— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Friday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Thursday’s session was marked by early strength that resulted in a poor high, in confluence with VIX tagging its support level at 15.82, followed by a reversal and subsequent weakness. Responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of the prior multi-day balance, suggesting that despite a weak session, stronger sellers were absent.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a 3-day balance has developed following Tuesday’s breakout, which remains a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7556 (UT1), last week’s VPOC, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, Thursday’s M-period high. Holding below 7534 targets last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), with 7472 (FDT), the afternoon pullback low from Monday, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, a reclaim and hold above 7534 shifts focus to last week’s VPOC at 7556 (UT1), with 7587 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.

• Break and hold above 7534 would target 7556 / 7587

• Holding below 7534 would target 7497 / 7472

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.02 and 15.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7587 with VIX below 15.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7472 with VIX above 17.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with a rally off the key level at 7410, effectively rejecting the closing weakness from the prior week. This ultimately marked the low of the week.

It was interesting to observe how well the VIX levels performed throughout the week, as published in each daily plan. Note the confluence with VIX resistance during Monday’s session, when buyers defended the 7410 level (see Figure 1).

Change took place on Tuesday as buyers built on Monday’s momentum and initiated a breakout from the multi-day balance area.

The Smashlevel for Tuesday was 7490, which was defended by buyers and resulted in a move toward the final upside target at 7560 (FUT) (see Figure 2).

On Wednesday, the VIX resistance level marked the low of the day (see Figure 3), while the VIX support level marked the high of the day on Thursday (see Figure 4).

The auction has ultimately developed into a 3-day balance area after Tuesday’s breakout, and the key in the short term will be to monitor whether buyers can continue to build value above the prior multi-day balance area.

Note Thursday’s b-shaped profile, indicative of long liquidation (see Figure 5). Responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of the prior multi-day balance, suggesting that despite a weak session, stronger sellers were not present.

Also, note last week’s VPOC at 7556 and last week’s VAL at 7497, which also aligns with a HVN. The auction could remain choppy within the 7497–7556 range, while acceptance outside this range may lead to more directional trade.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 3-day → High: 7593.75 / Low: 7479.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 8-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Tuesday’s breakout from the multi-day balance area. Since then, a 3-day balance has developed, with responsive buyers defending the prior balance highs and supporting value at higher prices.

Buyers remain in short-term control following Tuesday’s breakout. A strong response would be continued value building above last week’s VAL at 7497, which aligns with a HVN and the prior multi-day balance highs. This would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

Any acceptance back into the prior multi-day balance would shift short-term momentum and leave a lower-high structure (LH), opening the door to a move toward the balance lows and potentially negating the higher-low (HL) structure.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7497, last week’s VAL, which aligns with a HVN and the prior multi-day balance highs. Holding above 7497 signals stability and targets last week’s VPOC at 7556. Acceptance above 7556 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7640 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7670, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area, which includes the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648.75, is crucial for sellers to defend to prevent a multi-week balance breakout.

Break and hold below 7497 would be a bearish development, targeting the HVN at 7444. Acceptance below 7444 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7390 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7360, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the prior multi-day balance lows, is crucial for buyers to defend to avoid a revisit of the current multi-week balance lows. A break of the multi-week balance low would end the monthly one-time framing up.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7497.

• Holding above 7497 would target 7556 / 7640 / 7670* / 7700 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7497 would target 7444 / 7390 / 7360* / 7300 / 7250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session kicked off with a pullback, cleaning up the structure from Tuesday’s session. The rotation lower was not a surprise, given that Tuesday’s trend day had already tagged the Weekly Extreme High at 7560, a level that is not commonly reached this early in the week. Responsive buyers stepped in within Tuesday’s excess, providing a perfect Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup at 7515 (DT1).

During the RTH session, the test of VIX resistance at 17.28 marked the low of the day, marking the second time this week that a test of VIX resistance has coincided with the session low (see Figure 1). The first occurrence came on Monday. Just as in the overnight session, responsive buyers stepped in at Tuesday’s excess low during the A-period. This LBAF of 7515 produced a solid move to the upside, nearly reaching 7581 (UT2) before upside momentum stalled. The morning strength produced two sets of single prints, both of which were filled during the afternoon session as the market shifted into a more rotational environment. The daily one-time framing up remains intact, implying that the imbalance phase initiated by Tuesday’s breakout is also still intact.

Smashlevels Recap

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The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact after today’s session, consolidating Tuesday’s gains. Value building at higher prices remains bullish until proven otherwise, in the context of Tuesday’s breakout from balance.

Today’s high is poor, serving as a reference that could act as an upside magnet for a clean-up in the absence of weakness. As previously discussed, only acceptance back within Monday’s value area would shift the tone.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7560 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7515 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, Tuesday’s Initial Balance High, also a LVN. Holding above 7534 signals stability and targets the Weekly Extreme High at 7560 (UT1). Acceptance above 7560 would signal intraday strength, targeting the poor high at 7579 (UT2), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7534 shifts focus to the excess base at 7515 (DT1), with 7490 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.

• Holding above 7534 would target 7560 / 7579 / 7613

• Break and hold below 7534 would target 7515 / 7490

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.36 and 15.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 15.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7490 with VIX above 17.36 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update as I’m leaving the desk early today. Overnight saw a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7490 (Smashlevel), which marked the low of the day. The failure of sellers to gain traction below 7490 was a bullish development, especially following Monday’s close above last week’s value area.

The RTH session kicked off with initiative buying right out of the gate, effectively filling last week’s gap at 7527.75 (UT1) in the process. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a gap-fill reversal—or lack thereof—will determine the next move. Upside momentum stalled following the gap fill but only briefly before a continuation higher unfolded. The final upside target at 7560 (FUT), also the Weekly Extreme High, was tagged during the K-period, with buyers ultimately struggling to gain traction above it.

Smashlevels Recap

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Monday’s closing strength above last week’s value area extended into today’s session, resulting in upside continuation, a double distribution profile, and effectively filling last week’s gap.

Buyers are in short-term control of the auction after breaking out of the multi-day balance area, and only acceptance back within Monday’s value area would shift that momentum.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7560 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7515 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, the Initial Balance High. Holding above 7534 signals stability and targets the Weekly Extreme High at 7560 (UT1). Acceptance above 7560 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7581 (UT2), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7534 shifts focus to the excess base at 7515 (DT1), with 7490 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.

• Holding above 7534 would target 7560 / 7581 / 7613

• Break and hold below 7534 would target 7515 / 7490

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.28 and 15.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 15.64 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7490 with VIX above 17.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question heading into today’s session was whether sellers could maintain downside pressure following Friday’s closing weakness. The 7410 (Smashlevel) level served as a key reference for gauging that response. Buyers immediately reclaimed 7410 overnight, triggering short covering. In the process, both 7444 (UT1) and 7472 (FUT) were tagged ahead of RTH.

The RTH session produced a great opportunity in the B-period, but before that, buyers attempted to gain traction above 7472 (FUT) in the A-period. Chasing above 7472 was unfavorable given that VIX held well above its support level at 17.38. Price exploration above 7472 found responsive sellers, which led to a liquidation break. This short-term weakness resulted in a test of 7410 (Smashlevel) in the B-period, where buyers stepped in. What made this sequence particularly compelling was that VIX simultaneously tested its resistance level at 19.44, almost to the tick (HOD: 19.45) (see Figure 1). A reversal of nearly 100 handles followed, partially filling last week’s gap in the process.

The key takeaway from today’s session was the importance of patience with trade location. Chasing 7472 early was unfavorable, while long setups around the key 7410 level were far more attractive from a contextual standpoint, regardless of outcome. Always mark levels and areas where you want to engage before the session; they don’t have to be my levels. I personally prefer to avoid in-depth analysis during the session so I can focus entirely on execution.

Smashlevels Recap

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Friday closed weak, but value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, which ultimately played in buyers’ favor today, with 7410 playing a key role. Friday closed below last week’s value area, while today closed back above it, making it key to monitor for continuation or lack thereof.

Value building above last week’s VAH opens the door to filling last week’s gap at 7527.25, while the HVNs at 7444 and 7416 are likely to act as downside magnets if that fails to occur.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7490, the Initial Balance High. Holding above 7490 signals stability and targets the unfilled gap at 7527 (UT1), with 7560 (FUT), the Weekly Extreme High, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7490 would shift focus to the afternoon pullback low at 7472 (DT1). Acceptance below 7472 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7444 (DT2), with 7416 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7490.

• Break and hold above 7490 would target 7527 / 7560

• Holding below 7490 would target 7472 / 7444 / 7416

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.64 and 16.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7560 with VIX below 16.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7416 with VIX above 18.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session was quite interesting as it produced conflicting market-generated information. The session opened on a true gap down, which was filled immediately, something stronger sellers wouldn’t have allowed. Value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, but closing weakness developed during the last 30 minutes, often referred to as the M-period.

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, Friday’s close was weak, but value remained largely unchanged relative to Thursday, making early-week value development important to monitor for directional clues.

We can essentially treat the low-volume area (LVA) below last week’s VAL as a spike. Trading within or below this LVA (acceptance) would be a bearish development, while rejecting Friday’s weakness by trading back above the LVA would open the door to a return to value.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7410, Friday’s halfback, aligning with last week’s VAL. Holding below 7410 maintains downside pressure, targeting Friday’s excess base at 7369 (DT1), with 7335 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7410 would shift focus to last week’s VPOC at 7444 (UT1), with 7472 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7410.

• Break and hold above 7410 would target 7444 / 7472

• Holding below 7410 would target 7360 / 7335

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.44 and 17.38. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7472 with VIX below 17.38 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7335 with VIX above 19.44 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, we kicked off with a quiet session on Monday, with buyers holding the key 7540 level. Change took place on Tuesday, with a true gap down that remained unfilled for the rest of the week (7527.25).

The auction established a 3-day balance area between Tuesday and Thursday, a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise in the context of Tuesday’s true gap lower. As discussed in the prior Weekly Plan, acceptance below 7491 would signal weakness, a level that sellers defended throughout the consolidation. Additionally, the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 capped the downside.

Friday’s session was quite interesting as it produced conflicting market-generated information. The session opened on a true gap down, which was filled immediately, something stronger sellers wouldn’t have allowed. Value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, but closing weakness developed during the last 30 minutes, often referred to as the M-period.

The key question now is whether value will follow price or price will return to value, making it key to monitor where value develops early in the week.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.

🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 7459.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 7-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Tuesday’s true gap lower and Friday’s weak close, which printed below last week’s value area. While Friday’s close was weak, value remained largely unchanged relative to Thursday, making early-week value development important to monitor for directional clues.

A strong response would involve a reclaim of last week’s VAL at 7410, rejecting Friday’s closing weakness. This would open the door to a value traverse toward 7472 and a potential attempt to fill last week’s gap at 7527.25, where a gap-fill reversal, or lack thereof, will determine the next move.

Failure to do so, with value building below 7410 and acceptance of Friday’s closing weakness, would maintain downside pressure in the short term, targeting the multi-week balance lows, a crucial area for buyers to defend.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7410, last week’s VAL, aligning with Friday’s halfback. Break and hold above 7410, rejecting Friday’s closing weakness, would target last week’s VAH at 7472. Acceptance above 7472 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7530 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7560, where selling activity can be expected.

This resistance area, which coincides with the unfilled gap at 7527.25 and the prior ATH at 7540, is crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so would open the door for new all-time highs

Holding below 7410, accepting Friday’s closing weakness, would target Friday’s low at 7360. Acceptance below 7360 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7280 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7250, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with the YTD Low VWAP, is crucial for buyers to defend to avoid a multi-week balance breakdown.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7410.

• Break and hold above 7410 would target 7472 / 7530 / 7560* / 7632 / 7648

• Holding below 7410 would target 7360 / 7280 / 7250* / 7200 / 7160

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Yesterday’s after-hours trading saw a notable bounce following Micron’s earnings, bringing price back within last week’s range. The key for buyers was to build acceptance above last week’s low at 7472 (Smashlevel), which they ultimately did a good job of during the European hours overnight. However, the RTH session told a different story.

Sellers immediately took control of 7472 in RTH, triggering a liquidation break. As was the case on Wednesday, responsive buyers stepped in on attempts to break the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405. A volatile Initial Balance transitioned into responsive, two-sided trade for the remainder of the session, similar to Tuesday’s structure. Buyers continue to struggle gaining traction within last week’s range, while sellers have failed to break the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405. Needless to say, acceptance outside the 7472–7405 range is required for directional resolution, a transition from balance to imbalance in auction terms.

Smashlevels Recap

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The auction has established a 3-day balance area, with two-sided trade taking place. This is a short-term bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, in the context of Tuesday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled.

Keep it simple: Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7472 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7405 (DT1). Any failure to establish acceptance outside this range presents a reversal opportunity, consistent with auction behavior in balance conditions.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7444, the 3-day balance midpoint and VPOC. Holding below 7444 opens the door to the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 (DT1). Acceptance below 7405 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7380 (DT2), with 7354 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7444 would shift focus to last week’s low at 7472 (UT1), with 7508 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7444.

• Break and hold above 7444 would target 7472 / 7508

• Holding below 7444 would target 7405 / 7380 / 7354

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.92 and 17.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7508 with VIX below 17.88 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7354 with VIX above 19.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session provided great opportunities early on, as an immediate test of 7452 (Smashlevel) saw aggressive buyers absorbed, leading to a reversal (see Figure 1). This was followed by a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7429 (DT1), which triggered a rotation higher. Overall, the overnight session remained relatively uneventful, trading within Tuesday’s range.

During the RTH session, trading activity was contained within the prior day’s value area during the Initial Balance (IB), the first 60 minutes of RTH. Change took place in the C-period as buyers extended the Initial Balance to the upside. The 7491 (UT2) level was tagged in the process, with buyers building a distribution above 7472. This represented a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise. While the C-, D-, and E-periods formed a poor high, suggesting momentum buyers were becoming exhausted, buyers remained in control as long as 7472 was defended. During the G-period, sellers were able to gain traction below 7472, triggering a liquidation break. The downside pressure that followed was capped by the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 (LOD: 7404.25). The daily has now formed a 2-day balance.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s morning strength was fully retraced in the afternoon, with the session closing at its lows. However, a significant after-hours bounce following Micron’s earnings has brought price back within last week’s range.

The key question now is whether buyers can build acceptance above 7472 to attempt a fill of Tuesday’s gap, or whether trapped inventory from today’s morning session will act as resistance.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7508 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7442 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7472, last week’s low. Holding above 7472 opens the door to 7508 (UT1), with 7527 (FUT), the unfilled gap, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7472 would shift focus to 7442 (DT1). Acceptance below 7442 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 (DT2), with 7380 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7472.

• Holding above 7472 would target 7508 / 7527

• Break and hold below 7472 would target 7442 / 7405 / 7380

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.70 and 17.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7527 with VIX below 17.56 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7380 with VIX above 19.70 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A meaningful change in tone required acceptance outside Wednesday’s value area, either above the VAH or below the VAL, as discussed. Overnight, sellers gained downside traction after breaking and defending 7540 (DT1). Significant weakness followed, clearing all downside targets to 7491 (FDT) before reaching the weekly support area between 7435 and 7405.

The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, 60 handles below 7491 (FDT). When RTH opens above FUT, or below FDT, I typically take a defensive approach, meaning I’m cautious about chasing price. The fact that the market also opened within weekly support added another reason to remain patient.

Regular readers know that a failure below the overnight low (ONL) is a solid fade setup when gapping lower, a sequence that often triggers an inventory correction. That setup ultimately played out today during A-period. It’s not necessarily something you have to trade, but at a minimum, it serves as a reason to avoid initiating shorts early in the session. What made it particularly interesting today was that, despite trading below FDT and with the VIX above its resistance level, the market opened within weekly support, an area that is generally tricky to short under any circumstance.

The failure below ONL triggered a notable short-covering rally, but it’s important to understand that this was an inventory correction until proven otherwise, which would require acceptance back into the prior day’s range. The B-period tagged 7491 (FDT) to the tick, where sellers stepped in. From a risk perspective, shorting at 7491 was clearly more favorable, especially with the VIX still holding above its resistance, compared to shorting into the hole at the open. Trading activity for the rest of the session remained contained within the Initial Balance range. The roll gap at 7435 has been filled and is now out of the way. It will be very important for buyers to defend the weekly support area, which we discussed the importance of in the Weekly Plan.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session saw sellers attempting to meaningfully shift the tone following a sustained true gap down. The key in the short term is whether lower prices are accepted or rejected. Unchanged or lower value is a bearish development, while failure to do so opens the door to a gap fill.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7472 (UT1), last week’s low aligning with today’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7429 (DT1), the top of today’s excess low.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7452.

• Break and hold above 7452 would target 7472 / 7491 / 7510

• Holding below 7452 would target 7429 / 7405 / 7380

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.46 and 18.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7510 with VIX below 18.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7380 with VIX above 20.46 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: Early overnight weakness led to an inside-day breakdown, tagging the next level of interest at 7515 (DT2), where responsive buyers stepped in. The inside-day range was traversed heading into the RTH session.

Buyers initiated an inside-day breakout during the Initial Balance in RTH, but the attempt ultimately failed, triggering a rotation lower. The inside-day range was subsequently traversed once more before activity tapered off after the C-period. From the D-period onwards, the Smashlevel at 7558 capped the upside, while sellers were unable to gain meaningful traction below the important 7540 (DT1) level, forming a poor low in the process.

Smashlevels Recap

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The context remains unchanged after today’s session, which closed within Thursday’s inside-day range. Early price action saw a Look Above and Fail, followed later by an inside-day breakdown that lacked meaningful downside traction, resulting in a poor low.

Note how the last two sessions have essentially traded within Wednesday’s value area. The auction requires acceptance outside of this area for a meaningful change in tone. Levels of interest remain largely unchanged.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7581 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7540 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7560, the Initial Balance low. Holding below 7560 opens the door to 7540 (DT1). Acceptance below 7540 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7515 (DT2), with 7491 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7560 would shift focus to 7581 (UT1), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7560.

• Break and hold above 7560 would target 7581 / 7613

• Holding below 7560 would target 7540 / 7515 / 7491

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.12 and 16.46. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 16.46 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7491 with VIX above 18.12 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Friday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Thursday’s session rejected Wednesday’s closing weakness with a return within Wednesday’s value area, forming an inside day. The key question is whether buyers can follow through.

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the immediate attention remains on Thursday’s inside day for early directional clues.

Balance guidelines apply: go with a break of the inside day and monitor for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). Failure to follow through after a breakout attempt (LAAF/LBAF) opens the door for a rotation back toward Thursday’s VPOC.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7581 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7540 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7558, Thursday’s halfback. Holding above 7558 signals stability and opens the door to 7581 (UT1). Acceptance above 7581, confirming a successful inside-day breakout, would target the HVN at 7613 (UT2), with 7632 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7558 would shift focus to 7540 (DT1). Acceptance below 7540, confirming a successful inside-day breakdown, would target 7515 (DT2), with 7491 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7558.

• Holding above 7558 would target 7581 / 7613 / 7632

• Break and hold below 7558 would target 7540 / 7515 / 7491

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.18 and 15.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7632 with VIX below 15.62 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7491 with VIX above 17.18 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week, we transitioned to the ESU26 (September) contract. As a reminder, my charts are not back-adjusted, meaning historical prices remain unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference, as both approaches have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is typically minimal since we focus on the auction one day at a time.

A peace deal triggered Monday’s session to open on a true gap up, tagging the non-back-adjusted ATH and the Weekly Extreme High at 7635 in the process. Completing the weekly targets as early as Monday typically makes the rest of the week very tricky to trade.

In the plan for Tuesday, we discussed how acceptance above 7635 was not favorable for fading, while failure to do so could open the door to a pullback. The tricky part was that even a sizable pullback would not necessarily be meaningfully bearish. Tuesday’s HOD was 7636.75, from which a pullback unfolded, as aggressive buyers were ultimately absorbed by passive sellers (see Figure 1).

The daily structure of lower highs and lower lows continued on Wednesday. Following the FOMC meeting, the session closed weak, tagging the weekly Smashlevel at 7481 in the process. On Thursday, an inside day was established after rejecting Wednesday’s closing weakness (see Figure 2). The inside day now serves as the key short-term reference.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.

🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 7581.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 6-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this week is whether buyers can continue building acceptance within Wednesday’s value area following Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s closing weakness. Immediate attention is on Thursday’s inside day for early clues as to what the market wants next.

Last week’s profile clearly shows areas of acceptance (high volume) and rejection (low volume). Strength is defined by continued rejection of prices below Thursday’s low, making a failed inside-day breakdown a fade setup of interest. This would open the door for an inside-day breakout and a potential revisit of the all-time highs.

Failure to do so, and instead sustaining an inside-day breakdown, would be a bearish development, opening the door for a rotation through the low-volume structure toward Wednesday’s lows, a crucial area for buyers to defend.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7540, the prior non-back-adjusted ATH from May, aligning with Thursday’s inside-day low. Holding above 7540 would target the resistance area between last week’s VPOC at 7613 and the prior ATH at 7632. Acceptance above 7632 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7705 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7735, where selling activity can be expected.

The 7735 level has confluence with a higher-timeframe (HTF) level from one of our models, making it an important area of interest if reached.

Break and hold below 7540 would target the high volume node (HVN) from Wednesday’s lows at 7491, aligning with a prior weekly high. Acceptance below 7491 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7435 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with multiple prior weekly VPOCs, is crucial for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would open the door for a rotation toward the multi-week balance lows.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7540.

• Holding above 7540 would target 7613-32 / 7705 / 7735* / 7780 / 7820

• Break and hold below 7540 would target 7491 / 7435 / 7405* / 7365 / 7300

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session saw a Look Below and Fail of the 2-day balance low, triggering a rotation higher. Buyers managed to reclaim Monday’s low, the 7599 level (Smashlevel), which coincided with a low volume node (LVN), a bullish development. However, they were unable to defend it ahead of the RTH session.

During RTH, buyers made a few early attempts to reclaim 7599 without success, which led to sellers taking control of the auction and building acceptance below Monday’s range. A liquidation break unfolded during FOMC, tagging the final downside target at 7515 (FDT) almost to the tick, from which a reversal followed. This bounce met responsive sellers at 7574 (DT1), suggesting continued intraday weakness, which ultimately played out as another leg to the downside. The roll gap at 7435 now comes into play if sellers can maintain downside pressure.

Smashlevels Recap

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The inability to gain acceptance back into Monday’s range led to intraday weakness, which was followed by a liquidation break and the formation of a double distribution profile. Immediate attention is on the single prints formed in the L-period for early clues as to what the market wants next.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7540 (UT1), today’s halfback aligning with a high volume node (HVN), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7491 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7515, today’s breakdown single prints. Holding below 7515 would maintain downside pressure, targeting 7491 (DT1). Acceptance below 7491 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7461 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7435 (FDT), the roll gap, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7515 would shift focus to today’s halfback at 7540 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7572 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7515.

• Break and hold above 7515 would target 7540 / 7572

• Holding below 7515 would target 7491 / 7461 / 7435

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.54 and 17.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7572 with VIX below 17.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7435 with VIX above 19.54 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update, as I’m less active this week: The Weekly Extreme High at 7635, our target for this week, was tagged on Monday and proved to be a pivotal level today. To reiterate, tagging a Weekly Extreme as early as Monday makes the rest of the week very tricky to trade, so stay nimble. Both the overnight and RTH sessions were capped by the 7635 level, and we can’t forget about the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632.

For traders tracking order flow, aggressive buying was repeatedly absorbed by passive sellers in the 7635–32 area early in the session (see Figure 1). This early attempt to reclaim 7635 ultimately failed, resulting in a rotation lower. In the process, sellers broke the pattern of higher lows on the daily chart, closing the session at the lows with value overlapping lower.

Smashlevels Recap

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The non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632 served as our short-term level of interest and proved pivotal today, ultimately capping the upside.

The auction has formed a 2-day balance after breaking the pattern of higher daily lows. Immediate attention is on Monday’s low, aligning with a low volume node (LVN) from today.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7623 (UT1), the afternoon rally high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7574 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7599, Monday’s low. Holding below 7599 would target 7574 (DT1). Acceptance below 7574 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the prior ATH at 7540 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7515 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7599 would shift focus to today’s afternoon rally high at 7623 (UT1). Acceptance above 7623 would signal intraday strength, targeting the Weekly Extreme High at 7635 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7649 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7599.

• Break and hold above 7599 would target 7623 / 7635 / 7649

• Holding below 7599 would target 7574 / 7540 / 7515

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.28 and 15.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7649 with VIX below 15.54 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7515 with VIX above 17.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A peace deal hit the news feed ahead of the overnight session, triggering a significant move higher. The auction opened above the prior ATH at 7540, our final upside target (FUT), and continued to auction higher from there. A distribution was established around 7595 ahead of the RTH open, an area of prior balance (HVN). When RTH opens above FUT or below FDT, I take a more defensive approach and avoid chasing. This does not mean fading the move. Ideally, RTH would have offered an inventory correction, a pullback to potentially join the move, but even that would have been difficult given the significant overnight extension.

The RTH session showed no interest in an inventory correction, making the session difficult to trade outside of pure scalps. These conditions are challenging because chasing carries the risk of running into a liquidation break at any time, while shorting remains off the table. The next level of interest was the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632, aligning with the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, already tagged in the D-period. Tagging 7635 this early makes the rest of the week tricky. Acceptance above it, implying value building above the prior ATH, is contextually not favorable for fading, while failure to do so would open the door for a pullback that could be sizable without necessarily being meaningfully bearish. Mind you step for the rest of the week.

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Significant move higher today, following peace deal headlines. In the process, the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632 was tagged, where upside momentum stalled. Value development relative to this reference and today’s value area will be key in the short term.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7649 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7611 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7635-32. Holding below 7632 would target 7611 (DT1). Acceptance below 7611 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7595 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7574 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7635 would shift focus to today’s poor high at 7649 (UT1). Acceptance above 7649 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7670 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7694 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7635-32.

• Break and hold above 7635 would target 7649 / 7670 / 7694

• Holding below 7632 would target 7611 / 7595 / 7574

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.06 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7694 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7574 with VIX above 17.06 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contract Rollover

As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract.

For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

On Friday, buyers defended the key level at 7380 (Smashlevel) during both the overnight and RTH sessions, leading to upside continuation and a clean-up of Tuesday’s poor structure. The upside was capped by 7455 (UT2).

Smashlevels Recap

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As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH. The key question is whether buyers can capitalize on last week’s failed breakdown and revisit the all-time highs, or whether sellers can establish a lower high.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7515 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7461 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7481, Friday’s M-period Low (ESU26). Holding above 7481 signals stability and targets 7515 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7540 (FUT), the prior ATH, under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7481 would shift focus to 7461 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7435 (FDT), the ESM26 settlement (roll gap), under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7481.

• Holding above 7481 would target 7515 / 7540

• Break and hold below 7481 would target 7461 / 7435

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.62 and 16.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7540 with VIX below 16.76 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7435 with VIX above 18.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESM26 contract:

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7419.

• Holding above 7419 would target 7453 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7419 would target 7399 / 7373

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contract Rollover

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Last week kicked off with responsive buying on Monday after the overnight session came a few ticks shy of the 4-week balance low at 7354 (see Figure 1). We discussed the potential for a short-covering rally on Monday if sellers were unable to sustain immediate continuation lower. The session ultimately formed an inside day.

On Tuesday, buyers initiated an inside-day breakout early during RTH (see Figure 2). However, this attempt resulted in a vicious bull trap that led to a notable liquidation break. The market filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the ATH, reaching 7250, from which a 150-handle reversal unfolded.

Wednesday’s session formed another inside day, with sellers building value below the 4-week balance low at 7354 and closing the session at 7275, which also marked the Monthly Extreme Low. Reaching this extreme so early in the month highlighted the emotional nature of the price action. It was a very tricky week to trade, with large swings in both directions.

Change took place on Thursday after a failed inside-day breakdown attempt, followed by a news-driven short-covering rally. In the process, buyers reclaimed both the 4-week balance low at 7354 and the prior week’s low at 7380. Heading into Friday’s session, the key was whether buyers could shift the short-term tone with follow-through, or if the bounce would present an opportunity for stronger sellers to step in.

The Smashlevel, the pivot for Friday’s session, was the prior week’s low at 7380. Buyers defended this level both overnight and during the RTH session, leading to upside continuation and a return to value (see Figure 3). The medium-term value (20D VPOC) sits at 7433, while the short-term value (5D VPOC) sits at 7416. Friday’s session closed at 7435.

The key question in the short term is whether last week’s failed breakdown of the 4-week balance area will trigger a retest of the all-time highs, where unfinished business remains, or whether sellers can step in and form a lower high, making the prior ATH at 7540 an important reference to monitor.

I will be switching to the ESU26 (September) contract on Monday, but Monday’s plan will include daily levels for both the ESM26 and ESU26 contracts, as the continuous contract on TradingView typically rolls over on Tuesday.

Last Week’s Levels in Review

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Central Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.

🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7366.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 7491
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50

Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.

One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.

One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.

Contract Rollover

Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract.

For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).

I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.

Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.

For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key this shortened week is to stay nimble, as Options and VIX expirations, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover are all on deck, conditions that typically make order flow less reliable. From an auction perspective, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH.

The question now is whether buyers can capitalize on sellers’ inability to follow through and rotate back toward the unfinished business at the all-time highs, the opposite side of balance, or whether sellers can instead establish a lower high.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7481, Friday’s M-period Low (ESU26). Holding above 7481 would target the prior ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7605 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, where selling activity can be expected. This would complete a full traverse of the prior weekly balance area, a common behavior following a failed breakdown.

Break and hold below 7481 would target the ESM26 settlement (roll gap) at 7435. Acceptance below 7435 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7365 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7335, where buying activity can be expected. This support area, which coincides with the prior weekly balance area, is crucial for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would negate the failed breakdown scenario currently in play.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7481.

• Holding above 7481 would target 7540 / 7605 / 7635* / 7675 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7481 would target 7435 / 7365 / 7335* / 7300 / 7250

*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.

Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s closing weakness carried into the overnight session, with sellers immediately gaining traction to the downside. As outlined in the plan, a break and hold below 7250 (DT1) would signal weakness, something sellers ultimately struggled with. A perfect Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7250, coming a few ticks shy of 7230 (DT2), resulted in a reversal (see Figure 1). The remainder of the overnight session offered excellent reactions around all our key levels, with sellers stepping in at 7335 (UT2), aligning with last month’s VAL.

The RTH session was all about the 7335 level, along with the Smashlevel at 7275, which aligned with the Monthly Extreme Low. During the Initial Balance, sellers remained responsive at 7335, while buyers consistently stepped in on attempts to break below 7275 in the following periods. Change took place in the H-period, when Trump stepped in at the Smashlevel at 7275, triggering a squeeze and ultimately forming two sets of single prints. In the process, buyers reclaimed the prior 4-week balance low at 7354 and cleaned up Tuesday’s C-period single prints as the auction rotated back to the 5D VPOC at 7416.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session was marked by rotational activity early on, with buyers rejecting an inside-day breakdown after defending the key 7275 level multiple times. This resulted in a retest of Wednesday’s high, following a news-driven short-covering rally.

The key in the short term will be to monitor whether this bounce offers another opportunity for sellers to step in, or whether buyers can shift the tone with follow-through after closing back within the prior multi-week balance area.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), Tuesday’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the prior 4-week balance low.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7380, last week’s low. Holding above 7380 signals stability and targets 7415 (UT1). Acceptance above 7415 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7455 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7380 would shift focus to the prior 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7336 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7380.

• Holding above 7380 would target 7415 / 7455 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7380 would target 7354 / 7336

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.58 and 18.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 18.32 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7336 with VIX above 20.58 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers maintained downside pressure overnight following an early period of consolidation around last week’s low at 7380 (Smashlevel). The final downside target at 7308 (FDT) was already tagged overnight, triggering a reversal ahead of the RTH open. The VIX breached its resistance level at 20.90 a couple of hours prior to tagging 7308. For newer readers: typically, with the VIX above resistance, I expect sellers to be active on bounces. The FDT (7308) can act as a downside magnet in an elevated VIX environment. Reversals off FDT can occur, as shorting directly into it is typically not an ideal location to initiate shorts. When FDT is breached with VIX still above resistance, I become cautious about seeking reversals.

In the RTH session, buyers attempted to reclaim 7380 during the initial balance after holding above 7354 (DT1), with the VIX dropping below its resistance. The C-period decisively rejected this attempt, while the VIX once again breached 20.90. Sellers then effectively controlled the auction, selling every bounce. Notably, 7308 provided multiple responsive reactions; however, into the closing weakness, it was ultimately taken out, tagging the top of Tuesday’s excess at 7275 in the process. 7275 is the Monthly Extreme Low, which I somehow overlooked, mainly because it typically doesn’t get hit this early in the month. This means the auction is currently emotional, which has been reflected by the price action, so stay sharp.

Smashlevels Recap

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Sellers are currently controlling the auction in the short-term, with both the daily and weekly timeframes in one-time framing down. Continued downside pressure is expected as long as buyers are unable to reclaim the prior 4-week balance low at 7354. Note that last month’s VAL at 7337 is another key reference buyers need to reclaim

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7300 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7250 (DT1), the 5% correction level off ATH. PPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7275, Tuesday’s excess base, aligning with the Monthly Extreme Low. Holding below 7275 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7250 (DT1). Acceptance below 7250 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7230 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7200 (FDT), the Weekly Extreme Low, under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7275 would shift focus to 7300 (UT1). Acceptance above 7300 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7335 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7354 (FUT), the 4-week balance low, under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7275.

• Break and hold above 7275 would target 7300 / 7335 / 7354

• Holding below 7275 would target 7250 / 7230 / 7200

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.46 and 20.98. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7354 with VIX below 20.98 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7200 with VIX above 23.46 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.