For New Subscribers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

For New Subscribers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

For New Subscribers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Read more

For New Subscribers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upsid…

Read more

Contents

• Last Week in Review

• Economic & Earnings Calendar

• Market Structure

• Contextual Analysis & Plan

• Key Levels of Interest

Read more

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

During the overnight session, the auction formed a balanced profile at the lower end of Wednesday’s range, with the most traded price by volume (VPOC) at 7745, our immediate downside level of interest (DT1). This was a short-term bearish development, given the lack of interest in even attempting to reclaim last week’s low at 7778 (Smashlevel).

Overnight weakness, or rather the lack of strength, led to the RTH session opening with a true gap down, just as it did on Wednesday. The early price action was also very similar, with the gap filling immediately in the A-period before sellers stepped in, triggering a classic gap-fill reversal. The key difference today was sellers’ inability to gain acceptance below the overnight low after the gap fill. Acceptance below the ONL is typically the most bearish outcome following a gap down. A Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of the overnight low, which came within a few handles of the Weekly Extreme Low and FDT at 7710, ultimately marked the session low.

There was a big battle at 7745 (DT1) during the B-period, with aggressive buying standing out in the delta profile shown on the chart. When gapping lower, the most bullish outcome is acceptance back into the prior day’s range, which made this activity an unfavorable sign for sellers. Buyers ultimately got rewarded for their efforts, triggering a squeeze in the C-period. In the process, the auction revisited last week’s low at 7778, where upside momentum notably stalled before buyers resumed their push higher in the L-period.

Session Recap

Sellers were unable to sustain a second consecutive true gap lower today, resulting in a double distribution trend day to the upside, with single prints in the C-period and a close back inside last week’s range.

The key now for buyers is to defend last week’s low at 7778 and reclaim last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with both the Weekly and Monthly VWAPs. This would set the stage for a return to the HVN, where value was established early in the week.

Failure to do so would open the door to a fill of today’s single prints at 7754, with acceptance within today’s lower distribution marking a bearish development.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7778.

• Holding above 7778 would target 7807 / 7824 / 7848

• Break and hold below 7778 would target 7754 / 7726

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.28 and 15.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7848 with VIX below 15.64 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7726 with VIX above 17.28 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

In contrast to Monday and Tuesday, we saw some volatility today. Overnight, buyers initially defended 7848 (DT1) before reclaiming 7866 (Smashlevel) ahead of the release. However, the tone shifted significantly after CPI, with sellers taking control and setting the stage for the RTH session to open with a true gap down.

When the auction opens with a true gap in either direction, it signals a shift in tone relative to the prior session. Our job is then to assess whether that shift will be accepted or rejected. Buyers initially defended the opening level, allowing the auction to fill today’s gap at 7834.50, where sellers stepped in. This classic gap-fill reversal provided an early clue of weakness, as the potential shift in tone remained intact. Subsequently, sellers broke below the overnight low, providing a second clue of weakness.

The final downside target at 7807 (FDT) was already tagged in the B-period. At the time, the VIX was still holding below its resistance at 15.94. However, value was building below 7807, negating the potential for a reversal. A quick LBAF at 7807 would have been a different story. The Initial Balance was then extended to the downside in the C-period, with the VIX breaking above its resistance later in the session, which typically signals the potential for continued weakness.

The true gap at 7741.25 was filled almost to the tick in the J-period, marking the session low in confluence with the MA50 (see Figure 1). If you have reviewed the Weekly Plan, you know that weekly support lies between 7740 and 7710, meaning we are now at a critical area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold this area would open the door to a rotation down to the multi-week balance low, following the failed breakout.

Session Recap

The market was coiling for a directional move, and today’s CPI release ultimately served as a catalyst for a move lower. The auction has now rotated back toward the high volume node at 7770, making the behavior around this HVN key to monitor in the short term.

On the upside, buyers need to reclaim two key levels: last week’s low at 7778 and last week’s VAL at 7807, which aligns with the Monthly VWAP. Failure to reclaim these levels would maintain downside pressure. PPI on deck tomorrow.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7778.

• Break and hold above 7778 would target 7807 / 7824

• Holding below 7778 would target 7745 / 7710

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.64 and 16.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7824 with VIX below 16.10 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7710 with VIX above 17.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Given today’s uneventful session and the unchanged context, there’s no need for an extensive analysis. Buyers remain unable to reclaim last week’s VAH at 7866 (UT1), while sellers have struggled to gain meaningful traction below the prior ATH at 7848, keeping the auction in short-term balance. The last three sessions have closed within a couple of handles of one another, highlighting the lack of directional conviction.

Session Recap

Trading activity during Monday’s and today’s sessions remained contained within Friday’s range, suggesting the auction is coiling for a directional move, with tomorrow’s CPI release potentially serving as a catalyst. A meaningful shift in tone would require acceptance outside last week’s value area.

Reclaiming last week’s VAH at 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915

• Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.94 and 14.60. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.60 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Subscribe now

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

Catalysts

Contextual Analysis & Plan

Quick update: Despite the lack of directional movement, great trading opportunities emerged around our key levels of interest. Buyers reclaimed 7866 (Smashlevel) immediately overnight, triggering a traverse of Tuesday’s value area toward 7887 (UT1), where sellers stepped in to the tick. The overnight strength was retraced ahead of the RTH session, with the auction returning to 7866.

Failure to reclaim 7866 early in RTH put sellers in control during the Initial Balance. However, the downside move stalled in the 7855s, where passive buyers absorbed aggressive selling. This resulted in a poor low forming across the B and C periods. With sellers failing to make further progress, they were quickly put under pressure as aggressive buyers stepped in during the D and E periods, triggering a solid bounce.

The Smashlevel at 7866 was then revisited, producing a strong rejection in confluence with the FS VWAP (see Figure 1). Aggressive buyers were absorbed before sellers stepped back in. The poor low was cleaned up during the afternoon session, with the auction testing 7848 (DT1), where a closing bounce unfolded. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 7824 to 7855.

Session Recap

The context remains unchanged following today’s rather uneventful inside day. The auction remained contained between our two key levels: 7866, last week’s VAH, and 7848, the prior ATH and multi-week balance high. Both remain key references to monitor in the short term.

Reclaiming 7866 would be a short-term bullish development, opening the door to a traverse of Tuesday’s value area. Failure to defend 7848 would open the door to a rotation lower toward last week’s VAL at 7807, which closely aligns with the Monthly VWAP.

Visual Representation

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7866.

• Break and hold above 7866 would target 7887 / 7915

• Holding below 7866 would target 7848 / 7830 / 7807

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.98 and 14.44. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7915 with VIX below 14.44 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7807 with VIX above 15.98 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.