— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Wednesday’s main distribution, ranging from 7670 (Smashlevel) to 7691 (UT1), was our key focus today, and the overnight session traded almost perfectly within this range. Attempts to break out of this range were met with responsive activity, providing good trading opportunities, particularly during the European session (see Figure 1). The tone shift came about an hour before RTH opened, as buyers initiated a breakout above 7691 and subsequently defended the level on the retest.

While 7691–7670 was of short-term interest, the high volume area between 7711 and 7655 was key. As discussed, acceptance outside this range would open the door to a directional move. The RTH session opened with a true gap up, and buyers took control of the opening level. Note the limited trading activity below today’s open (A-period highlighted in green). Sellers were unable to fill today’s gap during the initial three periods, from A- through C-period, and notably, no 30-minute bar saw a close below the 7711 level.

The C-period looked below the Initial Balance low and failed, triggering a vicious reversal that was primarily driven by headlines. The aggressive seller below the IBL wasn’t too happy about that (see Figure 2). The squeeze left behind a large set of single prints in the D-period, separating today’s double distribution. Upside momentum stalled in the afternoon as the market consolidated its gains.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established a double distribution trend day after buyers defended the key 7670 level overnight and sustained a true gap higher. In the process, a large set of single prints formed in the D-period, separating the two distributions.

The highlighted upper distribution between 7766 and 7747 is the short-term focus. A breakout would target last month’s VAH, while a breakdown would open the door to filling today’s single prints. Acceptance into today’s lower distribution would be a sign of weakness. NFP is on deck tomorrow.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7747.

• Holding above 7747 would target 7766 / 7794 / 7814

• Break and hold below 7747 would target 7726 / 7691

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.06 and 13.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7814 with VIX below 13.58 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7691 with VIX above 15.06 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Tuesday’s excess base at 7633 (DT1) was tested multiple times during Asia, finding responsive buyers, but the bounces lacked meaningful follow-through. During the European session, sellers managed to take out 7633, opening the door to further downside. However, a Look Below and Fail of Tuesday’s low triggered a notable reversal (see Figure 1).

The rotation higher quickly saw a test of 7655 (Smashlevel), where heavy activity was observed before another reversal unfolded (see Figure 2 & 3). Notable order flow activity around a pre-identified level confirms that the area was not only important to us but to other market participants as well.

The RTH session opened right between 7655 and the prior ATH at 7648, with the A-period consolidating around the opening level. Change took place in the B-period, when buyers reclaimed 7655, signaling strength and keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Traction above 7655 triggered short-covering, reflected in the formation of single prints. In the process, Tuesday’s bear gap at 7674 (UT1) was filled, and the auction completed a rotation back to the high volume node at 7690 (UT2), between which the rest of the session consolidated.

A market that held above 7674 was bullish intraday, which made the significant absorption of aggressive sellers around 7674 a particularly interesting sequence today. Despite big effort, sellers were not able to meaningfully move price lower (see Figure 4). The RTH VWAP was there as confluence, and the VIX held below its support level at 15.52 from the B-period onward. Contextually, it was not a good location to press shorts regardless of what happened next. The market popped higher, but ultimately rotated back to 7674 into the close. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, representing short-term and medium-term value, have converged within today’s range.

Session Recap

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Sellers’ inability to build acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance area triggered a rotation back to value, the HVN around 7690, which has been the fairest price to do business recently. We can expect tricky two-sided trade within this HVA, while acceptance outside the 7711–7655 range opens the door to a directional move.

Short-term, the focus is on today’s highlighted main distribution between 7691 and 7670. A breakout would target Monday’s true gap at 7711.25, while a breakdown would open the door to filling today’s single prints and revisiting last week’s low at 7655.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7670, the lower end of today’s main distribution. Holding above 7670 signals stability and targets today’s poor high at 7691 (UT1). Acceptance above 7691 would signal intraday strength, targeting Monday’s bear gap at 7711 (UT2), with 7735 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7670 shifts focus to last week’s low at 7655 (DT1). Acceptance below 7655 would signal intraday weakness, targeting Tuesday’s excess base at 7633 (DT2), with 7610 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7670.

• Holding above 7670 would target 7691 / 7711 / 7735

• Break and hold below 7670 would target 7655 / 7633 / 7610

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.98 and 14.40. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7735 with VIX below 14.40 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7610 with VIX above 15.98 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The main objective for buyers was to negate Monday’s true gap down by reclaiming 7711 (UT1), the low volume node we’ve discussed recently. Failure to do so would maintain downside pressure. Overnight, the inability to reclaim 7711, followed by the failure to hold 7690 (Smashlevel), triggered significant weakness. As a result, price exploration below the 7711–7660 range took place, indicating that sellers were attempting to initiate a directional move from balance. As mentioned in the pre-open update, the key was to monitor whether sellers could establish acceptance below 7660, because if not, a move back to value remained on the table.

The RTH session opened with its second consecutive true gap lower, below 7655, putting both the daily and weekly timeframes into one-time framing down. The A-period looked below the overnight low and failed, coming a few ticks shy of the Final Downside Target at 7637 (FDT), triggering an inventory correction—a common fade setup when the market gaps lower. Buyers needed to accomplish the following: regain acceptance back within last week’s range, fill today’s gap, and establish acceptance back within Monday’s range. Failure to do so would essentially mean that the opening strength was simply an inventory correction rather than evidence of stronger buyers.

The C-period came a few ticks shy of filling today’s gap at 7674.75 (7673) before the first meaningful pullback unfolded. Buyers defended this pullback during the D-period, setting up another attempt at today’s gap in the E-period. The gap remained unfilled after reaching a high of 7673.75, from which a perfect reversal unfolded from an order flow perspective (see Figure 1). The afternoon session was marked by continued downside pressure, filling the bull gap at 7637.75 and probing into the prior multi-week balance area.

Session Recap

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Heading into this week, the key for buyers was to defend the LVN at 7711, as failure to do so would be short-term bearish and open the door to filling the bull gap at 7637.75. The gap was effectively filled today, meaning the auction has reached a critical inflection point as it now retests the breakout point from the multi-week balance area—the prior ATH at 7648.

Keep it simple: acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance, suggesting that the breakout has failed, would set the stage for continued downside pressure. Failure to do so, meaning acceptance back into last week’s range above 7655, would keep the broader bullish structure intact.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7655, last week’s low. Holding below 7655 would maintain downside pressure, targeting today’s excess base at 7633 (DT1). Acceptance below 7633 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7610 (DT2), with 7589 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7655 shifts focus to the bear gap at 7674 (UT1). Acceptance above 7674 would signal intraday strength, targeting the HVN at 7690 (UT2), with 7711 (FUT), Monday’s bear gap, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7655.

• Break and hold above 7655 would target 7674 / 7690 / 7711

• Holding below 7655 would target 7633 / 7610 / 7589

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.16 and 15.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7711 with VIX below 15.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7589 with VIX above 17.16 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers managed to take out 7711 (Smashlevel) early in the overnight session, triggering the anticipated weakness. As a result, the high volume node at 7690, acting as the downside magnet, was tagged rather quickly. This was a great example of auction dynamics: markets transition from balance to imbalance, but when that imbalance fails, price often rotates back toward where value was previously established—in this case, the HVN at 7690. A LBAF of 7690 triggered a revisit of 7711; however, buyers ultimately failed to gain meaningful traction above 7711, resulting in weakness heading into the RTH session.

The RTH session, which opened with a true gap down, was rather lackluster, as most of the session saw trading activity centered around the HVN at 7690. This is not uncommon when the auction returns to an area of previously established value, where two-sided trade often develops. We saw an end-of-month rip into the close, but today’s true gap at 7711.75 remained unfilled.

Session Recap

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A failure to defend 7711 opened the door to a rotation back toward the HVN at 7690—a scenario that ultimately played out today following a true gap down.

With the auction now back inside the prior multi-day balance, we can expect responsive, two-sided trade as long as acceptance is not established outside the 7711–7660 range, making both levels attractive trade locations.

The main objective for buyers is to regain acceptance within Friday’s value area, effectively negating today’s gap. Failure to do so would maintain short-term downside pressure given the failed breakout.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7690, the high volume node (HVN), which aligns with today’s FS VWAP. Holding above 7690 would target the unfilled gap at 7711 (UT1). Acceptance above 7711 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7735 (UT2), with 7755 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7690 shifts focus to last week’s VAL at 7660 (DT1), with 7637 (FDT), the unfilled bull gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7690.

• Holding above 7690 would target 7711 / 7735 / 7755

• Break and hold below 7690 would target 7660 / 7637

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.66 and 14.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7755 with VIX below 14.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 15.66 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

On Friday, buyers made an attempt at continuation, filling the second bear gap at 7766.25 in the process. However, the afternoon session was marked by weakness, resulting in a close at the session lows. The daily one-time framing higher remains intact despite the weak close, as Thursday’s low was not breached. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the week remained in the lower distribution, failing to migrate higher.

Session Recap

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The weekly profile formed a double distribution, with a low volume node at 7711 separating the two distributions. The key in the short term is how the auction behaves relative to this LVN.

Continued value development above 7711 would be short-term bullish and keep Thursday’s shift in tone intact. Failure to establish value above the LVN would open the door to a rotation back toward the HVN at 7690, which could act as a downside magnet on weakness.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7711, the low volume node (LVN) separating last week’s distributions, which aligns with the weekly VWAP. Holding above 7711 signals stability and targets the monthly VWAP at 7735 (UT1). Acceptance above 7735 would signal intraday strength, targeting Thursday’s high at 7755 (UT2), with 7775 (FUT), the 20D VPOC, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7711 shifts focus to the 5D VPOC at 7690 (DT1), with 7660 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7755 / 7775

• Break and hold below 7711 would target 7690 / 7760

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.16 and 13.72. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 13.72 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7760 with VIX above 15.16 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Weekly Levels in Review

Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday after sellers stepped in and defended Monday’s intraday pivot at 7705 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1). Sellers attempted to break the prior week’s low at 7659, but aggressive selling was absorbed by passive buyers, preventing sellers from moving price lower effectively (see Figure 2). This ultimately resulted in a Look Below and Fail (LBAF).

Both Tuesday and Wednesday printed higher highs and higher lows, with each session forming an excess low. The NVDA earnings report following Wednesday’s close triggered strength after-hours; however, the market remained in balance, forming a 5-day balance area heading into Thursday.

The key question heading into Thursday was whether buyers could sustain the after-hours strength and target a traverse of the prior week’s value area toward 7746. The key level to defend was 7705 (Smashlevel), where sellers stepped in early on Monday.

Buyers defended 7705, resulting in a breakout from the multi-day balance, filling the bear gap at 7720.75 and completing a traverse of the prior week’s value area in the process (see Figure 3).

As always, when the auction attempts to transition from balance to imbalance, our job is to monitor for continuation—or lack thereof. On Friday, buyers made an attempt at continuation, filling the second bear gap at 7766.25 in the process. However, the afternoon session was marked by weakness, resulting in a close at the session lows. The daily one-time framing higher remains intact despite the weak close, as Thursday’s low was not breached.

The weekly profile formed a double distribution, with a low volume node at 7711 separating the two distributions. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the week remained in the lower distribution, failing to migrate higher. The question now is whether buyers can build acceptance in the upper distribution or whether failure to do so would trigger a move back into the lower distribution. Early-week value development relative to the LVN at 7711 will be key to monitor.

Note that the past two weeks have formed a poor/week low, with three daily lows closely clustered together at 7659, 7655, and 7663. That said, one possibility is that Thursday and Friday’s strength was driven by short covering rather than stronger buyers. The move may simply have been a technical fill of structure, filling both bear gaps and attracting stronger sellers at better trade locations ahead of a potential downside continuation. If that is the case, stronger sellers should have no problem rotating back into last week’s lower distribution and attacking these poor lows, making the LVN at 7711 a key in the short-term.

From a buyer’s perspective, it would have been preferable to see a multi-day balance breakdown last week instead, filling the bull gap at 7637.75 and forming an excess low that could potentially trigger a reversal. Now that both bear gaps have been filled instead, the conditions are a bit trickier.

As we’ve previously discussed, the broader structure remains bullish as long as the multi-week balance breakout remains intact.

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Eastern Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends at: 7711.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 3W | High: 7838.50 / Low: 7655
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7345.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the multi-week balance breakout initiated on Thursday, which led to the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile. Immediate attention is on the low volume node (LVN) at 7711, separating the two distributions.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend the LVN at 7711, which aligns with the Weekly VWAP at 7709. Failure to defend this area, effectively rejecting Thursday’s breakout, would be short-term bearish and once again bring the bull gap at 7637.75 into play.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend Thursday’s high at 7755, a level above which buyers failed to gain acceptance on Friday. Failure to defend this area would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs.

The broader structure remains bullish as long as the multi-week balance breakout remains intact.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7711, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7711 would be short-term bullish, targeting Thursday’s high at 7755. Acceptance above 7755 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so would shift the weekly timeframe back to one-time framing higher.

Break and hold below 7711 would be short-term bearish, targeting the support area between 7660 and the unfilled bull gap at 7637. Acceptance below 7637, indicating a failed multi-week balance breakout, would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door to a return to the HVN at 7440, the long-term value (90D VPOC).

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7711.

• Holding above 7711 would target 7755 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935

• Break and hold below 7711 would target 7660-37 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485 / 7440

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session opened with strength following the NVDA earnings report. The market came within a few handles of tagging the final upside target at 7746 (FUT). Today was a great example of how tricky it can be to chase the market at a poor trade location. If you’re not already in a position, chasing longs near FUT levels or shorts near FDT levels is generally not a great strategy, as regular readers of this newsletter are aware. A more patient approach is to play defense by identifying the areas where you want to engage should the market pull back. Essentially, you’re planning where to enter at a better trade location from a risk-reward perspective. If the market proceeds higher without you, so be it.

Patient traders who avoided chasing the early overnight strength were heavily rewarded in today’s RTH session after a perfect hold of the 7705 pivot (Smashlevel) during the A-period. A gap-fill reversal marked today’s low, from which buyers initiated a multi-day balance breakout. The main target was a full traverse of last week’s value area, which was accomplished during the G-period after tagging 7746 (FUT). Notable aggressive selling activity stepped in above 7746, and the session ultimately closed back within the value area.

Session Recap

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Today’s session saw a breakout from the multi-day balance, filling one of last week’s bear gaps and completing a traverse of last week’s value area in the process. As always, when the auction attempts to transition from balance to imbalance, our job is to monitor for continuation—or lack thereof.

A strong response would involve reclaiming last week’s VAH at 7746, which aligns closely with today’s VAH. This would indicate buyers are willing to initiate activity above value, supporting the transition into imbalance.

Failure to hold today’s afternoon pullback low at 7724, which closely aligns with the multi-day balance high, would be a cautionary sign.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7746, last week’s VAH. Holding below 7746 would target the afternoon pullback low at 7724 (DT1). Acceptance below 7724 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7705 (DT2), with 7683 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming 7746 keeps the imbalance intact and targets the unfilled bear gap at 7766 (UT1). Acceptance above 7766 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7779 (UT2), with 7794 (FUT), serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7746.

• Break and hold above 7746 would target 7766 / 7779 / 7794

• Holding below 7746 would target 7724 / 7705 / 7683

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.18 and 13.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7794 with VIX below 13.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7683 with VIX above 15.18 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update, as the context remains unchanged following today’s session. The overnight session closely resembled Tuesday’s RTH session, with the initial weakness getting retraced before the market consolidated above last week’s VAL at 7683 (Smashlevel). The RTH session followed a similar pattern, with value developing above 7683 while responsive buyers continued to step in on dips. Notably, both Tuesday and Wednesday’s sessions formed excess lows, finding responsive buyers in the area where aggressive sellers were absorbed on Monday.

In the last hour of RTH, marked by the L- and M-periods, the market tested 7705 (UT1), from which a closing reversal unfolded. Typically, the market needs to either break and hold above UT1 or below DT1 to establish a more directional tone. If you were betting on a non-directional market ahead of NVDA earnings, 7705 (UT1) was a solid level to fade, made even more interesting by signs of exhaustion (see Figure 1).

Session Recap

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The market remains in a state of indecision, now forming a 5-day balance area. The session closed right at the developing Weekly VPOC before after-hours trading rotated higher, breaking out of today’s range.

The key question now is whether buyers can sustain the after-hours strength and target a traverse of last week’s value area, following two consecutive excess lows below last week’s VAL.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7705, today’s high. Holding above 7705 signals stability and targets the unfilled bear gap at 7720 (UT1), with 7746 (FUT), last week’s VAH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7705 shifts focus to last week’s VAL at 7683 (DT1). Acceptance below 7683 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7659 (DT2), with 7637 (FDT), the unfilled bull gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

I would also observe the behavior around 29375 on NQ, with potential upside targets at 29490 and 29635.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7705.

• Holding above 7705 would target 7720 / 7746

• Break and hold below 7705 would target 7683 / 7659 / 7637

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.92 and 14.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7746 with VIX below 14.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 15.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Early weakness overnight led to another test of last week’s low at 7659 (DT1), where responsive buyers stepped in once again. As discussed, sellers needed to gain acceptance below 7659 given Monday’s notable aggressive selling effort, and the failure to do so triggered a rotation higher. Reclaiming last week’s VAL at 7683 (Smashlevel) had the potential to trigger short-covering, which essentially played out during the European session. In the process, 7705 (UT1) was tagged, producing a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) ahead of the RTH session.

In contrast to the overnight session, the RTH session was rather uneventful in terms of trading opportunities. Generally, when the market remains within both the initial upside and downside targets, it reflects an auction lacking meaningful conviction in either direction. RTH opened with a true gap up, which was filled in the B-period. A potential gap-fill reversal was disrupted by headlines, triggering a liquidation break in the C-period. The drop was immediately retraced, after which the auction consolidated within a very tight range inside last week’s value area. In the Weekly Plan, we discussed that sellers need to defend the bear gap at 7720, while buyers need to defend the bull gap at 7637. Both remain untested, keeping the short-term context unchanged.

Session Recap

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The market has established a well-defined distribution between 7720 and 7659, now forming a 4-day balance area. In other words, the auction is awaiting more information before making its next move. PCE data is on deck tomorrow, followed by NVDA earnings after-hours, both serving as potential catalysts.

Last week’s VAL at 7683 remains a key short-term reference, a level below which sellers struggled to gain traction following the liquidation break today.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7683, last week’s VAL. Holding above 7683 would target 7705 (UT1). Acceptance above 7705 would signal intraday strength, targeting the unfilled bear gap at 7720 (UT2), with 7746 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7683 shifts focus to 7659 (DT1), with 7637 (FDT), the unfilled bull gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7683.

• Holding above 7683 would target 7705 / 7720 / 7746

• Break and hold below 7683 would target 7659 / 7637

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.18 and 14.72. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7746 with VIX below 14.72 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 16.18 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers stepped in at 7703.25 overnight, a couple of ticks shy of 7705 (Smashlevel), which was our main pivot for the today. This ultimately marked the high of the full session. The remainder of the overnight session consolidated around 7676 (DT1), Friday’s inside-day low, with the ON VPOC at 7677 further highlighting the concentration of trading around this level.

An inside-day breakdown was initiated immediately in the RTH session, resulting in a traverse of Thursday’s lower distribution and testing 7659 (DT2) in the process. Sellers were unable to sustain the continuation below last week’s low, leading to a couple of solid reversals. From an order flow perspective, I particularly liked the D-period reversal after aggressive sellers attempted to establish a new intraday low but were instead absorbed (see Figure 1). Buyers were ultimately unable to regain acceptance back within Friday’s range, and the auction instead build value within Thursday’s lower distribution.

The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted lower from 7726 to 7671. Value continues to follow price, suggesting no meaningful shift in the short-term tone. However, I want to point out once again that while short-term control remains with sellers, trade location for initiating new shorts is rather unfavorable from an HTF perspective, as the auction approaches the multi-week balance breakout point. This may be one reason why the market is lacking meaningful conviction (short-term structure bearish, long-term bullish).

Session Recap

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The market continues to develop value lower, consistent with sellers maintaining short-term control, but the pace of the downside move remains relatively measured. Notable absorption was observed around last week’s low at 7659 today, a key level sellers need to gain acceptance below. Acceptance above 7683, last week’s VAL, would be short-term bullish.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7683, last week’s VAL. Holding below 7683 keeps downside pressure intact and targets last week’s low at 7659 (DT1). Acceptance below 7659 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the unfilled bull gap at 7637 (DT2), with 7618 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7683 shifts focus to 7705 (UT1), with 7720 (FUT), the unfilled bear gap, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7683.

• Break and hold above 7683 would target 7705 / 7720

• Holding below 7683 would target 7659 / 7637 / 7618

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.62 and 15.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7720 with VIX below 15.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7618 with VIX above 16.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Friday’s session was rather uneventful, forming an inside day within Thursday’s upper distribution. Note how responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of Thursday’s lower distribution, rejecting Thursday’s closing weakness.

As we’ve discussed, the market is now approaching a significant HTF area: the breakout point of the prior multi-week balance. How the auction behaves around this area will be crucial to monitor next week. As long as the breakout is defended, the broader bullish structure remains intact. Failure to defend it could meaningfully shift the tone.

Session Recap

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Last week featured two sustained bear gaps, keeping sellers in short-term control. Friday’s inside day suggests short-term balance.

The key for sellers on early strength will be to defend the bear gap at 7720, while buyers will need to defend the multi-week balance breakout around the 7637 bull gap.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7705, Thursday’s afternoon rally high. Holding below 7705 keeps downside pressure intact and targets 7676 (DT1). Acceptance below 7676 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7659 (DT2), with 7637 (FDT), the unfilled bull gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7705 shifts focus to the bear gap at 7720 (UT1), with 7746 (FUT), last week’s VAH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7705.

• Break and hold above 7705 would target 7720 / 7746

• Holding below 7705 would target 7676 / 7659 / 7637

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.86 and 14.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7746 with VIX below 14.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 15.86 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Weekly Levels in Review

Last week kicked off with a failure to defend the low volume node (LVN) at 7793, triggering a failed-breakout scenario. In the event of a failed breakout, the primary objective was a rotation toward 7725, which was completed on Tuesday following a sustained true gap down (7766).

Wednesday established value above the prior day, but buyers were unable to fully fill Tuesday’s true gap, which was a sign of weakness. The session ultimately closed back within Tuesday’s range, making the short-term picture somewhat tricky.

The key for buyers was to defend 7725, which they ultimately failed to do on Thursday following another sustained true gap down (7720) that led to the formation of a double distribution trend day. We closed out the week with a rather uneventful inside day on Friday.

As we’ve discussed, the market is now approaching a significant HTF area: the breakout point of the prior multi-week balance (see Figure 1). How the auction behaves around this area will be crucial to monitor next week. As long as the breakout is defended, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A failure to do so could meaningfully shift the tone.

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Eastern Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟥 Daily: OTFD | Ends at: 7714
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 3W | High: 7838.50 / Low: 7542.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7345.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the multi-week balance breakout initiated earlier this month, when the market gapped above the prior ATH at 7648. Last week featured two sustained bear gaps and ended the weekly one-time framing higher, resulting in short-term weakness and a rotation lower. While sellers maintain short-term control, the broader structure remains bullish.

If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the bear gap at 7720, which aligns closely with the Weekly VWAP at 7723 and Weekly VPOC at 7726. Failure to defend this area would be short-term bullish.

If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend the multi-week balance breakout around the 7637 gap, which notably aligns with the prior SPX ATH at 7620. Failure to defend this area could meaningfully shift the tone of the broader structure.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7720, Thursday’s true gap down. Break and hold above 7720 would target Monday’s true gap at 7766. Acceptance above 7766 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.

This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so would shift the weekly timeframe back to one-time framing higher.

Holding below 7720 would maintain short-term downside pressure, targeting the unfilled bull gap at 7637, which aligns closely with the prior SPX ATH at 7620. Acceptance below 7637, indicating a failed breakout, would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.

This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door for a return to the HVN at 7440.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7720.

• Break and hold above 7720 would target 7766 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935

• Holding below 7720 would target 7637 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485 / 7440

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The conditions were straightforward heading into today’s session. Buyers needed to reclaim 7746 to demonstrate strength, while failure to do so, coupled with acceptance back into Tuesday’s value area, would favor continued downside pressure. Sellers stepped in at 7746 overnight (ON high: 7746.50), and the level ultimately capped the entire session. Acceptance back into Tuesday’s range, combined with the failure to reclaim 7726 (Smashlevel) during the European session, resulted in notable downside continuation, clearing all intraday targets down to 7681 (FDT). A solid bounce from 7681 unfolded ahead of the RTH session.

As highlighted in the pre-market update, the key for buyers heading into the RTH session was to reclaim 7706 (DT1), with the market opening with another true gap down. The morning session was largely about buyers attempting to reclaim the level, but the C-period was the only 30-minute close above it, highlighting the persistent presence of sellers. Notable absorption was observed around 7706 (see Figure 1). The failed Initial Balance extension in the D-period, during which the gap at 7720.75 remained unfilled (HOD: 7720), marked the starting point for another downside leg. The poor structure from August 4 was fully cleaned up in the process, with the market now approaching the bull gap at 7637.75.

Session Recap

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Failure to reclaim 7746 and acceptance back into Tuesday’s value were the conditions for continued downside pressure, which ultimately unfolded today. A double distribution profile was established in the process, with three sets of single prints and a closing M-period spike.

The market is now approaching a significant HTF area: the breakout point of the prior multi-week balance. How the auction behaves around this area, which also contains the unfilled gap at 7637.75, will be crucial to monitor in the upcoming sessions. While sellers maintain short-term control of the auction, buyers remain in control from a broader-picture perspective—something that could change if the multi-week balance breakout is not defended.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7669, the M-period spike base. Holding below 7669 keeps the downside pressure intact and targets the unfilled gap at 7637 (DT1). Acceptance below 7637 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the Weekly Extreme Low at 7620 (DT2), with 7589 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7669 shifts focus to 7690 (UT1). Acceptance above 7690 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7705 (UT2), with 7720 (FUT), the unfilled gap, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7669.

• Break and hold above 7669 would target 7690 / 7705 / 7720

• Holding below 7669 would target 7637 / 7620 / 7589

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.74 and 15.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7720 with VIX below 15.26 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7589 with VIX above 16.74 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Sellers attempted to break and hold below 7706 (DT1) during the Asian session but ultimately failed to gain downside traction. During the European session, the auction consolidated within Tuesday’s range before headlines triggered a notable spike higher, tagging 7750 (UT1) in the process. Heading into the RTH session, we had a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7706 and a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7750.

The RTH session opened with a true gap up following the overnight strength. The overnight spike was fully retraced during the A-period, with the auction filling the gap and testing 7726 (Smashlevel), where responsive buyers stepped in. The failure to gain traction within Tuesday’s value area resulted in bullish continuation, with the Initial Balance extending to the upside. Notably, buyers came a few ticks shy of filling Tuesday’s true gap down at 7766.25 (HOD: 7764.75). The failure to fully close the gap suggests that stronger buyers were absent today. During the afternoon session, the auction returned to the Initial Balance range and consolidated, with the session ultimately closing back within Tuesday’s range. The market-generated information is a bit conflicting now, making trading conditions tricky. The daily is back to balance after breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Session Recap

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Today’s session established value above the prior day, but buyers were unable to fully fill Tuesday’s true gap, which was a sign of weakness. The session ultimately closed back within Tuesday’s range, making the short-term picture a bit tricky.

A bullish development would involve continued value migration higher and a reclaim of both the Monthly and Weekly VWAPs, which closely align with today’s VAH. Failure to do so, combined with acceptance back into Tuesday’s value area, would open the door to continued downside pressure.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7726, Tuesday’s opening level. Holding above 7726 signals stability and targets 7746 (UT1). Acceptance above 7746 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7766 (UT2), with 7779 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7726 shifts focus to 7706 (DT1), with 7681 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7726.

• Holding above 7726 would target 7746 / 7766 / 7779

• Break and hold below 7726 would target 7706 / 7681

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.64 and 14.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7779 with VIX below 14.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7681 with VIX above 15.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Monday’s double-distribution trend day lower, which rejected last week’s late strength, saw immediate downside continuation overnight after failing to even test the aggressive resistance at 7772 (ONH: 7770.25). The potential scenario involved a rotation toward the lower end of the prior multi-day balance (7725), which was already achieved ahead of the RTH open. Responsive buyers stepped in at 7725 (DT2), but buyers were ultimately unable to generate a meaningful bounce.

The RTH session opened with a sizable true gap down, a condition that often triggers an inventory correction after the open. Failure to see a meaningful counter-auction is a bearish indication, suggesting that the overnight inventory remains in control. The RTH session was rather uneventful, as we saw neither an inventory correction nor meaningful downside continuation. Instead, the auction spent most of the day trading around the 7725 level, building a distribution. The closing weakness came a few handles shy of the FDT at 7706, partially cleaning up the poor structure from August 4. The daily is now one-time framing down, while the weekly timeframe is back in balance after ending its one-time framing higher.

Session Recap

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Today’s session saw downside continuation after a true gap down, completing the bearish scenario with a rotation toward the prior multi-day balance low and partially cleaning up the poor structure from August 4 in the process.

The key question now is which gap will be filled first: today’s bear gap at 7766.25 or the bull gap at 7637.75. This makes value development relative to today’s value particularly important to monitor in the short term.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7750 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7706 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7726, today’s opening level, which aligns with the afternoon rally high and FS VWAP. Holding below 7726 targets 7706 (DT1). Acceptance below 7706 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7681 (DT2), with 7637 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7726 shifts focus to 7750 (UT1). Acceptance above 7750 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7766 (UT2), with 7779 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7726.

• Break and hold above 7726 would target 7750 / 7766 / 7779

• Holding below 7726 would target 7706 / 7681 / 7637

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.66 and 15.04. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7779 with VIX below 15.04 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 16.66 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Trading activity during the overnight session remained contained within Friday’s range, with 7814 (Smashlevel) acting as a key pivot. Buyers controlled the level throughout the European session but lost it ahead of the RTH open following a move driven by news headlines.

The RTH session opened near the lower end of Friday’s range, with Friday’s low taken out rather quickly, leading to a test of the crucial 7793 (DT1) level separating last week’s distributions. The auction notably stalled at 7793, where it spent the morning chopping around. Passive buyers were present in the 7793–7789 area, where we expected buyers to defend. This provided a couple of opportunities to look for long entries, but buyers ultimately failed to gain traction back into Friday’s range. The VIX was hovering around its resistance level at 15.02 at the time. Change took place in the H-period, as the market broke down from the distribution built around 7793. This resulted in a quick move down to the high volume node at 7774 (DT2), which had been identified as a downside magnet if last week’s late breakout failed to hold.

Session Recap

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Today’s session was a great example of auction dynamics: markets transition from balance to imbalance, but when that imbalance fails, price often returns to the prior balance area where value was established—in this case, the HVN at 7774. A double distribution profile was formed in the process, with single prints developing in the H-period.

The key question now is whether the failed breakout will lead to a rotation toward the opposite side of the range and potentially clean up some of the unfinished business below. This scenario remains in play as long as acceptance is not established back within today’s upper distribution.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7793 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7759 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7779, with aggressive resistance at 7772. Holding below 7779 targets 7759 (DT1). Acceptance below 7759 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7725 (DT2), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7779 shifts focus to 7793 (UT1). Acceptance above 7793 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7814 (UT2), with 7837 (FUT), serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7779.

• Break and hold above 7779 would target 7793 / 7814 / 7837

• Holding below 7779 would target 7759 / 7725 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.96 and 14.38. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7837 with VIX below 14.38 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 15.96 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Subscribe now

Contextual Analysis & Plan

A breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend occurred on Thursday, printing new all-time highs in the process. The market is one-time framing higher across all time frames, signaling strength until proven otherwise. Friday’s session consolidated Thursday’s gains, forming an inside day, which technically does not end the daily one-time framing higher. However, it does suggest short-term balance.

Session Recap

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As we’ve discussed, last week’s price action can be separated into two distributions. Thursday’s breakout and Friday’s inside day mark the upper distribution, while the lower distribution essentially represents the high volume area where most of the volume was traded over the past two weeks. Value development relative to the low volume node separating the two distributions will be key to monitor in the short term.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7837 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7793 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7814, Friday’s IB low. Holding below 7814 targets the LVN at 7793 (DT1). Acceptance below 7793 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7774 (DT2), with 7759 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7814 shifts focus to 7837 (UT1), with 7855 (FUT), the Monthly Extreme High, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7814.

• Break and hold above 7814 would target 7837 / 7855

• Holding below 7814 would target 7793 / 7774 / 7759

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.02 and 13.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7855 with VIX below 13.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7759 with VIX above 15.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

Contents

• Last Week in Review & Thoughts on NQ

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Last Week in Review

Last week’s plan:

Weekly Levels in Review

Last week kicked off with three days of consolidation, with 7784 (Weekly Smashlevel) capping the upside. This consolidation remained bullish in the context of the recent multi-week balance breakout, as reiterated throughout the week, with the market continuing to accept higher prices. The fact that the market continued to show no interest in filling the poor structure from the multi-week balance breakout was another bullish nuance.

It’s important to distinguish between poor structure formed within a balanced market and poor structure created during a breakout. These are two very different situations. Poor structure within balance is generally more likely to be cleaned up, whereas poor structure created during a genuine breakout can be much more likely to remain intact.

Change took place on Thursday, as the auction once again attempted to transition from balance to imbalance on the daily timeframe, printing new all-time highs in the process (see Figure 1).

The market held above the key 7784 level early in the session, leading to an impulsive move higher. While this initial move was difficult to catch, the first pullback provided an excellent opportunity to join the move as selling pressure was absorbed by passive buyers (see Figure 2).

Thursday’s shift in tone and Friday’s inside day led to the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile, and the low volume node separating the two distributions is now of short-term interest. Note that the weekly VPOC failed to migrate higher, making it a potential downside magnet if Thursday’s breakout fails.

A quick note on NQ: following the failure to hold below the HTF level at 27930, a sharp counter-auction unfolded. Two levels were shared last week, 30030 and 29390, and I would continue to monitor both. 30030 was breached on Thursday, with buyers defending the level on Friday (see Figure 3). Holding above 30030 targets the multi-week balance highs, while failure to do so would open the door to a revisit of 29390.

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Economic & Earnings Calendar

Eastern Standard Time

Earnings Whispers

Market Structure

🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends at: 7796.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends at: 7738
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7345.75

Contextual Analysis & Plan

For this week, the main focus will be on buyers’ ability to sustain the multi-day balance breakout initiated on Thursday, which led to a new all-time high and the formation of a double distribution on the weekly profile.

Immediate attention is on the low volume node separating the two distributions around 7793. Continued value building above this LVN would keep both the breakout and the broader imbalance phase intact as the market continues to search for value.

A failure to defend the LVN, suggesting a failed breakout, could increase confidence in a move in the opposite direction. The primary objective would be to traverse last week’s lower distribution toward the 7735–7725 support area. There’s plenty of poor structure below this support, but even if it gets filled, buyers remain in control from a bigger-picture perspective as long as the multi-week balance breakout remains intact.

The weekly Smashlevel is 7793, the LVN separating last week’s distributions. Holding above 7793 keeps the breakout intact and targets the Monthly Extreme High at 7855, which aligns closely with the 50% range extension from the multi-week balance area (7849). Acceptance above 7855 would signal continued strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7905 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7935, where selling activity can be expected.

Such a move would effectively complete the bullish imbalance from two week’s ago. The faster the market approaches this resistance, the more cautious late buyers should be.

Break and hold below 7793 would reject the breakout, targeting 7725. Acceptance below 7725 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7650 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7620, where buying activity can be expected.

This support area, which coincides with Tuesday’s gap at 7637 and the prior multi-week balance high 7648, is crucial for buyers to defend. A failure to do so would bring a failed balance breakout into play, opening the door to a shift in the broader tone.

Visual Representation

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Key Levels of Interest

In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7793.

• Holding above 7793 would target 7855 / 7905 | 7935* / 7970 / 7810

• Break and hold below 7793 would target 7725 / 7650 / 7620* / 7589 / 7541

As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session saw a slow upward grind toward the key 7784 level, which has attracted responsive sellers throughout the week. Another pop above 7784 was sold ahead of the PPI release (see Figure 1). Much like the CPI, the reaction to PPI was muted, but 7784 was reclaimed heading into RTH. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) overnight was 7783.50.

The market opened above 7784 on both Tuesday and Wednesday, with both attempts met by immediate selling activity. If we look at the composite profile from the recent multi-day balance area, where I’ve merged the profiles, we can see that 7784 marks the upper end of the high volume area, suggesting that acceptance above this area was needed to meaningfully shift the tone. Unlike Tuesday and Wednesday, buyers were able to defend 7784 early in the session (LOD: 7785.50), which essentially triggered a directional move.

7810 (UT2) was tagged almost immediately, leading to a small pullback that provided a great opportunity to join the move if not already in, targeting 7836 (FUT). I’ll provide a visual of this sequence on Substack, given how interesting it was from an order flow perspective (see Figure 2). The final upside target at 7836 was tagged in the B-period, which ended up capping today’s upside. Even though the auction was bullish from the open, trade location remains key. If you were not part of the move early, chasing new longs at 7836 (FUT) was not ideal.

Session Recap

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The auction is once again attempting to transition from balance to imbalance in the direction of the prevailing trend after today’s breakout to new ATHs. Now we monitor for continuation (acceptance) or a failure to do so (rejection).

Today’s halfback at 7813, aligning with last week’s VAH, is the immediate level of interest, along with aggressive support at 7820, the prior ATH.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7837 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7793 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7813, last week’s VAH, which aligns with today’s halfback. Holding above 7813 targets 7837 (UT1). Acceptance above 7837 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7855 (UT2), with 7888 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7813 shifts focus to 7793 (DT1), with 7759 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7813.

• Holding above 7813 would target 7837 / 7855 / 7888

• Break and hold below 7813 would target 7793 / 7759

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.42 and 13.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7888 with VIX below 13.86 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7759 with VIX above 15.42 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Last week, we discussed how trading conditions could be tricky after Monday’s and Tuesday’s notably one-sided auctions. The main reason was that the market had moved too much, too fast, at one point trading 300 handles above both the 5D and 20D VPOCs. For context, Wednesday’s high came within 35 handles of the Monthly Extreme High, despite it being only the third trading day of the month. That said, the subsequent auction behavior, with the market essentially going nowhere, is not too surprising.

The key takeaway is that buyers are doing exactly what they are supposed to do after a directional move: building value and accepting higher prices, while shifting both the 5D and 20D VPOCs higher into the current short-term balance. This doesn’t automatically mean that the balance will resolve with a break to the upside, but that remains the expected behavior. The market has now formed a 6-day balance, and sellers are yet to clean up the poor structure from last Tuesday, suggesting a clear lack of meaningful selling pressure. Reminder: even if the poor structure were to be cleaned up, sellers would still need to negate the breakout by gaining acceptance back into the prior multi-week balance area to meaningfully shift the tone. Personally, I would actually prefer to see a liquidation break that cleans up the structural deficiencies below, traps sellers at poor locations, and attracts stronger buyers at better locations for a continuation higher.

Session Recap

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The auction remains balanced following today’s muted reaction to the CPI data, with the market now forming a 6-day balance.

Our key pivot for the week at 7784 continues to attract responsive sellers (see Figure 1); however, the lack of interest in cleaning up last week’s poor structure suggests that there are still no signs of stronger sellers (bullish consolidation). PPI is on deck tomorrow.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7784 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7725 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7759, the upper end of Tuesday’s main distribution. Holding above 7759 targets 7784 (UT1). Acceptance above 7784 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7810 (UT2), with 7836 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7759 shifts focus to 7725 (DT1), with 7706 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7759.

• Holding above 7759 would target 7784 / 7810 / 7836

• Break and hold below 7759 would target 7725 / 7706

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.32 and 13.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7836 with VIX below 13.82 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7706 with VIX above 15.32 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.