important for obvious reasons, as it marks the lower end of last week’s upper distribution. It was also interesting from a short-term perspective given Tuesday’s notable order flow activity around the level. Overnight, sellers stepped in at 7547, triggering a rotation lower. The auction consolidated between the key levels 7530 (DT1) and 7510 (DT2) heading into the RTH session.

The 7548 level was revisited during the Initial Balance, once again attracting selling activity within Thursday’s range. The subsequent pullback retested 7530 perfectly, where responsive buyers stepped in. Defending 7530 kept the path open for another attempt at 7548, which ultimately unfolded. During Tuesday’s session, we observed notable absorption around the 7548 level, and today, passive sellers continued to absorb aggressive buyers within Thursday’s range, resulting in another close below 7548. This is a tricky short-term environment, made even more challenging by the fact that both the 5D VPOC and 20D VPOC sit at 7546. Stay nimble.

Session Recap

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From a contextual standpoint, not much has changed in the short term. Passive sellers continue to prevent acceptance back into Thursday’s range, while the auction continues to print higher highs and higher lows. Levels of interest remain unchanged.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), Thursday’s VAL, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7530 (DT1), today’s halfback, trapping today’s buying effort in the process.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7548, Thursday’s low. Holding below 7548 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7530 (DT1). Acceptance below 7530 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7510 (DT2), with 7485 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7548 shifts focus to Thursday’s VAL at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7548.

• Break and hold above 7548 would target 7578 / 7605

• Holding below 7548 would target 7530 / 7510 / 7485

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.52 and 15.78 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 15.78 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7485 with VIX above 17.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers made early attempts at downside continuation overnight by breaking below Monday’s lower distribution. Both attempts ultimately failed to break the multi-day balance low, instead triggering responsive buyers and a rotation higher. Sellers initially defended 7497 (Smashlevel), but once buyers reclaimed the level and negated the most bearish scenario, we got a great move toward 7530 (UT1), where sellers stepped in. 7530 proved to be a solid level, producing good reactions overnight (ON high: 7530.25) and early in RTH.

The upside was capped by 7530 almost to the tick during the A-period (7530.25), with VIX simultaneously testing its support level at 17.58, providing great confluence. If we have to nitpick, the ideal scenario would have been a stronger probe above 7530 before reversing, rather than simply tagging the overnight high to the tick. As outlined in the plan, reclaiming 7530 was bullish intraday, and once buyers gained traction above the level, it opened the door to a revisit of 7548 (FUT). It was interesting to observe how the VIX lost its support level at 17.58 before buyers triggered continuation above 7530. The 7548 level capped today’s upside, which should come as no surprise since it’s a crucial short-term inflection point.

Keep in mind that reclaiming a level and shifting the “intraday state” to bullish does not mean buyers have regained control of the auction overall. It simply means the door is open to bullish continuation intraday. Contextually, buyers still need to reclaim 7548 to negate Friday’s shift in tone (see Figure 1), so these concepts should not be conflated.

Session Recap

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Monday’s double distribution trend day was rejected today, triggering a rotation back toward last week’s gap area.

While buyers were in firm control of today’s auction, acceptance back above 7548, where notable buying effort was observed today, is still required to negate Friday’s shift in tone, which has yet to be achieved.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), Thursday’s VAL, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7530 (DT1), today’s halfback, trapping today’s buying effort in the process.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7548, Thursday’s low. Holding below 7548 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7530 (DT1). Acceptance below 7530 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7510 (DT2), with 7485 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7548 shifts focus to Thursday’s VAL at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7548.

• Break and hold above 7548 would target 7578 / 7605

• Holding below 7548 would target 7530 / 7510 / 7485

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.02 and 16.08 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 16.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7485 with VIX above 18.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with an immediate test of 7485 (Smashlevel), where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 1). The 7485 level is a composite LVN, separating two distinct distributions formed by trading activity over the past three months (see Figure 2). From there, 7512 (UT1) was tested, where sellers responded. The auction consolidated between these two key references during the Asian session, but once Europe opened, buyers managed to reclaim 7512, triggering further upside continuation.

RTH opened near Friday’s VAH, and buyers effectively filled Friday’s true gap at 7548.25 during the A-period. Acceptance back into Thursday’s range would be a sign of strength, which is why it was not surprising to see responsive sellers emerge within the gap area. After the notable A-period excess formed, the auction was building value within Friday’s value area. If you recall, unchanged or lower value development relative to Friday’s session would be a bearish development.

Buyers managed to defend 7512 during the morning session, but ultimately lost control of the level in the afternoon, leading to a revisit of the key 7485 level and the formation of a double distribution profile. (Single prints are not visible on this chart due to the higher tick increment). A textbook Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup unfolded after exhaustion below the key 7485 level during the closing session (see Figure 3). The K-period single prints attracted sellers on the subsequent bounce, and the session closed at its lows.

Session Recap

Note how pivotal the VIX support level at 17.68 proved to be today.

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We kick off the week with responsive buying overnight off Friday’s opening level, effectively filling Friday’s true gap during RTH before sellers reloaded.

A double distribution trend day formed with unchanged value, suggesting sellers are doing a good job so far of accepting lower prices following Friday’s “shift in tone” represented by the gap lower.

A weak market would involve sellers maintaining acceptance below the 7497 level, which separates today’s double distribution.

Acceptance back into the upper distribution would maintain two-sided trade, while buyers would need acceptance back into Thursday’s range to negate Friday’s shift in tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7530 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7460 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7497, today’s LVN. Holding below 7497 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7460 (DT1), with the HVN at 7420 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7497 shifts focus to 7530 (UT1), with 7548 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7497.

• Break and hold above 7497 would target 7530 / 7548

• Holding below 7497 would target 7460 / 7420

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.58 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7548 with VIX below 17.58 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7420 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into Friday, the auction had developed a 12-day balance area, within which a 5-day balance had formed. On Friday, a breakdown from the 5-day balance was initiated overnight, triggering a test of the lower end of the larger balance, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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Sellers are attempting to shift the short-term tone following Friday’s true gap lower by moving the auction away from the HVN at 7590, which has represented fair value over the past three weeks. The key now is to monitor whether downside continuation develops or fails to materialize.

Unchanged or lower value would be a bearish development, while failure to maintain acceptance below Friday’s gap area would signal strength.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7512 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7460 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7485, Friday’s opening level and also a low volume node (LVN) within this multi-week balance area. Holding above 7485 targets Friday’s FS VWAP at 7512 (UT1). Acceptance above 7512 would signal intraday strength, targeting the unfilled gap at 7548 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7485 shifts focus to the 6/29 VAL at 7460 (DT1), with the HVN at 7420 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7485.

• Holding above 7485 would target 7512 / 7548 / 7578

• Break and hold below 7485 would target 7460 / 7420

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.86 and 17.68 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 17.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7420 with VIX above 19.86 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, as buyers were unable to build value above the prior week’s VAH at 7605, failing to confirm the breakout attempt from Friday, July 10. The 7605 level provided an short opportunities both overnight and during the RTH session (see Figure 1). The daily timeframe shifted from one-time framing up back into balance heading into Tuesday.

Tuesday’s session established an inside day, suggesting that little had changed from a contextual standpoint. On Wednesday, buyers reclaimed 7605 and established value above the level, signaling strength and opening the door to a breakout attempt. The Smashlevel for the session at 7576 proved pivotal, marking the point from which a strong intraday reversal unfolded (see Figure 2).

On Thursday, a failed breakout attempt developed overnight, triggering weakness and leading buyers to lose control of the key 7605 level. During the RTH session, an interesting absorption sequence played out when buyers attempted to reclaim 7605. Notable aggressive buying was absorbed by passive sellers around 7612 (see Figure 3).

Heading into Friday, the auction had developed a 12-day balance area, within which a 5-day balance had formed. On Friday, a breakdown from the 5-day balance was initiated overnight, triggering a test of the lower end of the larger balance, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 4).

Friday’s true gap at 7548.25 will be a key reference point moving forward. Acceptance below it would open the door to continued downside pressure in the short term, while failure to gain acceptance below it would signal weak sellers.

Weekly Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 13-day → High: 7626.25 / Low: 7469.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 9-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled (7548.25) and resulted in the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile.

While both the daily and weekly timeframes remain in balance, sellers are attempting to shift the short-term tone by pushing price away from the HVN at 7590, the area that has represented fair value over the past three weeks.

A weak market would see the auction continue to build acceptance within Friday’s range, making the gap area a key reference for sellers to defend. This would increase the probability of a multi-day balance breakdown, opening the door to a traverse of the prior balance area from late June.

Failure to do so, implying rejection of Friday’s gap and acceptance back within Thursday’s range, would signal strength and suggest that Friday’s weakness was driven by long liquidation rather than stronger selling interest.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7485, Friday’s opening level and a low volume node (LVN) within this multi-week balance area. Holding above 7485 targets Friday’s true gap at 7548. Acceptance above 7548 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7630 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7660, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area, which includes the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648.75 and the SPX-equivalent ATH at 7660 ES (SPX 7620), is crucial for sellers to defend in order to prevent a multi-week balance breakout.

Break and hold below 7485 would be a short-term bearish development, targeting the high volume node (HVN) at 7420. Acceptance below 7420 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7365 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7335, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the prior multi-day balance lows, is crucial for buyers to defend to avoid a revisit of the current multi-week balance lows. A break of the multi-week balance low would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7485.

• Holding above 7485 would target 7548 / 7630 / 7660* / 7735 / 7800

• Break and hold below 7485 would target 7420 / 7365 / 7335* / 7300 / 7250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A breakout attempt from the multi-day balance was in play and materialized overnight as buyers initiated price discovery above 7626 (UT1). However, the move failed to gain acceptance, resulting in a Look Above and Fail (LAAF). The lack of initiative buying at the balance highs attracted responsive sellers, and weakness followed, which is to be expected when a move from balance fails.

The RTH session opened within last week’s value area, and 7578 (DT1) was tested and defended early on following a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of both 7578 and the overnight low at 7580.50. The VIX provided strong confluence during this sequence, testing its resistance level at 16.48. Buyers then tried to regain acceptance above the crucial 7605 level, but notable aggressive buying was absorbed by passive sellers around 7612 (see Figure 1). This absorption sequence was particularly interesting given the overnight session’s failed breakout attempt. The failure to move price higher despite notable buying effort ultimately fueled downside continuation, with all downside targets cleared down to 7556 (FDT), where buyers stepped in. Monday’s poor low was cleaned up in the process.

Session Recap

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Responsive two-sided trade continues to define the auction following the failed breakout attempt overnight. While the daily timeframe has established a 12-day balance area, a 5-day balance has developed inside the larger balance.

In the short term, I will monitor the ability of buyers to regain acceptance within today’s value area. Failure to do so would suggest continued downside pressure, while keeping in mind that the auction remains in balance.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, today’s morning support and closing resistance. Holding below 7578 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7556 (DT1). Acceptance below 7556 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7532 (DT2), with 7515 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7578 shifts focus to last week’s VAH at 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting the poor high at 7626 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.

• Holding above 7578 would target 7605 / 7626 / 7648

• Break and hold below 7578 would target 7556 / 7532 / 7515

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.58 and 15.86 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7515 with VIX above 17.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick Update: Price rotated around last week’s VAH at 7605 (UT1) throughout most of the overnight session, making for a rather uneventful overnight trade. However, this was a bullish development, as value was established above both Monday’s and Tuesday’s value areas.

Trading activity during the RTH session was also rather lackluster, initially holding between the key levels of 7605 (UT1) and 7625 (UT2). The auction formed a poor high during the Initial Balance at the multi-day balance high, which led to a counter-auction lower. The weakness that followed opened the door to the best opportunity of the day, when 7576 (Smashlevel) was tested in the F and G-periods, finding responsive buyers. As we’ve discussed, a meaningful change in tone requires acceptance outside of last week’s value area between 7605 and 7532. Today’s session essentially built value above 7605, so it remains to be seen whether a proper breakout attempt is on deck.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established value above last week’s VAH at 7605, located at the upper end of the current multi-day balance area, after quickly rejecting the dip during the F and G-periods.

Nothing has changed contextually: building value above 7605 is a sign of strength, opening the door to a breakout attempt and effectively completing today’s bullish imbalance in the process. Rejection of today’s value suggests the auction is not yet ready for a directional move.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7626 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7578 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7605, last week’s VAH. Holding above 7605 signals stability and targets the poor high at 7626 (UT1). Acceptance above 7626 would signal intraday strength, targeting the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648 (UT2), with 7664 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7605 shifts focus to 7578 (DT1), with 7556 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7605.

• Holding above 7605 would target 7626 / 7648 / 7664

• Break and hold below 7605 would target 7578 / 7556

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.48 and 14.86 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7664 with VIX below 14.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7556 with VIX above 16.48 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Overnight, the auction came down and tested last week’s VAL at 7532 (DT1), where buyers stepped in responsively. Despite exploring below Monday’s and Friday’s lows, the overnight VPOC developed above 7551 (Smashlevel), at 7557. Last week’s VAH at 7605, a level highlighted in the Weekly Plan, was revisited following the CPI release, where sellers stepped in.

The upside was capped by the 7605 level in the RTH session, while sellers were unable to explore below Monday’s and Friday’s lows, unlike during the overnight session, making the RTH session rather uneventful. Notably, every test of the VIX support level at 16.32 was met with selling pressure in ES. Overall, today’s session had a bullish tone, as value was established above the Weekly VWAP at 7582 and above 7579 (UT1). The inability of sellers to generate downside follow-through after Friday’s Look Above and Fail (LAAF) signaled a lack of selling conviction. The market did see a traverse of last week’s value area overnight, but that was essentially it.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established an inside day, suggesting that not much has changed from a contextual standpoint. The auction remains in balance, now forming a 10-day balance area while awaiting further market-generated information. PPI is on deck tomorrow.

A meaningful change in tone requires acceptance outside of last week’s value area, which also represents the value area of the current multi-day balance, between 7605 and 7532. This has yet to occur.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7576, today’s VAL. Holding above 7576 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7625 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7576 shifts focus to today’s inside-day low at 7556 (DT1), with 7532 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7576.

• Holding above 7576 would target 7605 / 7625 / 7648

• Break and hold below 7576 would target 7556 / 7532

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.32 and 15.68 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7532 with VIX above 17.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Buyers struggled to gain meaningful traction above 7605 (Smashlevel) overnight, opening the door to weakness as Friday’s breakout attempt from balance came under immediate pressure. In the process, Friday’s rather large excess low was revisited, where responsive buyers emerged following a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7579 (DT1).

The 7605 level was revisited ahead of the RTH open and tested again shortly after the open, where sellers stepped in. The morning session was marked by responsive sellers on attempts to reclaim 7605, and buyers stepping in at the 7579 level. The failed breakout scenario in play was accompanied by VIX holding above its resistance level at 15.78, adding downside pressure.

The change took place in the G-period, once 7579 was breached and then reoffered. Following this, buyers were unable to reclaim the Initial Balance low, ultimately leading to a tag of the HVN at 7556 (FDT), which was the downside magnet following the failure to sustain Friday’s breakout. A return to this HVN provided a great opportunity to book profits if short, making it an unfavorable location to initiate new shorts. There was notable order flow activity around the 7556 level (see Figure 1), and aggressive sellers entering at this unfavorable location were squeezed into the close.

Session Recap

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Today’s session was a great example of auction dynamics: markets transition from balance to imbalance, but when the imbalance fails, price often returns to the prior balance area where value was established, in this case, the HVN at 7556.

The key question now is whether the failed breakout will lead to a rotation toward the opposite side of the range, or whether buyers can invalidate this expected behavior.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7579 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7532 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7551, today’s poor/weak low. Holding above 7551 signals stability and targets 7579 (UT1). Acceptance above 7579 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7605 (UT2), with 7625 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7551 shifts focus to last week’s VAL at 7532 (DT1). Acceptance below 7532 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7515 (DT2), with 7497 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7551.

• Holding above 7551 would target 7579 / 7605 / 7625

• Break and hold below 7551 would target 7532 / 7515 / 7497

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.02 and 16.32 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7625 with VIX below 16.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7497 with VIX above 18.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Heading into Friday’s session, the auction had developed a 7-day balance area. Buyers ultimately initiated a breakout from balance, with the intraday levels working exceptionally well throughout the session. See Figure 1 for a brief recap.

Session Recap

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As with any breakout from balance, the key now is to monitor for continuation or lack thereof. A good way to gauge the conviction behind the breakout is by monitoring the auction’s behavior around last week’s VAH at 7605, which aligns with the multi-day balance highs.

Acceptance above 7605 increases the odds of a move toward the all-time highs, while a failure to build meaningful value above 7605 would signal rejection of higher prices and open the door to a return to value, in this case the HVN at 7556.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7625 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7579 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7605, last week’s VAH. Holding above 7605 signals stability and targets Friday’s spike base at 7625 (UT1). Acceptance above 7625 would signal intraday strength, targeting the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648 (UT2), with 7666 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, a failure to hold 7605 shifts focus to Friday’s excess base at 7579 (DT1), with the HVN at 7556 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7605.

• Holding above 7605 would target 7625 / 7648 / 7666

• Break and hold below 7605 would target 7579 / 7556

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.78 and 14.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7666 with VIX below 14.28 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7556 with VIX above 15.78 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with strength on Monday as buyers reclaimed the prior week’s VPOC at 7556 (see Figure 1) and attempted to break out of the 3-day balance area that had formed during that same week.

Monday’s breakout attempt ultimately failed on Tuesday after the auction failed to gain acceptance above the prior week’s VAH at 7578 (see Figure 2). During the afternoon session, a clear absorption sequence developed, with aggressive buyers repeatedly absorbed by passive sellers, ultimately leading to closing weakness (see Figure 3).

Heading into Wednesday’s session, the Smashlevel (intraday pivot) was the prior weekly VPOC at 7556, which buyers needed to reclaim while defending the crucial 7534 level. Buyers successfully defended 7534 early overnight, triggering a strong responsive move higher (see Figure 4). However, the level was ultimately breached a couple of hours later following news headlines, leading to the RTH session opening on a true gap down (see Figure 5).

Despite Wednesday opening on a true gap down, sellers were unable to capitalize on the weakness, as they failed to gain meaningful downside traction below the prior week’s VAL at 7497 (Weekly Smashlevel).

Buyers needed a reclaim of the 7534 level on Thursday to signal strength, which they achieved overnight by building value above it (see Figure 6).

The 7534 level was retested during Thursday’s RTH session, a sequence in which aggressive sellers became trapped, resulting in a squeeze (see Figure 7). Thursday ultimately formed a double distribution trend day.

Heading into Friday’s session, the auction had developed a 7-day balance area. Buyers ultimately initiated a breakout from balance, with the intraday levels working exceptionally well throughout the session (see Figure 8 for a brief recap).

As with any breakout from balance, the key now is whether buyers can sustain continuation. Continued acceptance above the breakout area would target the all-time highs, while a failure to sustain the breakout would open the door to a traverse of last week’s value area.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7552.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 9-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Friday’s breakout from the multi-day balance area. A breakout from balance is only the first step; the real test is whether the auction can transition from two-sided trade into imbalance by building value at higher prices. Early-week value development relative to last week’s VAH at 7605 will provide directional clues.

A strong response would be buyers holding above 7605 and building value there, confirming that the breakout has gained acceptance and increasing the probability of a move toward the all-time highs.

A weak response would be buyers failing to hold and build value above 7605, suggesting the breakout lacks conviction and increasing the odds of a rotation back into the previous balance range.

Keep in mind: while the daily timeframe is one-time framing up, the weekly timeframe remains in balance. This creates a tricky situation as the auction approaches the weekly balance highs.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7605, last week’s VAH, which aligns with the multi-day balance high. Holding above 7605 and accepting the breakout targets the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648. Note: The SPX ATH is at 7620, equivalent to 7666 in ES, and is worth monitoring. Acceptance above 7648 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7735 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7765, where selling activity can be expected.

Such a move would effectively complete the 100% balance extension of the multi-day balance area. Additionally, a notable HTF level is located at 7735, adding another layer of significance to this resistance area.

Break and hold below 7605 would be a short-term bearish development, targeting last week’s VAL at 7532. Acceptance below 7532 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7475 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7445, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the multi-day balance low, is crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would increase the odds of a revisit to the current multi-week balance low.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7605.

• Holding above 7605 would target 7648 / 7735 / 7765* / 7800 / 7840

• Break and hold below 7605 would target 7532 / 7475 / 7445* / 7360 / 7300

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

As discussed, Wednesday’s session explored prices below last week’s VAL at 7497 following a true gap down, but sellers failed to gain meaningful traction. As a result, a reversal unfolded, filling the gap and suggesting a lack of stronger sellers. Overnight, buyers defended the lower end of Wednesday’s afternoon consolidation at 7515 (Smashlevel), indicating that new buyers were willing to support the market following Wednesday’s short-covering reversal. Buyers reclaimed 7534 (UT1) and built value above it ahead of the RTH open.

The RTH session opened on a true gap up, making Wednesday’s RTH high, which aligned with the 7534 level, a key area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold this area would negate the shift in tone created by the auction opening outside of the prior day’s range. The gap was filled in the A-period, after which aggressive sellers were absorbed by passive buyers, resulting in a reversal (see Figure 1). Order flow showed aggressive selling effort failing to produce downside continuation into an area of interest, providing an opportunity to fade the sellers and align with the direction of the true gap up.

It was crucial for buyers that the auction did not find acceptance back within the prior day’s range. When 7534 was revisited in the B-period, sellers had an opportunity to shift control. This attempt failed, and instead a poor low formed, which became the RTH low. The auction completed the move to all upside targets, reaching 7578 (FUT), and with VIX dropping below its support at 16.10, the auction continued to grind higher.

Session Recap

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Today’s session developed into a double distribution trend day, leaving behind single prints in the D-period, following Wednesday’s failure to gain acceptance below last week’s value area. The auction has returned to Monday’s value, located at the upper end of the current 7-day balance area.

Keep it simple: continued value building above last week’s VAH at 7578 sets the stage for a breakout attempt, while a failure to see initiative activity will rotate the auction back to value.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, last week’s VAH. Holding above 7578 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7632 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, a failure to hold 7578 shifts focus to the HVN at 7556 (DT1), with 7534 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.

• Holding above 7578 would target 7605 / 7632 / 7648

• Break and hold below 7578 would target 7556 / 7534

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.64 and 15.04. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.04 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7534 with VIX above 16.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a test of 7534 (DT1), where responsive buyers emerged. Order flow showed signs of seller exhaustion into 7534, after which aggressive buyers stepped in and triggered a 30-handle reversal to test 7556 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1).

However, failure to gain acceptance above 7556 led to a rotation back to 7534 heading into the European session. Shortly after the European open, a news-driven liquidation break unfolded, with price tagging and ultimately exceeding the Final Downside Target at 7497 (FDT) (see Figure 2). VIX spiked higher, breaking its resistance level at 16.94, a level that later proved pivotal during RTH. The poor structure from the drop got fills ahead of the open, with buyers reclaiming 7497, but VIX remained elevated.

The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, and buyers initially controlled the opening level. However, they were unable to complete the gap fill, which would have required a tag of Tuesday’s RTH low, while VIX slowly approached its broken resistance at 16.94. Change took place in the C-period, as sellers extended the Initial Balance to the downside. The overnight lows were revisited, from which a V-shaped reversal developed, ultimately leading to a return to the 7534 level, which proved pivotal today. The gap was filled in the process.

Session Recap

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Sellers completed a full traverse of last week’s value area following the news-driven overnight weakness. However, acceptance below last week’s VAL at 7497 was lacking, and the true gap down was filled after a poor low formed, something stronger sellers likely would not have allowed. The auction currently lacks directional conviction, so remaining nimble is important.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7534 (UT1), today’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), opening the door for a directional move away from value.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7515, the afternoon support (see Figure 3). Holding above 7515 targets 7534 (UT1). Acceptance above 7534 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7556 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, a failure to hold 7515 shifts focus to last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), with 7470 (FDT), today’s poor low, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7515.

• Holding above 7515 would target 7534 / 7556 / 7578

• Break and hold below 7515 would target 7497 / 7470

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.70 and 16.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 16.10 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7470 with VIX above 17.70 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Monday’s balance breakout attempt was immediately negated overnight, as price rotated lower and retraced nearly the entire Monday session after failing to attract responsive buyers at 7578 (Smashlevel). The auction then rotated around 7578 heading into the RTH session.

Sellers immediately gained control of the 7578 level during the RTH session, triggering logical weakness as trapped inventory from Monday came under pressure. When an auction attempts to break out of balance and fails, it often returns to value. That is precisely what occurred during the weakness that followed. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, representing short-term and medium-term value, have converged within today’s range.

Downside momentum stalled at the final downside target at 7534 (FDT), a good area to book profits on shorts rather than initiate new short positions. The VIX was hovering around its resistance level at the time as well.

The D-period printed an inside bar, and the E-period looked below that structure and failed, testing 7534 in the process and triggering a squeeze higher. The bounce was then absorbed by passive sellers, with the inability to continue higher leading to closing liquidation (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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The auction was not ready to transition from balance into imbalance, resulting in a rotation back to value during today’s session. A 5-day balance has now developed as the market awaits additional market-generated information.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), last week’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7534 (DT1), opening the door to complete a traverse of last week’s value area.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7556, the M-period high. Holding below 7556 targets 7534 (DT1), with 7497 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7556 shifts focus to last week’s VAH at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7556.

• Break and hold above 7556 would target 7578 / 7605

• Holding below 7556 would target 7534 / 7497

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.94 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7497 with VIX above 16.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened within Thursday’s Initial Balance range, suggesting that many traders from Thursday’s value area were trapped. If you recall, we already noted after Thursday’s session that despite the weakness, stronger sellers were absent. Why? Because stronger sellers would likely have been able to gain traction within the prior multi-day balance area. Instead, a poor low formed, suggesting that Thursday’s weakness was primarily driven by weak-handed longs. The auction’s ability to build value above last week’s VPOC at 7556 (UT1) was a clue that confirmed the absence of stronger sellers today.

Buyers defended 7556 (UT1) early in RTH, built value above it, and completed a move to 7587 (FUT) by the D-period (see Figure 1). The 7587 level was unfavorable to chase, as we do not chase the final intraday upside target, and VIX holding above its support level at 15.32 was another factor arguing against chasing. Upside momentum stalled noticeably after tagging 7587, with price going nowhere for several periods. There was significant aggressive selling activity during this period of consolidation, but no downside traction developed. A quick pop failed, resulting in a shallow pullback that buyers quickly absorbed. Thursday’s poor high was cleaned up in the process.

Smashlevels Recap

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Thursday’s long liquidation, which was not driven by stronger sellers as suspected, ultimately served as fuel for upside continuation today. Buyers defended last week’s VPOC at 7556, effectively cleaning up Thursday’s poor high in the process.

Buyers are currently attempting to break out of the 3-day balance area. The immediate level of interest for gauging directional conviction is today’s Afternoon Pullback Low (APBL) at 7678, which aligns closely with last week’s VAH.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), the 100% IB extension, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VPOC at 7556 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, the Afternoon Pullback Low (APBL). Holding above 7578 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7632 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7578 shifts focus to last week’s VPOC at 7556 (DT1), with 7534 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.

• Break and hold above 7578 would target 7605 / 7632 / 7648

• Holding below 7578 would target 7556 / 7534

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.38 and 14.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 14.74 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7534 with VIX above 16.38 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Friday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Thursday’s session was marked by early strength that resulted in a poor high, in confluence with VIX tagging its support level at 15.82, followed by a reversal and subsequent weakness. Responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of the prior multi-day balance, suggesting that despite a weak session, stronger sellers were absent.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a 3-day balance has developed following Tuesday’s breakout, which remains a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7556 (UT1), last week’s VPOC, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, Thursday’s M-period high. Holding below 7534 targets last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), with 7472 (FDT), the afternoon pullback low from Monday, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, a reclaim and hold above 7534 shifts focus to last week’s VPOC at 7556 (UT1), with 7587 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.

• Break and hold above 7534 would target 7556 / 7587

• Holding below 7534 would target 7497 / 7472

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.02 and 15.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7587 with VIX below 15.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7472 with VIX above 17.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with a rally off the key level at 7410, effectively rejecting the closing weakness from the prior week. This ultimately marked the low of the week.

It was interesting to observe how well the VIX levels performed throughout the week, as published in each daily plan. Note the confluence with VIX resistance during Monday’s session, when buyers defended the 7410 level (see Figure 1).

Change took place on Tuesday as buyers built on Monday’s momentum and initiated a breakout from the multi-day balance area.

The Smashlevel for Tuesday was 7490, which was defended by buyers and resulted in a move toward the final upside target at 7560 (FUT) (see Figure 2).

On Wednesday, the VIX resistance level marked the low of the day (see Figure 3), while the VIX support level marked the high of the day on Thursday (see Figure 4).

The auction has ultimately developed into a 3-day balance area after Tuesday’s breakout, and the key in the short term will be to monitor whether buyers can continue to build value above the prior multi-day balance area.

Note Thursday’s b-shaped profile, indicative of long liquidation (see Figure 5). Responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of the prior multi-day balance, suggesting that despite a weak session, stronger sellers were not present.

Also, note last week’s VPOC at 7556 and last week’s VAL at 7497, which also aligns with a HVN. The auction could remain choppy within the 7497–7556 range, while acceptance outside this range may lead to more directional trade.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 3-day → High: 7593.75 / Low: 7479.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 8-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Tuesday’s breakout from the multi-day balance area. Since then, a 3-day balance has developed, with responsive buyers defending the prior balance highs and supporting value at higher prices.

Buyers remain in short-term control following Tuesday’s breakout. A strong response would be continued value building above last week’s VAL at 7497, which aligns with a HVN and the prior multi-day balance highs. This would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

Any acceptance back into the prior multi-day balance would shift short-term momentum and leave a lower-high structure (LH), opening the door to a move toward the balance lows and potentially negating the higher-low (HL) structure.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7497, last week’s VAL, which aligns with a HVN and the prior multi-day balance highs. Holding above 7497 signals stability and targets last week’s VPOC at 7556. Acceptance above 7556 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7640 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7670, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area, which includes the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648.75, is crucial for sellers to defend to prevent a multi-week balance breakout.

Break and hold below 7497 would be a bearish development, targeting the HVN at 7444. Acceptance below 7444 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7390 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7360, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the prior multi-day balance lows, is crucial for buyers to defend to avoid a revisit of the current multi-week balance lows. A break of the multi-week balance low would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7497.

• Holding above 7497 would target 7556 / 7640 / 7670* / 7700 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7497 would target 7444 / 7390 / 7360* / 7300 / 7250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a pullback, cleaning up the structure from Tuesday’s session. The rotation lower was not a surprise, given that Tuesday’s trend day had already tagged the Weekly Extreme High at 7560, a level that is not commonly reached this early in the week. Responsive buyers stepped in within Tuesday’s excess, providing a perfect Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup at 7515 (DT1).

During the RTH session, the test of VIX resistance at 17.28 marked the low of the day, marking the second time this week that a test of VIX resistance has coincided with the session low (see Figure 1). The first occurrence came on Monday. Just as in the overnight session, responsive buyers stepped in at Tuesday’s excess low during the A-period. This LBAF of 7515 produced a solid move to the upside, nearly reaching 7581 (UT2) before upside momentum stalled. The morning strength produced two sets of single prints, both of which were filled during the afternoon session as the market shifted into a more rotational environment. The daily one-time framing up remains intact, implying that the imbalance phase initiated by Tuesday’s breakout is also still intact.

Smashlevels Recap

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The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact after today’s session, consolidating Tuesday’s gains. Value building at higher prices remains bullish until proven otherwise, in the context of Tuesday’s breakout from balance.

Today’s high is poor, serving as a reference that could act as an upside magnet for a clean-up in the absence of weakness. As previously discussed, only acceptance back within Monday’s value area would shift the tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7560 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7515 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, Tuesday’s Initial Balance High, also a LVN. Holding above 7534 signals stability and targets the Weekly Extreme High at 7560 (UT1). Acceptance above 7560 would signal intraday strength, targeting the poor high at 7579 (UT2), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7534 shifts focus to the excess base at 7515 (DT1), with 7490 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.

• Holding above 7534 would target 7560 / 7579 / 7613

• Break and hold below 7534 would target 7515 / 7490

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.36 and 15.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 15.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7490 with VIX above 17.36 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.